Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Dave_LF]

Seems like it was probably a false flag, but one so sloppily done they can't have even been trying to fool anyone except their own citizens (who aren't actually fooled, but have learned to accept what they're told)?

[Frelga]

Well, Medvedev said that their only option now is to eliminate Zelenskyy, something they've been trying to do since day one. RT talkers have been frothing at the mouth at the idea of Zelenskyy walking around the Kyiv streets and visiting the front lines, and traveling to Europe (he is in Finland currently).

I wish Zelensky a long and prosperous life, but he is not a military genius responsible for winning the war. Taking out putin will plunge Russia into a bloody chaos. Striking down Zelenskyy will just make him into Obi-Wan.

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[Dave_LF]

Seems like it was probably a false flag, but one so sloppily done they can't have even been trying to fool anyone except their own citizens (who aren't actually fooled, but have learned to accept what they're told)?

Looks like the Institute for the Study of War thinks something similar:

[N.E. Brigand]

Do not click on this link if you don't want to see very graphic video of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Russian mercenary firm the Wagner Group (and a wanted man in the U.S. for his role in the internet campaign that targeted the 2016 presidential election), walking through a field of dozens of corpses that he are soldiers who would be alive if not for the incompetence of Russian military leaders Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov.

You can see the recently killed men (their blood is still warm, he says), but the audio is repeatedly bleeped to protect you from the (Russian) profanity.

[Frelga]

There was a lot of speculation on what would happen today in Moscow for the Victory Day* military parade. I don't think anyone had predicted them running one (1), singular, tank. Which was a WWII era T-34.

[Dave_LF]

In all the other news today, I haven’t seen any followup re Lukashenko, who was said to have been taken away after falling ill during his Victory Day visit to Moscow and absent from subsequent events.

[RoseMorninStar]

In all the other news today, I haven’t seen any followup re Lukashenko, who was said to have been taken away after falling ill during his Victory Day visit to Moscow and absent from subsequent events.

Did he fall out of a window?

[Dave_LF]

Between one article and another, it sounds as though he was already in poor health before the trip, left early, and had an ambulance in his entourage for at least part of the trip back to his plane (which is not to say he was IN the ambulance). And that he’s back in Minsk by now.

[Sunsilver]

In all the other news today, I haven’t seen any followup re Lukashenko, who was said to have been taken away after falling ill during his Victory Day visit to Moscow and absent from subsequent events.

Did he fall out of a window?

Rose, that thought crossed my mind. But since that wasn't mentioned, I though maybe it was poison!

[RoseMorninStar]

Dave, I'm sorry, that was my sarcasm leaking out. I was thinking along the lines of Sunny (poisoning).

[Dave_LF]

I know; I get it . But probably nothing quite so interesting. For now.

[RoseMorninStar]

I hope I never do anything to come to the notice of Russian hierarchy. I'm perfectly happy in my anonymity.

[Dave_LF]

Serious question: is it remotely likely Prigozhin had become too much of a rival and Putin sent him to Bakhmut specifically to get him killed (which hasn't happened yet; don't celebrate) in a way that allows him to keep lionizing him to the public?

[Frelga]

I think it's unlikely, but who knows what's going on in that moldy little mind.

No one expected Bakhmut to hold as long as it did. US and even Ukrainian sources worried that it would become a pointless loss of life for Ukraine. Only in retrospect will we be able to say whether it was. It was certainly a meat grinder for Prigozhin's convicts, but Russia holds them cheap. It also became a big prestige loss for Prigozhin himself, but again, in retrospect.

There's apparently some jockeying going on between Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and Shoigu (possibly as a proxy for putin) but it's very murky.

[Dave_LF]

Seems to be beyond doubt now that Lukashenko is indeed gravely ill. Why and with what are more difficult to ascertain. Lots of people saying the Russians poisoned him, of course, but they'd be saying that even if it was entirely natural causes. Still, the timing is awfully suspicious.

Some twitter links:
One
Two
Three

[Sunsilver]

That cartoon in Link #1! Putin: "Window or tea?"

[Frelga]

Equally likely that he was already ill but putin insisted that he come to Moscow for the parade as a hostage/show of support.

In other news, Russia tried to take out the American Patriot missile system with its supposed wonder weapon, the hypersonic Kinjal. Patriot shot it down. (Yes, they are really stupid enough to target their missile at the one defensive system that can take it down.)

In more news, Russia lost 2 fighter planes and 2 helicopters today. Over Bryansk region. Of Russia. It's unclear what happened. Russian versions of the cause include engine failure (all 4 of them? could be, it's Russia), missile from Ukrainian defense (maybe?), Ukrainian fighter planes (unlikely), Ukrainian/Russian opposition guerrillas (maybe?it didn't look like a MANPAD) and the one I find the most plausible, Russian own air defense.

The subtheory to the last version is that Ukraine hacked friend/foe identification signal, causing air defense to attack own planes. Don't know if likely, but satisfying.

Oh, and NEXTA reports.

Neutral for more than 200 years, Switzerland is giving the green light to re-export its weapons to Ukraine.

The Swiss parliament voted for amendments to the law that would allow Swiss-made weapons to be transferred to Ukraine. The final decision will be made in a referendum.

[N.E. Brigand]

Vladimir Putin is rather blatantly aligning Russia with Donald Trump. Yesterday Russia announced sanctions on hundreds of Americans, many of whom have nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine -- like New York's Attorney General Letitia James or Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger -- but who do have one thing in common: Trump hates them.

Edited to add kudos to Raffensperger, who welcomes Russia's sanctions as a badge of honor.

[Frelga]

A mic drop from Biden (and a 180 turn from what he was saying just last week)

JOURNALIST: Russia says giving Ukraine F-16s is a “colossal risk”

BIDEN: It is, for them

[Frelga]

I did not have this on my Bingo card for May.

#Russia BREAKING: pro- Russian volunteers have entered the #Belgorod oblast, raiding a local border post.

Obervers are calling it an incursion, the Liberty of Russia Legion already speaks of "liberated" villages.

Thread

Throughout the invasion, Belgorod was used to stage troops and fire rockets into Ukraine.