2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I guess this can go here even though technically it is a 2023 election.

[N.E. Brigand]

Don't make me tap the sign.

Say the line!

I'd never heard of Caroline Wren prior to reading some of her January 6th testimony a few weeks ago, in which she comes across as a fairly normal Republican who didn't understand how the day's events got so out of hand, but now I've seen her name in other recent stories that call that view into question. At a Republican National Committee event last week, Wren advocated for Harmeet Dhillon to be elected RNC Chair, saying that if elected chair, "the first thing [Dhillon would] do is bring Mike Lindell in to find out what’s going on with these machines." Wren also likened the incumbent RNC CHair, Ronna (Romney) McDaniel, to Democratic Arizona governor Katie Hobbs. So Wren is more extremist than I realized, as further shown by something else I didn't know: she ran the failed campaign of Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

As it worked out, Ronna McDaniel for once had counted votes correctly: she had said weeks earlier that she would easily, and she did: she got 111 of the 167 votes cast. (A lot of Trump supporters are not happy about that.) So Wren lost two elections in the space of less than three months.

And today there's more news about Wren. She's being sued for defamation for comments she made about the man who has alleged that he was groped by ...

Matt Schlapp.

ABC: "Mike Pence declines invitation to CPAC as event's leader comes under fire."

"It shouldn't come as a surprise that CPAC is not attracting the big names that it once did. There's a feeling within the Republican Party that CPAC has long abandoned the traditional values that it once stood for," one GOP operative said. "The allegations against Matt Schlapp for allegedly 'pummeling' a man's 'junk' against his will have only exacerbated these issues and are likely to contribute to further decline by the organization."

Emphasis added.

[N.E. Brigand]

Say the line!

I'd never heard of Caroline Wren prior to reading some of her January 6th testimony a few weeks ago ... And today there's more news about Wren. She's being sued for defamation for comments she made about the man who has alleged that he was groped by ...

Matt Schlapp.

ABC: "Mike Pence declines invitation to CPAC as event's leader comes under fire."

"It shouldn't come as a surprise that CPAC is not attracting the big names that it once did. There's a feeling within the Republican Party that CPAC has long abandoned the traditional values that it once stood for," one GOP operative said. "The allegations against Matt Schlapp for allegedly 'pummeling' a man's 'junk' against his will have only exacerbated these issues and are likely to contribute to further decline by the organization."

Emphasis added.

From a new Washington Post story titled "As CPAC's head faces sexual assault claim, other leadership concerns emerge":

“The Post review found that call logs, texts and videos provided by the Walker staffer and his confidants broadly match his account of Schlapp making unwanted sexual advances after buying him drinks at two Atlanta bars on the night of Oct. 19th”

[N.E. Brigand]

In March 2021 (i.e., 17 months ago), a billionaire named Barre Seid donated his entire company to a new PAC called the Marble Freedom Trust, which is controlled by Leonard Leo, generally thought to be one of the most influential conservative political activists through his leadership of the Federalist Society (he co-chairs the group's board of directors) and that group's success in the dissemination of conservative judicial philosophy and in particular for getting Republican presidents to choose federal judges sympathetic to their positions and especially Supreme Court justices from a list drawn up by the group. (There have been some twists in that process, however: Brett Kavanaugh was not on their list when Donald Trump was elected and seems to have been added specifically to convince Anthony Kennedy, for whom Kavanaugh clerked, to retire.) Reid donated his company rather than making a cash donation for certain tax advantages. The Marble Freedom Trust then sold the company.

For $1.6 billion.

This enormous donation, and the very existence of the Marble Freedom Trust, was unknown before today, when the news broke in the New York Times. I note it here because I presume the money will be spent (and is already being spent) to influence this year's election.

Politico yesterday published a new story about Leonard Leo: "Dark money and special deals: How Leonard Leo and his friends benefited from his judicial activism" with the subheadline reading: "The Federalist Society co-chairman’s lifestyle took a lavish turn after he became Donald Trump’s adviser on judicial nominations." And while that's bad enough, I think it's a mere offshoot of the real problem: what did Leo's donors expect in return for their enormous gifts?

[N.E. Brigand]

Matt Schlapp's accuser has publicly identified himself, as required by the judge overseeing his case. His name is Carlton Huffmann.

[RoseMorninStar]

Not congressional, but Wisconsin had an election today which many consider to be of great importance. It appears the Wisc. supreme court position will be filled by Janet Protasiewicz (46.5% with 95% of the votes in) against Daniel Kelly. The county I live in went for a candidate (Darrow) which only held sway in 2 counties with 21.8%.

[N.E. Brigand]

Not congressional, but Wisconsin had an election today which many consider to be of great importance. It appears the Wisc. supreme court position will be filled by Janet Protasiewicz (46.5% with 95% of the votes in) against Daniel Kelly. The county I live in went for a candidate (Darrow) which only held sway in 2 counties with 21.8%.

Wasserman is almost always right:



Wisconsin hasn't even counted half the vote yet, but Protasiewicz's margin over Kelly so far is a few points better than Joe Biden's 2020 edge over Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Speaking of which, today's result also could have huge implications for the 2024 presidential race, depending on what skullduggery Republicans get up to over the next two years.

(Edited to add: Dave Weigel notes that "crucial Waukesha County," a moniker I think he coined when the conservative candidate for state supreme court won 76%-26%, is voting for Kelly 58%-42%, but it went for Trump 60%-39%. That's a five-point swing left since 2020.)


Meanwhile in Chicago, two Democrats are vying today to succeed Lori Lightfoot as mayor. I don't know which one would govern better, but the more progressive candidate, Brandon Johnson, is narrowly leading the centrist Paul Vallas.

[N.E. Brigand]

Yowza! Republicans in Wisconsin's state legislature are already talking about impeaching Protasiewicz, and due to gerrymandering, they are very close to having the supermajority they'd need to do so. They just need to hold one particular seat, and they might pick it up in a different race tonight.

(Edit in bold.)

[RoseMorninStar]

The gerrymandering in Wisconsin is ridiculous. It would take an overwhelming Democratic vote to overcome it. I've been trying to find an article I read a while back, I think Democrats would have to have more than 67% of the vote to win. Republicans won't give up that kind of advantage easily.

The Princeton redistricting report card gives Wisconsin an 'F' for fairness.

[N.E. Brigand]

Yowza! Republicans in Wisconsin's state legislature are already talking about impeaching Protasiewicz, and due to gerrymandering, they are very close to having the supermajority they'd need to do so. They just need to hold one particular seat, and they might do that in a different race tonight.

The Republican has won this state legislative race. Let's see if they impeach Protasiewicz. Her opponent in the court race, Kelly, wasn't exactly gracious tonight, saying "I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede."

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile in Chicago, two Democrats are vying today to succeed Lori Lightfoot as mayor. I don't know which one would govern better, but the more progressive candidate, Brandon Johnson, is narrowly leading the centrist Paul Vallas.

Brandon Johnson has won in Chicago, narrowly defeating Paul Vallas, who has conceded.

Vallas had pretty consistently led in the polls, but his margins shrank over time.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yowza! Republicans in Wisconsin's state legislature are already talking about impeaching Protasiewicz, and due to gerrymandering, they are very close to having the supermajority they'd need to do so. They just need to hold one particular seat, and they might do that in a different race tonight.

The Republican has won this state legislative race. Let's see if they impeach Protasiewicz. Her opponent in the court race, Kelly, wasn't exactly gracious tonight, saying "I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede."

Here it is.

[N.E. Brigand]

Not congressional, but Wisconsin had an election today which many consider to be of great importance. It appears the Wisc. supreme court position will be filled by Janet Protasiewicz (46.5% with 95% of the votes in) against Daniel Kelly. The county I live in went for a candidate (Darrow) which only held sway in 2 counties with 21.8%.

Wasserman is almost always right ... Wisconsin hasn't even counted half the vote yet, but Protasiewicz's margin over Kelly so far is a few points better than Joe Biden's 2020 edge over Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Speaking of which, today's result also could have huge implications for the 2024 presidential race, depending on what skullduggery Republicans get up to over the next two years.

(Dave Weigel notes that "crucial Waukesha County," a moniker I think he coined when the conservative candidate for state supreme court won 76%-26%, is voting for Kelly 58%-42%, but it went for Trump 60%-39%. That's a five-point swing left since 2020.)

Protasiewicz ended up winning the state by more than nine points. (Joe Biden beat Donald Trump there in 2020 by less than one point.)

[RoseMorninStar]

I worry about Republicans doing something sneaky.. like impeaching Protaciewicz before she's even begun. What is happening in Tennessee.. I find that frightening. Tennessee lawmakers expel 1st of 3 Dem lawmakers after gun protest; votes continue for peacefully protesting.

[N.E. Brigand]

Meanwhile in Chicago, two Democrats are vying today to succeed Lori Lightfoot as mayor. I don't know which one would govern better, but the more progressive candidate, Brandon Johnson, is narrowly leading the centrist Paul Vallas.

Brandon Johnson has won in Chicago, narrowly defeating Paul Vallas, who has conceded. Vallas had pretty consistently led in the polls, but his margins shrank over time.

Recently, video circulated widely of a large group of teenagers attacking a couple in downtown Chicago while at least five police cars drove by the scene without stopping. A good samaritan named Lenora Dennis rescued the couple and brought them to a police station where, she says, "a desk cop told Dennis that the attack was happening because (progressive) Brandon Johnson was elected mayor. He (Johnson) hasn't started yet and doesn't till May 15."

[N.E. Brigand]

There was a decline in turnout among Black voters and younger voters in the 2022 midterms compared to the 2018 midterms, although the latter remained above the levels from 2002-2014. (More 2022 statistics at the link.)



A key point here is that any claims you hear about the demographic makeup of the electorate in the immediate days or weeks after an election should be treated as suspect, because it takes about six months for researchers to figure this stuff out (by comparing turnout figures to precinct-level census data.)

[N.E. Brigand]

AP and all major outlets have now called the race for Warnock. His final margin is likely to be 3-4 points.

Yeah. There will be some minor adjustments, probably further adding to Raphael Warnock's margin, and at this point at noon the next day, his lead over Herschel Walker is 51.4%-48.6%, which is 2.8% and more than 95,000 votes.

Warnock had won the Jan. 5, 2021 runoff against Kelly Loeffler by 2.0%, but turnout was higher, so that was about 94,000 votes. As most people probably remember, there were two runoff elections for U.S. Senate in Georgia that day. In the other one, Jon Ossoff came from behind (he had been second in the first round in Nov. 2020) to defeat David Perdue by 1.2%, which was 55,000 votes.

It's been a few months since we heard about Herschel Walker, but Roger Sollenberger at the Daily Beast has an update for those who missed him:

Emails Reveal 'Jaw-Dropping' Herschel Walker Money Scandal.

When Herschel Walker emailed a representative for billionaire industrialist and longtime family friend Dennis Washington in March 2022, he seemed to be engaging in normal behavior for a political candidate: He was asking for money.

But unbeknownst to Washington and the billionaire’s staff, Walker’s request was far more out of the ordinary. It was something campaign finance experts are calling “unprecedented,” “stunning,” and “jaw-dropping.” Walker wasn’t just asking for donations to his campaign; he was soliciting hundreds of thousands of dollars for his own personal company—a company that he never disclosed on his financial statements.

Emails obtained by The Daily Beast—and verified as authentic by a person with knowledge of the exchanges—show that Walker asked Washington to wire $535,200 directly to that undisclosed company, HR Talent, LLC.

And the emails reveal that not only did Washington complete Walker’s wire requests, he was under the impression that these were, in fact, political contributions.

That said, while former federal prosecutors say there's enough here to open an investigation, it apparently wouldn't be a slam dunk case to convict.

[N.E. Brigand]

Here's an interesting article, that's pretty detailed too, about errors in the tabulation of votes in Pinal County, Arizona for 2022 that came to light in a recount. Seems like a mix of bad systems and incompetent (but overpaid) leadership.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Republican candidate for Senate from Arizona, Blake Masters, appears to be somewhat hypocritical regarding U.S. relations with China. He's called for a ban on Chinese nationals even working for U.S. companies (which I think is an extreme position) and he's said that his boss, the venture capitalist "Peter Thiel[,] and I have basically avoided doing business with China at all costs ... to my knowledge, there’s not a single startup that Peter invested in or that I invested in at Thiel Capital that’s Chinese." But as shown in the article at that link, that's not true.

It's been reported by multiple outlets this week that Peter Thiel, whose financial assistance played a big role in securing nominations of J.D. Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona, is trying to get a passport from the nation of Malta. He was born in Germany and already has passports from that nation, the U.S., and New Zealand. I assume this has to do with tax benefits, but it does seem at odds with the America-first positions espoused by his candidates.

New York Times: "Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met With Jeffrey Epstein. Mr. Thiel apparently had several meetings with Mr. Epstein in 2014, according to records of the disgraced financier reviewed by The New York Times." That would be six years after Epstein's conviction. The Times adds that they can't confirm whether the meetings actually took place, and Thiel's spokesman declined to comment.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Republican candidate for Senate from Arizona, Blake Masters, appears to be somewhat hypocritical regarding U.S. relations with China. He's called for a ban on Chinese nationals even working for U.S. companies (which I think is an extreme position) and he's said that his boss, the venture capitalist "Peter Thiel[,] and I have basically avoided doing business with China at all costs ... to my knowledge, there’s not a single startup that Peter invested in or that I invested in at Thiel Capital that’s Chinese." But as shown in the article at that link, that's not true.

It's been reported by multiple outlets this week that Peter Thiel, whose financial assistance played a big role in securing nominations of J.D. Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona, is trying to get a passport from the nation of Malta. He was born in Germany and already has passports from that nation, the U.S., and New Zealand. I assume this has to do with tax benefits, but it does seem at odds with the America-first positions espoused by his candidates.

New York Times: "Peter Thiel Is Latest Billionaire Said to Have Met With Jeffrey Epstein. Mr. Thiel apparently had several meetings with Mr. Epstein in 2014, according to records of the disgraced financier reviewed by The New York Times." That would be six years after Epstein's conviction. The Times adds that they can't confirm whether the meetings actually took place, and Thiel's spokesman declined to comment.

Noting this in the thread where Jeffrey Epstein was most recently mentioned: over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that Epstein:

used his knowledge of Microsoft founder Bill Gates's affair with Russian bridge player Mila Antonova to try and threaten him. Gates had turned down an opportunity to invest in the disgraced entrepreneur’s charitable endeavor, and Epstein was reportedly intent on exacting revenge. ... Epstein encountered Antonova in 2013, long after Gates's affair with her. In 2017, he sent an email to Gates asking for reimbursement for Antonova's tuition to a software coding school that he paid for. At the same time, he alluded to the fact that he knew about Gates's entanglement and hinted that the affair would be exposed if the payment was not made. (Spoiler alert: Gates did not make the payment.)

(The quotes above come from an aggregator site not directly from the (expensively paywalled) WSJ.)