The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[N.E. Brigand]

The judge in one of Hunter Biden's two federal criminal cases -- the one in California -- has ruled against Hunter's various motions to dismiss and did so well ahead of schedule. This was not unexpected (such motions usually fail). One of the decisions the judge made, however, was that the pre-trial diversion agreement that Hunter Biden signed with prosecutors "is a binding contract but performance of its terms is not yet required." The judge said that he will consider further arguments on this point, apparently because his decision differs from how both the prosecution and defense interpret the status of that agreement. It's not clear why the judge in the first case -- the one in Delaware -- who heard arguments more than a month before this judge, has yet to rule. It will be quite something if she rules that the diversion agreement is in force. (I have no idea if that's likely.)

[N.E. Brigand]

Fun fact: the word "Easter" actually comes from a variant of "Istar", alternatively an Assyrian goddess of fertility and war (now that's an interesting career change - do goddesses have mid-life crises?) or a wizard sent to Middle-earth to help against the war against Sauron....

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Meanwhile, what did Mark Twain say about lies and the truth?

[N.E. Brigand]

This feels ironic, or something. "A Texas National Guard soldier deployed from McAllen to Eagle pass under Operation Lonestar was busted for attempting to smuggle an illegal immigrant in a government vehicle on Sunday." Video here.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The Biden economic miracle continues.

U.S. Economy Added 303,000 Jobs in March

*waits for the next poll showing how Trump is much more trusted for handling the economy than Biden is*

[N.E. Brigand]

The Biden economic miracle continues.

U.S. Economy Added 303,000 Jobs in March

*waits for the next poll showing how Trump is much more trusted for handling the economy than Biden is*

I like that the rate also improved slightly, going from 3.9% to 3.8%.

That's 26 straight months under 4%. One more month and the current streak will tie for second place with Nov. 1967-Jan. 1970.

Edit: Today's report also noted that the combinerd January and February numbers were revised upwards (by 22,000 jobs: up 27,000 for January; down 5,000 for February). A complaint frequently made from the right is that the revisions are downward.

Edit: And the report notes that the labor force participation rate moved up from 62.5% to 62.7%. Remember: the unemployment rate tells you how many people who are looking for work can't get it. The labor force participation rate tells you how many people are looking for work. So today's report means that the unemployment rate fell even as more people entered the workforce.

(Edited to note Matt Yglesias's argument that now, when the economy is in great shape, is a good time to take steps to cut the U.S. deficit.)

[N.E. Brigand]

An study of 188 U.S. cities finds the murder rate has dropped by more than 20% on average as compared to first three months of 2023. (It's fallen in 75% of cities and risen in 25% of cities.) Here in Cleveland it's down 36%.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

An study of 188 U.S. cities finds the murder rate has dropped by more than 20% on average as compared to first three months of 2023. (It's fallen in 75% of cities and risen in 25% of cities.) Here in Cleveland it's down 36%.

*waits for the next MAGA Republican complaint about how violent crime is up.*

[N.E. Brigand]

In response to Friday's good jobs report, I've seen a lot of grumbling about how too much of the added employment is part-time. This chart explains why that's not really a problem: it's because most of these are people working part-time by choice rather than for economic reasons.

[N.E. Brigand]

The annual inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in March. That's not terrible, and there a reasons to think it will turn around, but it's well above the Federal Reserve target rate of 2% and will delay the reduction of interest rates.

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Axios reports that President Biden "plans to soon issue an executive order to dramatically limit the number of asylum-seekers who can cross the southern border." This order is expected by the end of the month. Biden said this during his interview with Univision. Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Naturalization Act give the president the power to limit asylum if not doing so would be "detrimental" to the United States. That's rather vague, but Donald Trump as president repeatedly turned to this provision, although sometimes the courts blocked him. Biden said in the interview that "We're examining whether or not I have that power. Some are suggesting that I should just go ahead and try it, and nd if I get shut down by the court, I get shut down by the court." He added that there is "no guarantee" courts will agree that he has this power. (This is why he wanted Congress to make something like this explicit in the immigration bill they spent months writing and abandoned.)

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Edited to add video of the interview:

[N.E. Brigand]

The annual inflation rate rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in March. That's not terrible, and there a reasons to think it will turn around, but it's well above the Federal Reserve target rate of 2% and will delay the reduction of interest rates.

Inflation is highest in Florida, whose governor, Ron DeSantis, is complaining about it but not taking any of the blame.

[N.E. Brigand]

The judge in one of Hunter Biden's two federal criminal cases -- the one in California -- has ruled against Hunter's various motions to dismiss and did so well ahead of schedule. This was not unexpected (such motions usually fail). One of the decisions the judge made, however, was that the pre-trial diversion agreement that Hunter Biden signed with prosecutors "is a binding contract but performance of its terms is not yet required." The judge said that he will consider further arguments on this point, apparently because his decision differs from how both the prosecution and defense interpret the status of that agreement. It's not clear why the judge in the first case -- the one in Delaware -- who heard arguments more than a month before this judge, has yet to rule. It will be quite something if she rules that the diversion agreement is in force. (I have no idea if that's likely.)

The judge in the other of Hunter Biden's federal cases -- the one in Delaware -- also has ruled against Hunter's motions to dismiss. As before, this seems to have been expected by most expert observers. But in my opinion, she says something egregiously wrong:

"Defendant's claim is effectively that his own father targeted him for being his son, a claim that is nonsensical under the facts here."

By the logic of that statement, Donald Trump would be correct to say that President Biden is targeting him.

However, all the evidence we have indicates that President Biden has kept to a hands-off approach to Dept. of Justice investigations -- as he should.

And the argument that Hunter Biden had made was that U.S. Attorney-turned-Special Counsel David Weiss scuttled his office's original agreement with Hunter and brought charges because of pressure from Republicans in Congress which resulted in Weiss and his family being threatened.

[N.E. Brigand]

The U.S. Federal Reserve (in-)famously has a "dual mandate": to effectuate both "maximum employment and price stability." Those two aims can be at odds with one another, and for decades, progressives have argued that the Fed was too focused on keeping interest rates low, i.e., price stability, i.e., fighting inflation, and not doing enough to seek full employment. Over those years, lots of progressives called for the Fed to raise its target inflation rate from 2% to 3% or 4% in order to achieve full employment.

Well, we've now had full employment -- unemployment rate below 5% -- for 29 straight months (since Sep. 2021), and inflation has averaged 3.5% over the past year, and nobody seems happy with that. Apparently people would rather not have a job but have lower prices -- never mind that the average wage has outpaced inflation, i.e., that on average, people have more money in their pockets even after accounting for higher prices.

[N.E. Brigand]

Here's an interesting Washington Post story I missed when it was published last year:

"How Red-state Politics Are Shaving Years Off American Lives."

The subject is three adjacent counties in different states: Ashtabula Co. in Ohio, Erie Co. in Pennsylvania, and Chautauqua Co. in New York.

Many of those early deaths can be traced to decisions made years ago by local and state lawmakers over whether to implement cigarette taxes, invest in public health or tighten seat-belt regulations, among other policies, an examination by The Washington Post found. States’ politics — and their resulting policies — are shaving years off American lives.

Ashtabula’s problems stand out compared with two nearby counties — Erie, Pa., and Chautauqua, N.Y. All three communities, which ring picturesque Lake Erie and are a short drive from each other, have struggled economically in recent decades as industrial jobs withered — conditions that contribute toward rising midlife mortality, research shows. None is a success story when it comes to health. But Ashtabula residents are much more likely to die young, especially from smoking, diabetes-related complications or motor vehicle accidents, than people living in its sister counties in Pennsylvania and New York, states that have adopted more stringent public health measures.

From 1980 to 2020, all three counties saw a decline in the death rate of people aged 35-64 that bottomed out in 2010 and then started rising. However, while Ashtabula Co. started out that period with the same death rate as Chautauqua Co. and ahead of that in Erie Co., now Ashtabula's death rate is 15% higher than Erie's and 20% higher than Chautauqua's.

Ohio has been governed by a a Republican governor and legislature for all but four years since 1995. Ohio's current Republican governor, Mike DeWine, actually supports raising taxes on tobacco and the implementation of tighter seat belt laws, but the state legislature hasn't acted.

DeWine has a “nanny state” mentality, said Ohio state Rep. Bill Seitz, the state House majority floor leader and fellow Republican who has helped block tobacco tax increases amid aggressive lobbying by industry interests. The 68-year-old Seitz, who smoked for 50 years before developing kidney cancer and having a kidney removed this summer, said he’s unmoved by his own brush with the health system — even if it led him to finally kick the habit.

“I’m not going to turn into a smoke Nazi just because I used to smoke and I don’t anymore,” Seitz said.

The trends described for these three states are mirrored nationally between Republican- and Democratic-controlled states.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Federal Trade Commission is investigating MGM Hotels for failing to secure customers' data.

So MGM has sued the FTC's head, Lina Khan, for conflict of interest, because Khan herself stayed at an MGM hotel (and they failed to secure her data).

If you steal from the police commissioner, the cops in that city can't investigate you. That's the law.

[Sunsilver]

I had a hard time figuring out where to put this, and finally decided that if I lived in the U.S.A., I'd like to see this mentioned as an election issue.

It's estimated that the literacy rate in the U.S. is somewhere between 79 and 86%. The survey I've linked to can't seem to make up its mind which statistic is correct. Another survey I saw last night used the 79% figure.

That means that countries like North Korea, Romania, Mongolia, Palestine, Viet Nam, Mexico and many of the Latin American and Muslim countries all have better literacy rates than the U.S.A. Most of the G7 countries are at 99-100% literacy.

To say this shocked me is putting it mildy!

https://www.crossrivertherapy.com/resea ... statistics

[RoseMorninStar]

N.E. that's crazy!

Sunny, I don't know if I'd trust statistics coming from some of those countries. Or I'd question if there is a world wide standard for what is considered 'literacy'. The U.S. uses different levels, most adults having at least level 1, but perhaps the standards are higher? MY search for 'world literacy rate' and the US (and Canada) are often not included or shown as 'no data'. That is odd.

[N.E. Brigand]

It appears that the only time Lee Chatfield, the former Republican speaker of Michigan's statehouse, was previously mentioned in these forums was when he did the right thing: in 2020, he condemned the men who plotted to kidnap Michigan's Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer:

The Republican Speaker of the House has already done what Trump will not.

Good for him (Lee Chatfield) and a big ol' shame on Donald Trump.

But today, Michigan's attorney general, Dana Nessel, announced that Chatfield and his wife, Stephanie, have been charged with multiple counts for embezzlement of funds both public and private (the latter from a non-profit foundation they ran).

[N.E. Brigand]

The Financial Times reports that the United States "is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts."

[N.E. Brigand]

It appears that the only time Lee Chatfield, the former Republican speaker of Michigan's statehouse, was previously mentioned in these forums was when he did the right thing: in 2020, he condemned the men who plotted to kidnap Michigan's Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer:

The Republican Speaker of the House has already done what Trump will not.

Good for him (Lee Chatfield) and a big ol' shame on Donald Trump.

But today, Michigan's attorney general, Dana Nessel, announced that Chatfield and his wife, Stephanie, have been charged with multiple counts for embezzlement of funds both public and private (the latter from a non-profit foundation they ran).

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Edited to add some more news about Michigan's legislature: "Michigan Democrats win special elections to regain full control of state government. The lower chamber has been tied 54-54 between Democratic and Republican lawmakers since November, when two Democratic representatives vacated their seats after winning mayoral races in their hometowns."

[N.E. Brigand]

The first time I heard of Pete Buttigieg was when someone shared this April 2019 video in which he announced that he was exploring a presidential run. What resonated for me was the lines, "There's no such thing as 'again' in the real world" and "We can't look for greatness in the past": two gentle digs at Donald Trump's stupidly nostalgic view of America, shared by so many on the far right.

But also among the younger generation the far left, it seems, to judge from the responses to Minnesota state legislature candidate Will Stancil observing today that "For the average person, cost of living, as a share of income, is lower than any point in American history. This is the most affordable time to be alive in the United States, ever!" It was particularly fascinating how many people got upset when he points out that it's never been unusual for people in their twenties to be unable to afford to live alone without a partner or roommate, particularly in expensive cities -- and this bit of false nostalgia can't really be a function of people's perception being distorted by the media, given that some very popular television shows of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s such as Three's Company, Golden Girls, Perfect Strangers, Friends, and Two and a Half Men all featured people who were unable to live alone. (For stats on housing and roommates, see also the charts here).