Election Predictions
- Voronwë the Faithful
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- Túrin Turambar
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Re: Election Predictions
Alright, here goes:
I. Presidency
1. Who will win the Presidency?
Barack Obama
2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?
(a) Popular Vote 53-46
(b) Electoral Vote 393-145
3. Which states will go for which candidates?
Obama to carry all Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
II. Senate
1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. Senate?
The Democrats.
2. What will be its composition?
59-41, including the two independents in the Democratic Caucus.
III. House of Representatives
1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. House of Representatives?
The Democrats.
2. What will be its composition?
251-183
I'm feeling bold.
I. Presidency
1. Who will win the Presidency?
Barack Obama
2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?
(a) Popular Vote 53-46
(b) Electoral Vote 393-145
3. Which states will go for which candidates?
Obama to carry all Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
II. Senate
1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. Senate?
The Democrats.
2. What will be its composition?
59-41, including the two independents in the Democratic Caucus.
III. House of Representatives
1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. House of Representatives?
The Democrats.
2. What will be its composition?
251-183
I'm feeling bold.
- Túrin Turambar
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- Voronwë the Faithful
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- Dave_LF
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I think you've got more long shots than that, but I also expect people who still call themselves undecided to break strongly for McCain if they vote at all. Also, early voter data is showing that while blacks are indeed voting in record numbers, young people are not (and it seems like the youth would be the group most likely to vote early, if they were going to do it at all). In that spirit, I'll crosspost my secondary prediction here: close states where Obama is polling below 48% on Monday will go for McCain, even if McCain appears to be polling even lower. States where he's between 48% and 50% will be close.Lord_Morningstar wrote:My two long shots are Georgia and North Dakota
The exception could be Montana, where Ron Paul will be on the ballot. I think that state is the one mostly likely to deliver a surprise Obama upset.
Edit: This prediction is very detailed and well reasoned. By which I mean that it mostly agrees with my own.
- Dave_LF
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Well, young people tend to be more enthusiastic (this year), which is a factor that contributes to early voting. However, they also tend to be procrastinators, which pushes in the opposite direction. And if first-time voters can't vote early, that would be another push. So you might be right. :knock knock:
I voted today. The early voting polling place I went to was on campus. The back of the line was at the 100 foot limit and people were piling in behind me. I was one of the oldest people in the line...and I'm 27!axordil wrote:In many states that have early voting, first-time voters (meaning a chunk of young voters) cannot use it.
In any case, I have to disagree about young voters being the most likely to vote early. Historically it's always been the opposite.
When you can do nothing what can you do?
- Dave_LF
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It is possible. For example, you could get it by giving Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada to McCain, and Virgina, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico to Obama (NV and NM could be the other way around since they're both worth 5). 538's simulations came up with that number about 3.5% of the time yesterday.Maria wrote:This completely unbased on any kind of logic or research: 297 electoral votes for Obama. I don't even know if that's possible, but that's what popped into my head when I guessed.
I think that's how close you can come with campaign slogans or something. There was a big sign marking it and a bunch of people in Obama t-shirts had to strip to get past it.Cerin wrote:What is the '100 ft. limit', River?
Fortunately, they were prepared and were wearing undershirts.
A couple students, no idea who they were affiliated with, worked the line with free snacks and bottles of water. That was nice.
When you can do nothing what can you do?
306 - 232 Obama
Here's a cool toy for you all - an interactive map where you can assign states to each candidate (it starts with Kerry/Bush results so you don't have to do ALL the work) and see results, here: http://douweosinga.com/projects/thenextpresident
Here's a cool toy for you all - an interactive map where you can assign states to each candidate (it starts with Kerry/Bush results so you don't have to do ALL the work) and see results, here: http://douweosinga.com/projects/thenextpresident
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.
Terry Pratchett, Guards! Guards!
Terry Pratchett, Guards! Guards!
- Túrin Turambar
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- Primula Baggins
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I made a big electoral vote prediction, and every time I think about coming in here to walk it back, I feel this sort of subterranean rumbling.
We'll see. It might be something I ate.
We'll see. It might be something I ate.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
hello all. I feel tomorrow will be pretty crazy. thought I'd weigh in with a different view.
Obama takes Popular vote 51-47, due to massive wins in states he will easily carry.
McCain wins electoral college 273-265, causing massive chaos throughout the country as the election "must have been stolen."
My reasoning... that the polls are massively distorted for Obama, which pushes all swing states to basically even... Also, I think turnout will match traditional ratios, although it will be up on all sides. The net result is an advantage to McCain in swing states, leading him to win what he needs... the key in my opinion, is New Hampshire.
Obama takes Popular vote 51-47, due to massive wins in states he will easily carry.
McCain wins electoral college 273-265, causing massive chaos throughout the country as the election "must have been stolen."
My reasoning... that the polls are massively distorted for Obama, which pushes all swing states to basically even... Also, I think turnout will match traditional ratios, although it will be up on all sides. The net result is an advantage to McCain in swing states, leading him to win what he needs... the key in my opinion, is New Hampshire.
- Primula Baggins
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Well, Obama just took Dixville Notch, NH, 15-6. But that isn't determinative; Bush won in '04 and Kerry took the state.
We'll see what we see, Hal. I do want to point out that a 4-point popular vote margin would probably preclude a loss in the electoral vote. But again, we'll see.
About a third of us have already voted, too.
We'll see what we see, Hal. I do want to point out that a 4-point popular vote margin would probably preclude a loss in the electoral vote. But again, we'll see.
About a third of us have already voted, too.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King