Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Frelga]

Wut.

[Sunsilver]

Interesting...

Wagner has a lot of support from Russian civilians. A video shows them giving the troops food and water.
And many civilians in Belarus protested the Russian invasion, despite Lukashenka supporting Putin.

This is NOT a popular war!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Col. Vindman is also reporting that.

[Frelga]

The problem with mercenaries is that they need to be paid to start fighting. And, unless you are very lucky, you end up paying them even more to stop.
Jingo 1997

[N.E. Brigand]

Channeling The Lord of the Rings and/or Star Wars, Ukraine's President Zelensky says: "Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself."

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Edited to add this bit of parody:

[N.E. Brigand]

A moment from earlier today, in Rostov I think:

[N.E. Brigand]

Max Seddon, chief Moscow correspondent for the Financial Times, cites Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that (1) Russia has dropped the charges against Yevgeny Prigozhin; (2) Prigozhin himself will decamp to Belarus (whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, is said to have negotiated the cease-fire); (3) those Wagner soldiers who didn't join Prigozhin's incursion into Russia will sign contracts* with Russia's Ministry of Defense; and (4) those Wagner soldiers who did follow Prigozhin wn't be charged (but are they done fighting in Ukraine? do they have to move to Belaurs also?). Notably, Peskov said nothing about Sergei Shoigu or other leaders of the Ministry of Defense -- whose actions supposedly motivated Prigozhin's quasi-rebellion -- being removed.

*A few days ago, the Ministry of Defense had announced a plan to put Wagner forces under their command, and some have seen this as a key precipitating event for the "coup."

Tom Nichols argues this is a big loss for Prigozhin. My best guess is that Prigozhin thought he could win military officials in Moscow to his side, and when that didn't happen, he gave up. But that's just a stab in the dark; I have no clue.

By the way, it was Peskov's office that Donald Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen spoke to in late 2015 about a deal to build a Trump tower in Moscow.

[Frelga]

So is there any reason to believe that putin is alive or at least conscious?

[N.E. Brigand]

Somehow I'd never heard the sledgehammer story before. (Warning: graphic descriptions of Wagner Group atrocities at link.)

[River]

Okay, I laughed a little too hard at this one.

I hope he brought enough to share.

Anyway, my husband summed up the situation this morning with a very succint "F*cking Slavs." He can say things like that. And then he speculated that the CIA was involved. I doubt it, but I don't think it matters if they were or weren't. They'll get blamed anyway, and the key players will still look like idiots.

ETA: Also, Moscow is getting a day off on Monday.

[Sunsilver]

This was in The Telegraph, too:

Ukraine Running Out of Popcorn....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... Doffensive.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Washington Post is reporting that U.S. intelligence agencies briefed Congressional leaders a few days ago that Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to be preparing to make a move against the Russian army that might result in a civil war. It appears that Vladimir Putin also realized in advance that something was up.

[Frelga]

Russia is a deeply fucked up country, but this was too fucked up even for Russia. I can't make it make sense.

From the available information, it looks like a lose/lose.

Putin lost a ton of face. A Russian army came to the gates of Moscow unopposed, and no one along the way or in Moscow itself cared about defending him. He lost 5 aircraft, an oil depot, the elites fled the country, and apparently control of 25K troops that left Ukraine.

Prigozhin did get his way in not being forced to report to MOD but not his stated demand of getting rid of Shoigu. Putin's loss of face should make Prigozhin a dead man, and Lukashenka is not going to protect him, so what does he get by going to Belarus? Did he just want a way out of the Ukrainian front lines for his best soldiers?

All I can make of it is that either I was right and Prigozhin was drunk on Friday night when he started it all - unlikely, given how well organized his mutiny was. Or, putin is really dead, and for some reason Prigozhin was persuaded not to blow the charade a while longer. Or sometimes else entirely is going on.

Screenshot_20230624-003123.jpg (76.41 KiB) Viewed 1169 times

[Sunsilver]

Putin is definitely NOT dead, unfortunately, and he's out to get Prigozhin and those who took part in the insurrection:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/putin-v ... eason.html

Earlier I came across a video of his speech with English subtitles, but of course, now that I want to post it I can't find it!

Ah, here we go! The Guardian has it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ement-full

I've used them so often for information I can't find elsewhere, they keep bugging me to subscribe. Maybe I should!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Russia is a deeply fucked up country, but this was too fucked up even for Russia. I can't make it make sense.

Here you go.



ETA: Also this:

[Sunsilver]

Wow, Vindeman's Twitter feed is certainly loaded with MAGA conservatives that hate his guts, and consider him a traitor! I really feel sorry for him - another good person who was removed from his job for telling the truth about Trump!

[Frelga]

One does have to account for the fact that no one involved in giving orders is very bright.

Here's a fairly reasonable post-mortem from a Russian mil blogger (who also doesn't know wtf happened), as translated by Anton Gerashchenko.

Russian "military blogger", supporter of war in Ukraine Voenkor Kotenok:

"It's time to summarize.

1. Of course, this is not a show. Aircraft were shot down. Pilots have been killed. Sure, we have "plenty" of airplanes in the country with helicopters. An armed military unit almost made it to the capital within 8 hours. The question arises - where is the Minister of Defense? We used to be shown a colonel general commanding a rifle platoon with shouts, "Forward, for the Motherland!" And may I ask, what prevented such a picture from being filmed now? Where is the CHOD (Chief of General Staff) with the operational directorates? Where is an address to his servicemen?

The President spoke, clearly stating this was a military rebellion. And where was the leadership of the Defense Ministry at the time of the armed unit's approach to Moscow? The patrols approached Kashira. Or is it the function of the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the National Guard to stop military units near the capital? But they have light weapons. The most they can do is to protect themselves in their buildings. In this case, very little can be demanded of them.

A question to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense: not only did you allow all this to happen - because if you had behaved normally, perhaps this would not have happened - but where were you on the day this was happening? Or are you only allowed to film clips when there is no threat so you can demonstrate a show to the President the show? Come to your senses, this is not a show. The country has been at war for a year.

2. The history of the events of 1991-1993 was repeated when the phones in the offices of high-ranking officials, who had to make the decisions, went silent. Is it okay that even an operational headquarters for suppressing the rebellion was not created?

No one knows what the negotiations were. Something was brewing internally, something was agreed upon. Thanks to Lukashenko and whoever it was. To the man who saved the country from the disgrace of taking the capital, God bless him.

3. They walked for 8 hours at average speed of a regular bus. It is a question of the loyalty of the elites to current state power. Do we really have to stop a military unit advancing on Moscow with road equipment and road works?

Wagner Group shot down the planes that attacked them. But the authorities have already reached an agreement with them, so there are minimal questions for them now. The question for us is, why give an order to aviation to assault a civilian road? Couldn't we make obstructions? Wasn't there a single tank from Moscow to Rostov to put on the road? Or organize a normal checkpoint and start talking? Not shoot, but negotiate to stop the convoy. Once again, where is military leadership? This is its direct function.

There are a lot of complaints against Wagner: armed, they went to Moscow. You can't behave like that when the country is at war. But besides them, there are a couple of other particularly talented figures. The command to raise helicopters and planes and to attacks a mixed convoy, in which, among other things, civilians are riding about their business, is "genius."

4. By the way, what will we do if the enemy comes like this tomorrow? They will go into the forest in Sumy region and will come out as a sub-unit near Kaluga and go to Moscow. Will it be the same? We will run like chickens without heads around the henhouse and try to flee the capital as far away as as we can? Scary scenarios. I don't even want to imagine.

5. To what level has the most respected and authoritative agency - the Ministry of Defense - been brought? Under martial law, it is not the head of the FSSD (Federal Security Service Directorate) that becomes the chief, but the senior military commander. They have introduced the counterterrorism operation regime, but where is the work of the COR HQ? Who was preparing the defense of Moscow? The government of Moscow and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

[N.E. Brigand]

From New York Times reporting on what happened Saturday:

"The conversation between Mr. Lukashenko and Mr. Prigozhin was 'very difficult,' said Mr. Gigin, who this month became the director of the National Library of Belarus. 'They immediately blurted out such vulgar things it would make any mother cry. The conversation was hard, and as I was told, masculine.'"

[Dave_LF]

Mr. Gigin seems to be awfully interested in things that are hard and masculine for a person living in a place where LGBTQ+ does not exist.

[N.E. Brigand]

Russian president Vladimir Putin seems to feel that Yevgeny Prigozhin is ungrateful for the Russian government paying the Wagner Group and Prigozhin's "catering" company a combined $2.14 billion (183 billion rubles) during the first war of the Ukraine invasion.

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Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken today provided a status update on financial support for Ukraine's defense against the Russian invasion:



The overwhelming number of top replies to Blinken's statement come from folks who want the U.S. to stop helping Ukraine.