The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[RoseMorninStar]

Also, a few days ago there was a mini-scandal about veterans being removed from housing in order to make way for the non-existent migrant surge, but several homeless men in Poughkeepsie tell the Albany Times-Union that they were recruited by a conservative non-profit to pretend to be veterans for those stories.

It's interesting you should post this. My mother, who lives in Tucson, was convinced people were being evicted (by the Biden administration) from nice apartments all over town to make way for 'illegals'. I was wondering where she comes up with this stuff.

[N.E. Brigand]

On Fox News, Laura Ingraham has acknowledged that the story about veterans being evicted in order that migrants could be housed was based on a hoax, adding "We have no clue as to why anyone would do such a thing".

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[RoseMorninStar]

*sigh*

[N.E. Brigand]

While 73% of Americans think their personal finances are "at least OK" -- a number that's held pretty consistent for the past seven years -- only 18% of Americans think the national economy is "good or excellent" -- which is less than half as many Americans felt that way in 2017.

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently Minneosta's lawmakers had a very productive term:



Lots of details at the link. Among other things, the legislature codified Roe v. Wade protections and provided free lunches to all schools.

[N.E. Brigand]

A point from the fight against global warming: automobile dealers, who are politically very powerful and who overwhelmingly support Republican politics, will make less money selling electrical vehicles than they do from selling gas-powered vehicles (for a variety of reasons including lower maintenance costs), so at least half of them have pledged not to do so.

[RoseMorninStar]

Yup, a lot of the profitablity a dealer makes is not in the sale of the vehicle but in maintenance.

[N.E. Brigand]

Actual headline today:

"The Jobs Report Was Very Strong. Why the Stock Market Is Up Anyway."

The U.S. added 339,000 jobs in May. Earlier this week, economic experts had predicted that number would be "only" 195,000 jobs.

What's more, the job numbers for March and April were revised up by 93,000.

Nonetheless, the unemployment rate rose from its 50+ year low of 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May, because more people entered the workforce

In many recent months, the strong jobs reports have resulted in stock market declines because of investors' fears about inflation. This month's report, however, shows that wages are not increasing as quickly as in prior months. That's why the stock market is up today.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes, in this upside-down world, good news for Main Street is bad news for Wall Street, and vice versa.

[N.E. Brigand]

Actual headline today: "The Jobs Report Was Very Strong. Why the Stock Market Is Up Anyway."

The U.S. added 339,000 jobs in May. Earlier this week, economic experts had predicted that number would be "only" 195,000 jobs. What's more, the job numbers for March and April were revised up by 93,000. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate rose from its 50+ year low of 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May, because more people entered the workforce.* In many recent months, the strong jobs reports have resulted in stock market declines because of investors' fears about inflation. This month's report, however, shows that wages are not increasing as quickly as in prior months. That's why the stock market is up today.

*More on that point from Bharat Ramamurti, who serves in the Biden administration as the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council: "The percentage of prime-age people [age 25-54] in the workforce is higher than it ever was in the Trump Administration, and is the highest it's been since 2007. The prospect of good jobs brings people off the sidelines." Ramamurti also posted a chart:



I'd be curious to know more about why this number declined through the first half of the 2000s.

Edited to add a link to a new Politico story on how pandemic-era policies reduced the income gap between rich and poor.

[Dave_LF]

In addition, the VIX/"fear index" closed at 14.60 today. Below 15! That is a positively pre-COVID number, the likes of which hasn't been seen since; well COVID.

It was headed that direction in the second part of 2021, but then war.

[N.E. Brigand]

Dave Weigel of Semafor points out that "Four Republican governors deployed the National Guard to the [U.S. southern] border this week, while the surge in illegal crossings that [Texas's governor Greg] Abbott et al. warned about didn't happen. Crossings are down." The governors sending Guard troops to the border include Glenn Youngkin of Virginia yesterday and Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma today, even though Title 42 expired on May 11th.

Per an NBC story to which Weigel links, the "number of migrants illegally crossing the southwest U.S. border is at its lowest point since the start of the Biden administration, with just over 3,000 migrants stopped by Border Patrol each day. The number has plummeted from more than 10,000 daily just three weeks ago". There are multiple reasons, but one of them is that would-be immigrants seeking asylum are now required to apply for that status in other countries before doing so at the U.S. border. The NBC article notes that the ACLU has filed a federal lawsuit in the northern district of California seeking to block this Biden administration policy. If the ACLU is successful, those troops sent by the Republican governors may end up being needed after all.

[narya]

I'd be curious to know more about why this number declined through the first half of the 2000s.

The graph looks dramatic until you realize it's just twitching by two or three percent, and only measures the percentage of people who want to participate in the workforce and successfully do, and are aged 25 to 54. Meanwhile we are experiencing the "Great Resignation". Baby boomers are retiring in droves, now that they are 59 to 77 years old, opening up unprecedented room for advancement as the lump moves thru the snake. Gen-Xers are also reconsidering the need to stick around until the traditional 65, and some are retiring at 50 or 55. The workforce is changing. Nobody wants to be a public servant anymore (not sure if that is a baby boomer vs gen-x thing). Job vacancy rates around here for city, county and state jobs are at 30%, as public employers compete unsuccessfully for a shrinking pool of applicants.

It almost makes me want to come out of retirement. But not quite.

[RoseMorninStar]

Help Wanted is posted almost everywhere here (and they've had them up for a long time). Some businesses that have cut back on hours or days of service because there just are not enough workers.

[N.E. Brigand]

In light of this Atlantic story by Jeff Asher titled "The Murder Rate Is Suddenly Falling," I appreciate this reminder that one of Donald Trump's campaign themes in 2019-20 was that Joe Biden was too tough on criminals. Here's a bit of the new story:

This spring, I’ve found something that I’ve never seen before and that probably has not happened in decades: strong evidence of a sharp and broad decline in the nation’s murder rate. The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded, according to my preliminary data. It is still early in the year and the trend could change over the second half of the year, but data from a sufficiently large sample of big cities have typically been a good predictor of the year-end national change in murder, even after only five months.

Right now, the murder rate is 12% below last year. The largest previously recorded decrease was 9% in 1996. That said, some cities like Memphis are unfortunately bucking the trend, and this decrease still wouldn't get the numbers down to 2019 levels. And as Asher notes above, the year isn't yet half over, so things could change.

The article explores possible causes for the decline, with the caveat that we still don't know why murder declined so precipitously during the 1990s.

[N.E. Brigand]

Can you fill in the blanks below without peeking at this East Bay Times headline and subhed? "___ _____________ dined with ________ ___ ______ and _____ _______ to get _____ money: report. In the desperate weeks before ___'s collapse, _____________ asked his friend _______ __________ to take him to the ______ _____ to hit up some of the region's __________ rulers for funding." Here's one hint: since July 2017, the friend's last name has also been used a unit of time.

NE - What is a Scaramucci?

Yes, that's the unit of time! Here's the quote above with the blanks filled in: "Sam Bankman-Fried dined with Mohammed bin Salman and Jared Kushner to get Saudi money: report. In the desperate weeks before FTX's collapse, Bankman-Fried asked his friend Anthony Scaramucci to take him to the Middle East to hit up some of the region's autocratic rulers for funding."

Since this is the most recent reference here to cryptocurrency scandals, here's where I'll note that:

1. Yesterday, "The SEC sues Binance, unveils 13 charges against crypto exchange in sweeping lawsuit" (NPR).
"'Through thirteen charges, we allege that [CEO Changpeng "CZ"] Zhao and Binance entities engaged in an extensive web of deception, conflicts of interest, lack of disclosure, and calculated evasion of the law,' said SEC Chair Gary Gensler, in a statement. 'They attempted to evade U.S. securities laws by announcing sham controls that they disregarded behind the scenes so they could keep high-value U.S. customers on their platforms.'"

2. Today, "US SEC charges crypto platform Coinbase, one day after suing Binance" (Reuters).
"Both civil cases are part of SEC Chair Gary Gensler's push to assert jurisdiction over crypto markets, which he on Tuesday again labeled a "Wild West" of investing, and protect investors while shoring up their trust in capital markets. 'The cryptomarkets are undermining that trust, and I would say this: it undermines our overall capital markets,' Gensler told CNBC on Wednesday."

Broadly speaking, the SEC is arguing that cryptocurrency is a security and should be regulated as such.

Executives at both companies argue that the SEC is overreaching here.

(This post in the "Middle-earth in New Media" thread was previously the only reference on these forums to Binance.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Jennifer Granholm, the former Michigan governor who is Secretary of Energy in the Biden administration, today corrected testimony she gave to the Senate in April: "I mistakenly told the Committee that I did not own any individual stocks, whereas I should have said that I did not own any conflicting stocks." Such corrections to testimony are fairly routine, but she should definitely be more careful about this. And oh how privileged you have to be not realize that you own stock!

[N.E. Brigand]

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary, violated the Hatch Act by disparaging "mega MAGA Republicans" on Nov. 2, 2022, less than a week before last fall's midterm elections. That's according to the Office of Special Counsel, which investigates such offenses, although that office also determined that Jean-Pierre had not been specifically advised about the language she used (defenders of Jean-Pierre note that the acronym "MAGA" had been used hundreds of times in official government communication during the Trump administration without falling afoul of the Hatch Act), and so they only issued her a warning letter. Here's some text of the complaint filed by a Republican watchdog group last year:

Standing from her official podium in the Brady Press Briefing Room, in her role as Press Secretary, Ms. Jean-Pierre attempted to persuade the voting public that her political opponents in the Republican party “don’t believe in the rule of law,” “refuse to accept the result of free and fair elections,” and “fan the flames of political violence through what they praise and what they refuse to condemn.” The ferocity and severity of such statements about the Republican Party are a clear and passionate exhortation to voters not to vote for Republicans. Such an attempt to sway an election is a direct violation of the Hatch Act’s prohibition against employees like Ms. Jean-Pierre using their office to influence an election or seek the success or failure of a political party.

That watchdog group is outraged that the Office didn't recommend charges be brought against Jean-Pierre.

You can read her full remarks on Nov. 2 here.

The President will continue to call attention to the threat to democratic integrity and to public safety posed by those who deny the documented truth about election results and those who seek to undermine public faith in our system of government.

Unfortunately, we have seen mega MAGA Republican officials who don’t believe in the rule of law. They refuse to accept the results of free and fair elections, and they fan the flames of political violence through what they praise and what they refuse to condemn.

It remains important for the President to state strongly and unequivocally that violence has no place in our democracy. He believes other leaders of both parties on both sides have a responsibility to communicate this very clearly as well.

Her remarks came in advance of a speech that the President gave that evening on election integrity. Remember, this was in the context of many Republican candidates (like Kari Lake in Arizona) saying that they would only accept the results if they won. So it really appears as if Jean-Pierre has been found guilty of telling the truth.

[N.E. Brigand]

A useful corrective against some claims being made with very shaky evidence:



Dig this note at the end:

Update: Two members of Congress who have seen the 1023 told the New York Post that the executive at issue was Burisma founder Mykola Zlochevsky. In 2020, former Giuliani aide Lev Parnas — then himself under indictment on federal charges — told Politico that Giuliani had met privately with Zlochevsky in mid-2019, in the middle of Trump’s effort to get Ukraine to announce an investigation into Biden.

“Asked to detail any contacts he had with Joe Biden from 2013-2019, and whether Hunter ever facilitated any meetings,” Politico’s Natasha Bertrand wrote, “Zlochevsky replied: ‘No one from Burisma ever had any contacts with VP Biden or people working for him during Hunter Biden’s engagement.’ "

Giuliani, Parnas said, was furious at that answer.