The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[River]

Closing schools made sense when it happened in 2020. Now, though, with vaccines and pills, it's silliness. Unless there're so many students and staff out sick that the schools can't function, there's no reason to shut down. But I don't think anyone with the authority to close schools is taking the cries seriously? Especially since, in most districts, Winter Break has either started or will start soon?

[Inanna]

I know of one NY school that the Dept of Health shut down because 16 teachers tested positive…

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Manchin says he is a "no" on Build Back Better, essentially ending the Biden presidency. (Okay, perhaps that is a bit hyperbolic, but it definitely is a big blow.)

Manchin says he won't vote for Build Back Better Act

[RoseMorninStar]

Manchin says he is a "no" on Build Back Better, essentially ending the Biden presidency. (Okay, perhaps that is a bit hyperbolic, but it definitely is a big blow.)

Manchin says he won't vote for Build Back Better Act

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This says it all.

Statement from Press Secretary Jen Psaki

Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances. Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework “in good faith.”

On Tuesday of this week, Senator Manchin came to the White House and submitted—to the President, in person, directly—a written outline for a Build Back Better bill that was the same size and scope as the President’s framework, and covered many of the same priorities. While that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all. Senator Manchin promised to continue conversations in the days ahead, and to work with us to reach that common ground. If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.

Senator Manchin claims that this change of position is related to inflation, but the think tank he often cites on Build Back Better—the Penn Wharton Budget Institute—issued a report less than 48 hours ago that noted the Build Back Better Act will have virtually no impact on inflation in the short term, and, in the long run, the policies it includes will ease inflationary pressures. Many leading economists with whom Senator Manchin frequently consults also support Build Back Better.

Build Back Better lowers costs that families pay. It will reduce what families pay for child care. It will reduce what they pay for prescription drugs. It will lower health care premiums. And it puts a tax cut in the pockets of families with kids. If someone is concerned about the impact that higher prices are having on families, this bill gives them a break.

Senator Manchin cited deficit concerns in his statement. But the plan is fully paid for, is the most fiscally responsible major bill that Congress has considered in years, and reduces the deficit in the long run. The Congressional Budget Office report that the Senator cites analyzed an unfunded extension of Build Back Better. That’s not what the President has proposed, not the bill the Senate would vote on, and not what the President would support. Senator Manchin knows that: The President has told him that repeatedly, including this week, face to face.

Likewise, Senator Manchin’s statement about the climate provisions in Build Back Better are wrong. Build Back Better will produce a job-creating clean energy future for this country—including West Virginia.

Just as Senator Manchin reversed his position on Build Back Better this morning, we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.

In the meantime, Senator Manchin will have to explain to those families paying $1,000 a month for insulin why they need to keep paying that, instead of $35 for that vital medicine. He will have to explain to the nearly two million women who would get the affordable day care they need to return to work why he opposes a plan to get them the help they need. Maybe Senator Manchin can explain to the millions of children who have been lifted out of poverty, in part due to the Child Tax Credit, why he wants to end a program that is helping achieve this milestone—we cannot.

We are proud of what we have gotten done in 2021: the American Rescue Plan, the fastest decrease in unemployment in U.S. history, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, over 200 million Americans vaccinated, schools reopened, the fastest rollout of vaccines to children anywhere in the world, and historic appointments to the Federal judiciary.

But we will not relent in the fight to help Americans with their child care, health care, prescription drug costs, and elder care—and to combat climate change. The fight for Build Back Better is too important to give up. We will find a way to move forward next year.

[N.E. Brigand]

And economic forecasters are now revising down GDP projections for 2022 based on Manchin apparently killing BBB.

Does he really want to hurt the economy?

[N.E. Brigand]

But I wonder if the White House should have taken a softer tone regardless? Democrats still need Manchin for other things.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I agree. As angry as I am towards Manchin, I don't think throwing him under the bus helps.

[RoseMorninStar]

Being cynical, I'll just say follow the money. That will likely tell us why Manchin makes the choices he does.

[N.E. Brigand]

Finally, it should be noted that what Manchin said today isn't radically different from what he said over the past week.

Today he said this: "If you're going to do something and do it, pick what the prized priorities are ... and you fund them for 10 years and you make sure they deliver the services for 10 years. It's hard to deliver services for 1 year or 3 years or 5 years. ... We should be upfront and pick our priorities. That's the difference. So it hasn't shrunk in the desire, the intent is always there. And what we need to do is get our financial house in order... be able to pay for what we do and do what we pay for."

Build Back Better as currently written doesn't do that. So replace it with a plan that does and see if he votes for that instead.

[RoseMorninStar]

Goldman Sachs cuts US economic forecast after Joe Manchin rejects Build Back Better

[N.E. Brigand]

So apparently it all comes down to the child tax credit, which has been a key part of Biden's plan and is lifting kids out of poverty, but Manchin really doesn't like it.

Per the Huffington Post, Machin "privately told colleagues he believed West Virginia parents getting the child tax credit would spend the money on drugs instead of their kids."

[River]

So that's a problem but I'm not sure effing over everyone else is the solution. Nice thing to say about your constituents, BTW. Real classy.

[N.E. Brigand]

"Manchin has also told colleagues he believes that Americans would fraudulently use the proposed paid sick leave policy, specifically saying people would feign being sick and go on hunting trips, a source familiar with his comments told HuffPost."

[River]

"Manchin has also told colleagues he believes that Americans would fraudulently use the proposed paid sick leave policy, specifically saying people would feign being sick and go on hunting trips, a source familiar with his comments told HuffPost."

Just because that's what he would do doesn't mean everyone else would...

But aside from that, who even cares? Why is it his or anyone else's business what someone's doing with their sick leave? If they burn it up on something other than sickness, how is that anything other than a personal problem? Maybe he's really making an argument for a cultural shift towards more vacation time in general. Give everyone four weeks of use it or lose it PTO in addition to sick leave. No one's going to spend sick leave if they've got a heap of vacation time to burn.

[RoseMorninStar]

Maybe he's really making an argument for a cultural shift towards more vacation time in general. Give everyone four weeks of use it or lose it PTO in addition to sick leave. No one's going to spend sick leave if they've got a heap of vacation time to burn.

This was what popped into my head. Not that I think this is what Manchin is thinking though.

My daughter works for a company who gives lots of vacation time but when she used it they were kinda shocked. They don't expect people to use any of it in a chunk (2 weeks for example). I think having a chunk of time off away from work is a mentally healthy thing to do.

[N.E. Brigand]

Apparently Manchin presented a deal to the White House last week. It didn't include the Child Tax Credit, but it did include $1.8 for pre-K funding, green energy, and an expansion of Obamacare. The White House wanted to continue negotiating to see if they could move Manchin to accept the CTC. Manchin had told Biden that he would continue negotiating on BBB, but not until after Christmas. The White House indicated to Manchin last Thursday that they would be putting out a statement on the status of talks. He asked that it not mention him specifically, and may have told the White House that if it did name him, he was done. They seem to have believed that he meant done for the week, not done for all time. The statement they put out is a very friendly document:

I had a productive call with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer earlier today. I briefed them on the most recent discussions that my staff and I have held with Senator Manchin about Build Back Better. In these discussions, Senator Manchin has reiterated his support for Build Back Better funding at the level of the framework plan I announced in September. I believe that we will bridge our differences and advance the Build Back Better plan, even in the face of fierce Republican opposition.

Apparently Manchin can't stand "incivility" and decided that by naming him, the White House statement I quote above had crossed some sort of line.

It looks to me like Manchin was seeking any sort of excuse to have this big moment. But I agree with this new column in New York magazine: "Politics is about making things better, not speaking truth to power," in which Jonathan Chait argues that Democrats should just take the deal that Manchin offered last week and should look for a different opportunity to get the Child Tax Credit passed. Apparently Mitt Romney is open to some sort of CTC proposal.

Manchin’s proposal gives Biden something vastly superior to the failure of Build Back Better. He would have the largest green-energy investment in history plus the creation of a permanent pre-kindergarten plan plus making health insurance universally available. He should beg Manchin’s forgiveness for his oh-so-rude statement and sign the deal tomorrow.

I guess the question is: was Manchin serious or would he walk away even from his own proposal now, using the excuse of Biden's "incivility"?

Anyway, Biden and Manchin did speak Sunday evening and apparently they will keep negotiating.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Interesting, thanks, N.E.B.

I think there is still a small chance that something will happen. But I have a hard time seeing the progressives in the House (not to mention Sanders and Warren in the Senate) just accepting Manchin's deal (even if it was still on the table).

[N.E. Brigand]

The top story at the Wall Street Journal today is headlined "Holiday Shopping Rebounds With Biggest Gain in 2017 Years", having increased 8.5% from 2020 and 10.7% from 2019.

[RoseMorninStar]

Biggest gain in 2017 years? I didn't know they had kept holiday sales records that long.