2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[Voronwë the Faithful]

So she already has the most in 190 years!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This makes Warnock's win all the more important.

Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate

[N.E. Brigand]

This is all about the 2024 election. Sen. Sinema will continue to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate (Maj. Leader Schumer has confirmed that she asked to keep her committee assignments, and he agreed). So she's like Bernie Sanders or Angus King. And as in their cases, what this move does is to prevent Democrats from primarying her. Democrats really can't run any candidate at all in 2024 in Arizona, because in the general election, the vote would be split between that Democrat and Sinema, and the Republican candidate would win.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I suspect that nonetheless a Democrat (probably Ruben Gallego) will run against her, most likely resulting in the loss of that seat.

[N.E. Brigand]

I wonder. There was no Democratic challenger to Bernie Sanders in 2018; he beat the Republican 67%-33%. There was a Democratic candidate challenging Angus King that year; King took 54%, with the Republican getting 35% and the Democrat getting 11%. In Utah this year there was no Democratic candidate, a deliberate move by Democrats to help independent Evan McMullin -- who is to the right of Sinema -- but it wasn't enough: while incumbent Mike Lee had the worst showing by a Republican Senate candidate in Utah since 1974, he still beat McMullin 53%-43% (two independents -- neither were Democrats -- got the remaining 4%). The Utah Democratic Party explicitly endorsed McMullin, a former Republican; couldn't the Arizona Democratic Party do the same for Sinema?

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Edited to add: Back in 2003, centrist Joe Lieberman, who had been the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee in 2000 and who left the Democratic Party in 2006 to become an independent, visited various states as part of his failed bid to be the Democratic presidential candidate in 2004. In Arizona, anti-Lieberman protesters included a "left-wing social worker" named Kyrsten Sinema, who referred to Lieberman as a "shame to Democrats."

Edited further to add: All that said, in a three-way race, Sinema would probably finish third. She's very unpopular in Arizona. The problem is, as V says, that she'd probably siphon more votes from a Democratic opponent than from a Republican, and you'd end up with a democracy denier like Kari Lake in the Senate.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Gallego (or someone else) might make the calculation that Sinema is so unpopular that she couldn't possibly win even in a one-on-one race with a Republican (probably Lake), so they wouldn't cause any harm by going ahead and running. Too bad Arizona doesn't have ranked choice voting like Maine and Alaska do.

[N.E. Brigand]

Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout, but in many key races, Republicans voted for Democratic candidates. (source)



There's been a lot of debate over the past six years about whether it's more important for parties to mobilize their members or to persuade other voters. This result argues for the latter. It's what Raphael Warnock's campaign did.

This idea of deliberately courting crossover voters is so banal that it hardly seems worth analyzing. But it really did go out of style in the wake of liberals’ shock and horror at the idea that anyone would vote for Donald Trump. Normally, when you lose an election, the first order of business is to figure out how to convince some of the people who voted for the other guy to change their minds next time. But lots of progressives found Trump so appalling that the idea of trying to do outreach to his voters was beyond the pale. Even though Hillary Clinton’s infamous analysis put only half of them in the basket of deplorables, there was very little interest in even trying to reach the other half. But there just isn’t some other way of doing politics.

The essay continues: "Democrats need Trump voters' voters. ... Realistically, this probably involves making some unpalatable concessions on policy and ideology. ... It’s a shitty reality, and I totally understand why folks resist facing up to it. And that’s what makes the mobilization myth so perennially tempting — it would be nice to think there’s some magical alternative to dealing with an unpleasant reality. But there isn’t."

Another valuable point: "The boring truth is that sporadic voters are less politically engaged and less ideological than non-voters. Successful but boring messages (like Catherine Cortez Masto and John Fetterman talking about how they think it’s good when cops arrested criminals) are a perfectly good mobilization strategy. They let Cortez Masto and Fetterman seem like sane, sensible human beings to the kind of people who are not that interested in politics and only sometimes vote."

[N.E. Brigand]

Just over a month after being reelected as Florida's governor, Ron DeSantis has announced that he supports a ban on abortions at six weeks.

If he had announced this before the election, would he still have won?

[N.E. Brigand]

Both the Democratic and Republican candidates for mayor of Los Angeles promised that if they won, they would declare a state of emergency to deal with homelessness. The race was won by the Democrat, Karen Bass, who has taken office and now has, as promised, declared that state of emergency. As a result, Fox News is referring to Mayor Bass as "Authoritarian Karen" with reporting that "L.A. Mayor Has Power to Seize Your Home."

[N.E. Brigand]

Uh, per an article today in the New York Times, new Congressman-elect George Santos, Republican of New York, apparently lied about most of his supposed biography:

Santos’ campaign biography says the Brazilian-American worked at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, but both firms said they had no record of him there; a review of public documents and court filings found no evidence that his family owns 13 real estate properties [as he claimed]; both Baruch College and New York University found no records of his enrollment, despite claims he graduated from Baruch in 2010 and took classes at NYU; and a New Jersey animal group said it never received any money from a $50-a-ticket fundraiser he co-hosted in 2017.

Santos also claimed, apparently falsely, that four of his employees were killed in the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando.

In July, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had shared an opposition research packet with the media that flagged some possible irregularities in Santos's resume, and I think there's an argument to be made that some enterprising reporters ought to have looked into the flags the DCCC raised before the election (so much for the narrative that the media is in the Democrats' pocket), but one journalist notes that most of the DCCC report on Santos was "conventional ultra MAGA hits," i.e. concerns that Santos supported the January 6th insurrection and so forth: "the 'hey guys he's a total fraud' needle was buried in a haystack shaped pile of needles ... This is one of dozens of House races happening in the market. Unless somebody is pitching this to media they're not going to spend a ton of time on investigative work." A valuable insight into how journalism works!

One local paper, in the course of endorsing Santos's Democratic opponent, Robert Zimmerman, explained that while they prefer Republicans on the issues, Santos was problematic:

He brags about his “wealth” and his “mansions” in the Hamptons – but he really lives in a row house in Queens. He boasts like an insecure child - but he's most likely just a fabulist - a fake.

One fact, however: In 2020 Santos, then age 32, was the NY Director of a nearly $20 million venture fund called "Harbor City Capital" - until the SEC shut it down as a "Ponzi Scheme." Over $6 million from investors was stolen - for personal luxuries like Mercedes cars, huge credit card bills, and a waterfront home - and millions from new investors were paid out to old investors. Classic Bernie Madoff "Ponzi scheme" fraud.

Santos’ campaign raises similar concerns. On paper Santos has raised over $2 million. But the money seems to have vanished - or never been there. Huge sums are listed with the FEC for personal expenses - like Brooks Brothers, Florida beach resorts, lavish restaurants and limo services - but many hundreds of thousands more disappear into a black hole of dubious "consulting fees."

Santos himself claims to have loaned his campaign nearly $600,000 - but he refuses - illegally - to file his federal financial disclosures. The last one he filed - in 2020 - shows Santos had no assets over $5,000. So where did $600,000 come from? Or is it even real ? Fed-up Republicans are now calling him "George Scam-tos."

Santos also favors Russia over Ukraine, and as the Daily Beast reported in November, some of his campaign funding came from the American cousin of a Russian oligarch.

Edited to add: Josh Marshall points out that Talking Points Memo reported on one Santos oddity a year ago: Santos falsely claimed that he drove 1,000 miles each week. (This was part of a complaint about gas prices during Joe Biden's presidency.)

[RoseMorninStar]

WOW. That is frightening. Can he be.. I dunno.. disqualified for false representation? (LYING)

[N.E. Brigand]

WOW. That is frightening. Can he be.. I dunno.. disqualified for false representation? (LYING)

Now that the election is done, I don't think so. The House could refuse to seat Santos, but given that he's a Republican and that Kevin McCarthy needs almost no defections in order to prevail as Speaker, it's unlikely. Just a few weeks ago, McCarthy was boasting about how the addition of Santos (and Max Miller from Ohio) means "the largest Republican Jewish caucus in more than 24 years." That said, Santos has "described himself as a nonobservant Jew but has also said he is Catholic."

Oh, and the New York Times also found that Santos lied about his address.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

Democrats in New York will retain their supermajority in the state senate after a recount found that incumbent John Mannion, from the Syracuse suburb of Geddes, who in 2020 was the first Democrat to win that district in 50 years, won releection last month by 10 votes.

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, where Republicans had controlled the state's legislative house:

1) Democrats win 102-101 majority in the House
2) A Democrat in a safe seat dies
3) Two other Democrats in safe seats were elected to Lieutentant Governor and U.S. Congress, respectively, and resign
4) Democrats set special elections
5) Republicans challenge that move because Democrats won't have a majority in January
6) A Republican is running to be Speaker of a 101-99 Republican-controlled House

I believe she'd only be the speaker for two to six months: Democrats want the special elections set for February; Republicans want them set for May.

[N.E. Brigand]

I think the public is also to blame. As outlined here, campaign researchers work on a limited budget and have to pick and choose what to investigate, and their priorities are set based on polling. So the reason that the Democrats' opposition book on Santos had topics in this order:

-January 6th
-Abortion
-Tax cuts for wealthy
-Privatize Social Security
-QAnon

*Then*
-Ponzi scheme involvement
-Conspiracies
-Guns
-Nonprofit
-Financials

Is that polling indicated that the first topics are what the public cared about most.

[N.E. Brigand]

In Georgia, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution offers this story about how Stacey Abrams made some incredibly bad spending decisions that led to her campaign having a cash crunch in the final weeks before this year's election.

A rented house in an expensive Atlanta neighborhood meant for TikTok creators that sat largely unused. A pop-up shop and “swag truck” that baffled some staffers. And then sharp cuts to TV airtime and employee benefits at a crucial moment in the campaign.

Stacey Abrams raised more than $103 million for her failed rematch this year against Gov. Brian Kemp, a record-setting haul for a Georgia gubernatorial race that allowed her to experiment with unconventional ways to promote her candidacy.

But her campaign’s expenditures have come under sharper scrutiny as new details emerge about the tight cash crunch she faced before her November defeat to Kemp by nearly 8 points.

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In Pennsylvania, a Democrat on Allegheny County's board of elections foolishly joined Republicans in delaying that county's vote certification, which will set a precedent for election deniers to cite in 2024.

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In Arizona, failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is claiming that her lawsuit against Maricopa County (for supposedly stealing the election from her) will put her opponent, Katie Hobbs, on the witness stand where she'll be at risk for perjuring herself, but Lake's lawyers have told the court that they've decided not to call Hobbs.

[N.E. Brigand]

After issuing a statement last night that addressed none of the lies identified by the New York Times (and incorrectly attributing a quote to Winston Churchill), Congressman-elect Santos is trying to clean up some of his past by reregistering the defunct Florida corporation that was supposedly the source of his recent wealth, but in doing so, he may be digging himself a deeper hole: he was just elected to represent the people of New York, but in this filing, he effectively claims to be a resident of Florida. But maybe there's a loophole.

[N.E. Brigand]

WOW. That is frightening. Can he be.. I dunno.. disqualified for false representation? (LYING)

Now that the election is done, I don't think so. The House could refuse to seat Santos, but given that he's a Republican and that Kevin McCarthy needs almost no defections in order to prevail as Speaker, it's unlikely. Just a few weeks ago, McCarthy was boasting about how the addition of Santos (and Max Miller from Ohio) means "the largest Republican Jewish caucus in more than 24 years." That said, Santos has "described himself as a nonobservant Jew but has also said he is Catholic."

Oh, and the New York Times also found that Santos lied about his address.

Not only did Santos say he was Jewish, he claimed his ancestors had moved to Brazil fleeing the Holocaust. There seems to be no evidence of that.

Furthermore, this Congressional race will billed as the first between two openly gay candidates. Santos described himself that way, as he did likewise in a previous run for office in 2020. And it's probably true. In 2021, after losing that race, he was in fact engaged to a man: a pharmacist who attended a party with Santos in which Santos boasted on social media about the two of them having gone maskless at the event; this led to his fiance losing his job for violating his company's pandemic policy.

So it's not scandalous, but it is definitely amusing to learn, per a new story out today, that Santos was married to a woman until just two weeks before he announced his 2020 campaign, and that was not known publicly. Josh Marshall sums the current situation up:

"Given that Kevin McCarthy can't lose another seat and given how much uncertainty there is about who George Santos is, McCarthy's best play may be to find a person who is gay, did work at Citi and Goldman, and did go to Baruch, and then present that person as George Santos on January 3rd. At this point, it would be fairly hard to prove that he's not George Santos, and then that person just gets sworn in."

[Voronwë the Faithful]