The (no longer) much too early 2024 election thread

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Gotcha.

[Frelga]

That would be a huge win for Democrats surely? Split the Republican vote?

Yes, that's why GOP can't risk dropping him. I think it was Lindsey Graham who said in 2016 that if they nominated Trump, he would destroy the Republican party.

MAGA aligned candidates tend to do well in GOP primaries, less well in general elections. We've seen this in these midterms.

There's a PTerry quote for that

He surveyed the faces of men who now knew that they were riding a tiger. It had been a good ride up until a week or so ago. It wasn’t a case of not being able to get off. They could get off. That was not the problem. The problem was that the tiger knew where they lived.

Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm not sure I agree with this, but I'm not sure I don't.

[Eldy]

[Dave_LF]

I'm not sure I agree with this, but I'm not sure I don't.

I agree except for sentence one--the right Republican nominee could win even if the die-hard Trumpists sat out, and Trump could win even if his opponents were galvanized.

And an awful lot can change in two years.

[Frelga]

Eldy, it was a surprise to me how RT covered Trump's presidency back then. I expected them to take the line that he was unfairly persecuted because of his support for Russia, to praise him for being on their side. Nope, they always treated him as a clown.

[River]

If Trump isn't the nominee he might very well launch an independent run. Anything to stay in the spotlight, any excuse to hold rallies and soak in applause, anything for the massive surge of narcissistic supply he can only get from his political endeavors.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Another potential contender.

GOP Arkansas governor says he’s ‘very seriously’ considering 2024 presidential bid

[N.E. Brigand]

I'm not sure I agree with this, but I'm not sure I don't.

Just four days ago, Christopher Bouzy said Democrats were going to retain control of the House of Representatives.



Just three days ago, he said that despite having pledged before this year's election that he would delete his Twitter account if Democrats didn't add at least two seats in the House, he would let his readers decide his fate, given that Democrats "will gain just one" seat.

Democrats currently have 220 House seats (they've had as many as 222 and as few as 219 during this 117th U.S. Congressional session). So Bouzy was saying, on Nov. 14, that Democrats would start the 118th Congress with 221 House seats.

It's now clear that Democrats will have 217 seats at most, and most prognosticators think 213 is the likeliest outcome.

To be fair, Bouzy had made other predictions that proved to be correct. But those two examples show that he's not reliable.

[N.E. Brigand]

Has a serious candidate for president ever launched their campaign this early?

Not sure about "serious" or "ever," but here's a graph from the Washington Post:

[Inanna]

Close to the median, then.

[N.E. Brigand]

This anti-Trump ad is likely to amuse his critics and bore his fans, but one point it emphasizes caught my attention. This was first noticed this during his first 2016 debate with Hillary Clinton, as I recall: in some speeches and other public appearances, he repeatedly sniffs very loudly. There have been lots of jokes about possible causes, but even if it's simply a matter of him frequently suffering from allergies or colds, you'd think by now his team would have advised him to be a little more self-aware and not to do it so prominently.

[N.E. Brigand]

The New York Times reports that Donald Trump, who just announced his 2024 presidential candidacy, has recently signed a development deal directly with the government of Oman. (This deal was first reported about a week ago, but it was then described as a deal between Trump and a Saudi real estate developer.)

This strikes me as a serious conflict of interest for someone vying to be President of the United States.

[RoseMorninStar]

If Trump isn't the nominee he might very well launch an independent run. Anything to stay in the spotlight, any excuse to hold rallies and soak in applause, anything for the massive surge of narcissistic supply he can only get from his political endeavors.

Yes these things and also begging fund raising. The 'stop the steal ' fund raiser is old news. He needed something new.

*edited for misspelling

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I said this in another thread, but I'm going to document it here as well. In January 2025, following the 2024 election, Hakeem Jeffries will become the first African-American Speaker of the House in U.S. history. In part because several of the New York seats that turned red in this past election will turn back blue.

[N.E. Brigand]

Since this thread is where Ron DeSantis was most recently mentioned, I'll note this here:

DeSantis's lawyers were forced by the court to define "woke." The lead lawyer described it as "The belief there are systemic injustices in American society and the need to address them."

This came up in a trial challenging DeSantis’s decision to suspend a State Attorney who signed a pledge not to prosecute women who seek abortions or doctors who perform them.

The attorney went on to say that DeSantis doesn't believe that there are systematic injustices in the U.S. The reason we've never had a woman as president is that women just aren't as good at leadership as men.

OK, he didn't say that last sentence, but if you deny systematic injustice, then there's really no other credible way to explain why the U.S. has never had a female leader, much less why women don't account for approximately half of U.S. presidents over the past 237 years, so you have to be a misogynist to deny systematic injustice. (The usual counterargument is that there used to be systematic injustice, but there isn't any longer, but no one making that argument can ever say when it ended.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Trump Is Already Facing a Lawsuit to Stop His 2024 Campaign

[N.E. Brigand]

Lost amidst the drawn out voting for House Speaker that finally concluded an hour ago was the news today (or yesterday) that former National Security Adviser John Bolton has announced that he's running for president in 2024.

[Eldy]

A bold attempt by Bolton, relic of neoconservatism's early-2000s heyday, to become the first President elected from the dustbin of history.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This says it all:

Source: Good Morning Britain, ITV

Did anyone in the U.S. even cover it as a story?