The (no longer) much too early 2024 election thread

[N.E. Brigand]

Josh Barro makes an interesting argument here that the extensive discussion about whether President Biden should step aside and not run for reelection in 2024 is driven in part by the news media's bias in favor of, well, news: "2023 is shaping up to be the least newsy year since 2014 ... Medium-sized stories, like the Chinese spy balloon and the zero-fatality train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, expand to be come large stories," the press is bored (and worried about their jobs), and so they start looking for stories that don't exist. Another pundit, Tom Mckenna, similarly made a comparison last month between 2023 and "2014-2015" because of some similarities between George Santos and Aaron Schock. Who?

Aaron Schock's name name was vaguely familiar to me, but I couldn't tell you more than that, and he's never been mentioned in these forums. Schock, a Republican from Illinios, was the first member of Congress born in the 1980s when he took office in 2009. He resigned in 2015 "amid a scandal involving his use of public and campaign funds. A subsequent congressional ethics investigation 'revealed that he used taxpayer money to fund lavish trips and events.'" He later struck a deal to avoid prosecution that required him to pay $100,000 as restitution. (He also came out as gay after leaving Congress, where he had backed some anti-LGBTQ legistlation.)

If Donald Trump is indicted, I think that could change the newsiness of 2023.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This is worth noting.

[N.E. Brigand]

Donald Trump spoke to a fairly small crowd at CPAC for about an hour tonight. Tom Nichols described it as "one of the craziest speeches" Trump has delivered. Among other things, Trump said this today: "In 2016 I declared I am your voice. Today I add, I am your warrior, I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. I will totally obliterate the deep state." He also said that there is a "revolution" inside the FBI and encouraged those FBI agents whom he believes are working to undermine investigations against him to "stay strong."

[N.E. Brigand]

Trump also claimed today that the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico was near to being completed at the end of his term, but the Biden administration "took it away and they hid it: they put it in a hiding area". (He apparently means preconstructed sections of wall.)

He also suggested that if he's not elected in 2024, "you're going to have World War III."

Also I was wrong: he spoke for more than 100 minutes, not just for an hour. Some of the more interesting excerpts can be seen here.

[Frelga]

Well this is mildly amusing.

Ron DeSantis hit with an ethics complaint from Trump super PAC

Trump’s team bases its complaint, in part, on Florida’s resign-to-run law, which requires politicians running for a new office to resign if the terms of the two offices will overlap. DeSantis was re-elected last year to another four-year term by a near-20-point margin.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Former Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson announces White House bid

[N.E. Brigand]

A supposedly non-partisan group called "No Labels" that has connections to Joe Lieberman and Joe Manchin has announced plans to run a third-party candidate in 2024. They seem to believe that they can put a candidate into a spoiler position to be chosen president by the House of Representatives. This might instead lead to Donald Trump winning.

(edited to fix typo)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Ralph Nader in reverse. But I'll worry about it once I see them actually take substantive steps to run a real candidate in real states.

[N.E. Brigand]

Sure to lose reelection in 2024: North Carolina state legislator Tricia Cotham, a longtime Democrat from a very Democratic district who is reportedly switching to the Republican Party. This will give Republicans a veto-proof majority in the legislature. That's important because the state's governor is a Democrat.

Cotham beat her Republican opponent by more than 18% last November, and her stated policy positions are all solidly liberal. But she recently skipped a vote which enabled Republicans to override the governor's veto and loosen the state's gun control laws. This seems like a huge betrayal to her voters, who are stuck with her for nearly two more years.

[N.E. Brigand]

Sure to lose reelection in 2024: North Carolina state legislator Tricia Cotham, a longtime Democrat from a very Democratic district who is reportedly switching to the Republican Party. This will give Republicans a veto-proof majority in the legislature. That's important because the state's governor is a Democrat.

Cotham beat her Republican opponent by more than 18% last November, and her stated policy positions are all solidly liberal. But she recently skipped a vote which enabled Republicans to override the governor's veto and loosen the state's gun control laws. This seems like a huge betrayal to her voters, who are stuck with her for nearly two more years.

The "official" take on Cotham's flip is that she's like Kyrsten Sinema: an opportunist who only pretended to have liberal policy positions when it was convenient for her. She had been out of office for six years, during which time she ingratiated herself with a lot of corporate supporters. There's also another take that I have seen multiple commentators allude to, although few say it as plainly as Greg Doucette does here. I'm not sure the two takes are incompatible!

[N.E. Brigand]

Sure to lose reelection in 2024: North Carolina state legislator Tricia Cotham, a longtime Democrat from a very Democratic district who is reportedly switching to the Republican Party. This will give Republicans a veto-proof majority in the legislature. That's important because the state's governor is a Democrat.

Cotham beat her Republican opponent by more than 18% last November, and her stated policy positions are all solidly liberal. But she recently skipped a vote which enabled Republicans to override the governor's veto and loosen the state's gun control laws. This seems like a huge betrayal to her voters, who are stuck with her for nearly two more years.

The "official" take on Cotham's flip is that she's like Kyrsten Sinema: an opportunist who only pretended to have liberal policy positions when it was convenient for her. She had been out of office for six years, during which time she ingratiated herself with a lot of corporate supporters. There's also another take that I have seen multiple commentators allude to, although few say it as plainly as Greg Doucette does here. I'm not sure the two takes are incompatible!

In a press conference yesterday, Cotham said that she's switching to the Republican Party because "the modern day Democratic Party has become unrecognizable to me." But just five months ago, she ran as a Democrat, championing Democratic positions, against a Republican opponent! What's changed since November?

[Frelga]

Trump’s South Florida supporters stick with him despite criminal charges. ‘If he doesn’t win in 2024, I’ll never vote again.’

And that's OK with me.

This sentiment is anecdotal more than scientific, and the article goes on to say how Trump's supporters are rallying behind him in the primaries. Bad news for DeSantis, I suppose.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[RoseMorninStar]

As one of the comments stated:

An alleged billionaire who is constantly begging for money from those who complain about the price of gas and eggs.

[N.E. Brigand]

Trump’s South Florida supporters stick with him despite criminal charges. ‘If he doesn’t win in 2024, I’ll never vote again.’

And that's OK with me.

This sentiment is anecdotal more than scientific, and the article goes on to say how Trump's supporters are rallying behind him in the primaries. Bad news for DeSantis, I suppose.

The Daily Mail reports that the reason Kent Stermon, the "political donor behind Ron DeSantis's rapid rise to prominence," killed himself in December was that "he was accused of having an inappropriate relationship with an underaged teen." It has previously been reported that he was under investigation by Jacksonville police for sexual misconduct. His suicide "came shortly after the girl's father turned down a 'five-figure sum' in a hush-money deal and reported him to the police instead." Stermon also "obtained highly sought-after Taylor Swift concert tickets which he said he'd give her if she sent him a photo of her breasts." In 2019, DeSantis had successfully "nominated Stermon to Florida's board of governors, the body which oversees the state's university system."

[N.E. Brigand]

It was announced today that the Pulitzer-prize winning news outlet Buzzfeed is shutting down, which led to people sharing this 2014 article by McCay Coppins about Donald Trump's political ambitions. After traveling with Trump on a visit to New Hampshire, Coppins predicted that Trump, as he had done leading up to the 1988, 2000, and 2012 elections, would ultimately decide not to run for president. (Coppins today: "Did we accidentally troll him into running for president? Who's to say.")

It's an interesting piece, even so. Three random things that caught my eye were a reference to Trump's club as "the Mar-a-Lago" (my emphasis), the fact that the club's members included Woody Allen, and Donald Trump eating a salad for lunch.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This video is so weird that some people are questioning whether it is fake. So far as I know, it is not.

[N.E. Brigand]

Four years ago today, Joe Biden announced his 2020 candidacy for president.

Today, President Joe Biden announced he is running for reelection in 2024.

[N.E. Brigand]

Four years ago today, Joe Biden announced his 2020 candidacy for president.

Today, President Joe Biden announced he is running for reelection in 2024.

Bernie Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont who was the second-place finisher in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic presidential primary races, said today that he is not running for president in 2024 and that he's endorsing President Biden to be next year's Democratic candidate.

[N.E. Brigand]

As I said in the other thread, I'm not a fan of Don Lemon, but as regards the historical facts in this interview with Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy -- and the New York Times has reported that Lemon's comments here led to CNN firing him (I am skeptical that's the whole story) -- Lemon is right and Ramaswamy is wrong.