2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

So apparently it's a race against the clock in Georgia, where the two chambers of the Republican-controlled state legislature now have each passed a version of a bill, which the state's governor says he will sign into law once the versions are reconciled, that would create a panel that could remove prosecutors deemed to be acting improperly. And it's widely believed that a prime target of this forthcoming law is Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, who is overseeing an investigation into 2020 wrongdoing by Donald Trump and others. Trump himself is certainly cheering on the lawmakers who have passed these bills.

The history of this bill is interesting. It is actually goes back to 2020 and was introduced in a substantially similar form by Democrats in the Georgia legislature. Why? I will let Anna Bower, who writes about Georgia matters for LawFareBlog.com. Click on the tweet below to get read the full thread.

[N.E. Brigand]

Very interesting history! Thanks for sharing that, V.

[N.E. Brigand]

Just read that in 2020, Tucker Carlson referred to Donald Trump as a "demonic force."

I wish he had spelled it "daimonic."

[N.E. Brigand]

In the days following the 2020 election, Fox News producers were quietly sharing stories from NBC's election analyst Steve Kornacki and the New York Times with each other, because they understood that other media outlets may have biases but hold themselves accountable to the trtuh.

[N.E. Brigand]

So apparently it's a race against the clock in Georgia, where the two chambers of the Republican-controlled state legislature now have each passed a version of a bill, which the state's governor says he will sign into law once the versions are reconciled, that would create a panel that could remove prosecutors deemed to be acting improperly. And it's widely believed that a prime target of this forthcoming law is Fani Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, who is overseeing an investigation into 2020 wrongdoing by Donald Trump and others. Trump himself is certainly cheering on the lawmakers who have passed these bills.

The history of this bill is interesting. It is actually goes back to 2020 and was introduced in a substantially similar form by Democrats in the Georgia legislature. Why? I will let Anna Bower, who writes about Georgia matters for LawFareBlog.com. Click on the tweet below to get read the full thread.

Another example of the road to hell being paved with good intentions. Democrats realized -- apparently even before Fani Willis launched her investigation into Donald Trump -- that such a bill would do more harm than good to the cause of justice and abandoned it as Republicans saw it as a useful tool to further their own ends. The fact that the bill has been around for that long but has only lately passed the Georgia legislature -- just as Willis's special purpose grand jury has recommended indictments, apparently including an indictment for Donald Trump -- makes me question Bower's statement that the bill, following concerns Republicans raised in January 2021, is aimed at "progressive DAs, *not* tough-on-crime DAs like Willis."

I notice in the replies that Bower cites a different thread where she wrote:

1. The earliest Willis could be removed would likely be 2024 -– well after indictments have been issued.

2. Cases don’t just disappear when there's a district attorney turnover.

That seems awfully naive. The history of the Dept. of Justice during Donald Trump's presidency shows exactly how bad prosecutors can make cases go away. Michael Flynn just a few days ago filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government thanks to the DOJ's efforts to retroactively undermine their case against him. The U.S. Attorney in New York believes he was fired to protect people associate with President Trump. The entire investigation by Special Counsel John Durham was part of an effort to undermine Special Counsel Robert Mueller's findings about Trump's behavior. For uncertain reasons, Rod Rosenstein kept Robert Mueller from investigating Donald Trump's finances and promised Trump he would shut it down ("land the plane") as soon as feasible, so that Mueller left lots of loose ends when he stepped down. I don't have much faith that things go any better at the state level, particularly in a state currently controlled by Republicans, although I do acknowledge Bower's point that Willis is in a heavily Democratic district. Surely a prime goal of Trump's supporters is delay: once he's president again, no trial will proceed, the statute of limitations will run out, and that will be that.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I thought about Michael Flynn as soon as I saw that comment by Bower. Nonetheless, as a general rule she is correct. And if Republicans are able to get Willis removed it is likely that she will ultimately be replaced by someone who would be interested in continuing the prosecution in very blue Fulton County. Indeed, one of the ironies is that Willis is pretty moderate Democrat and known as a law and order prosecutor; not at all the type of soft on crime prosecutor that the Republicans initially wanted to target when they began championing this bill. It is pretty likely that is she gets forced out she could be replaced by someone that the GOP likes less. Or so I understand.

In any event, if there is going to be indictments they are almost certainly going to come within the next months or so. A new "regular" grand jury was just empaneled the other day and presumably Willis will be presenting the case to them soon.

Meanwhile in NY reportedly someone close to the Manhattan D.A.'s office has stated something to the effect that Trump should beward the Ides of March. Which of course is coming next week.

[N.E. Brigand]

The Proud Boys sedition trial hit a potentially serious bump yesterday when it was found that a spreadsheet prosecutors shared with defense attorneys accidentally omitted a number of columns. Then today prosecutors said that the spreadsheet also contains classified material that the defense never should have received in the first place. The trial has paused until Monday for each side to conduct a review. Depending on what exactly was or was not provided, and whether the missing material could have informed a stronger defense, this is the kind of thing that can lead to the judge declaring a mistrial (something which the defense attorneys have asked for on other grounds multiple times every single day of the trial). That said, the judge in the case says that he thinks that while this appeared yesterday to be a "five alarm fire," it now appears to be only a "one alarm fire."

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The Proud Boys sedition trial hit a potentially serious bump yesterday when it was found that a spreadsheet prosecutors shared with defense attorneys accidentally omitted a number of columns. Then today prosecutors said that the spreadsheet also contains classified material that the defense never should have received in the first place. The trial has paused until Monday for each side to conduct a review. Depending on what exactly was or was not provided, and whether the missing material could have informed a stronger defense, this is the kind of thing that can lead to the judge declaring a mistrial (something which the defense attorneys have asked for on other grounds multiple times every single day of the trial). That said, the judge in the case says that he thinks that while this appeared yesterday to be a "five alarm fire," it now appears to be only a "one alarm fire."

I believe that you have two separate issues mixed up. In addition to the issue with the spreadsheet (which as you note became more complicated today by the assertion by the prosecution that there may have been classified information revealed), there was also an issue that arose of possible attorney-client violations. It was that issue that Judge Kelly was referring to that went from a five alarm fire to the one alarm fire, at least according to Roger Parloff's reporting.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

Showing some Capitol security camera footage from January 6th on Fox News last week, Tucker Carlson argued that it reveals the "QAnon shaman," Jacob Chansley, was actually quite peaceful on that day. Today some reporters obtained and published this previously unseen video taken by some of the insurrectionists themselves showing the very moment that Chansley entered the Capitol, after some others broke through a window and then opened a door from the inside.* The footage also shows that Chansley and his comrades got quite close to a senator (some speculate that this is Chuck Grassley of Iowa) being evacuated by a security detail.

*Edit: see also this video showing that very door being kicked open so that Chansley and others could enter.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[N.E. Brigand]

Mother Jones has obtained audio of Steve Bannon on Oct. 31, 2020 discussing election strategy with Guo Wengui, the exiled Chinese billionaire on whose yacht Bannon had been arrested earlier that year. The article is titled "Bannon Bragged That He Used Porn to Help Smear Hunter Biden." Bannon praised Guo's "editorial creativity" in mixing apparently genuine explicit content from Hunter's laptop -- which Bannon says he gave to Guo (apparently having received it from Rudy Giuliani?) -- with "false claims about the material":

First, [Guo] told [his staff who were posting the material online] to say the files included images of Hunter Biden with underage Chinese girls. There is no evidence at all supporting this allegation. Second, Guo told subordinates to claim that the Chinese government had obtained the material and used it to blackmail Hunter and his father, Joe Biden. That, too, was a lie, people involved in publishing the material told me.

In the recordings, Bannon also says -- more than a week before the election -- that the lies Guo spread about Hunter Biden were keeping Donald Trump close enough in the polls that Joe Biden would not be able to win in a blowout, which meant that Trump could adopt his backup "strategy" of claiming that there was fraud and declaring victory even if he was behind in the votes. Bannon went on: "So my point is, any peaceful resolution of this [election] is probably gone."

I'd never encountered the term "Faraday bag" before reading today's news about Guo Wengui (real name Ho Wan Kwok), the exiled Chinese billionaire and Steve Bannon's erstwhile funder and host. Guo was charged today in a $1 billion fraud scheme. In a request for detention, the government explains:

"A faraday bag is a type of shielding device or enclosure that blocks the passage of radio frequency emissions and is used to, among other things, prevent electronic devices from electronic surveillance by blocking the transmission of radio waves that may be used to intercept or listen in on communications."

It turns out that the government searched Guo's home in 2019 in connection with some other unrelated investigation, and in that search they found some 96 cell phones, "44 of which were located inside Faraday bags in safes."

[RoseMorninStar]

It's usually called a Faraday cage.

[N.E. Brigand]

That term I had heard before. And I see that Wikipedia article on Faraday cages does include a reference to Faraday bags.

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There was a fire in the building where Guo lives today while the FBI was still conducting its search of his dwellings.

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Returning more directly to the 2020 election, this time-lapse footage is striking:

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This ongoing Proud Boys seditious conspiracy trial is a circus. Here we have an attorney for one the defendants objecting, then the prosecutor objecting to that attorney's repeated (and often ridiculous) objections, and then an attorney for one of the other defendants objecting to the prosecutor's objection to the first attorney's objections.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Reprising his actions in the Mar-a-Lago document case (but with different lawyers), Trump has filed a completely bogus motion to "quash" the special grand jury report and recuse the Fulton Count D.A.




As Brad Moss says:

[N.E. Brigand]

In other Georgia news, Fani Willis has asked (but not subpoenaed) sometime Trump attorney and OANN anchor Christina Bobb to testify to the regular grand jury convened in the 2020 elections investigation. It's not expected that Bobb will agree to this. Bobb's attorney says he can't imagine why his client would be asked to appear, but she was deeply involved in efforts to overturn the election. What's curious is that the request would only come now, months after the special-purpose grand jury that recommended indictments has concluded its work. My guess is that Bobb's name came up in the material or testimony being considered by the grand jury and they want to know more about her role.

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There was a partial verdict in the third Oath Keepers trial today. This group was not charged with seditious conspiracy. Jordan Fischer of WUSA-9 has compiled this helpful chart showing verdicts in all three trials:



Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, Harrelson, Watkins, and Caldwell were defendants in the first trial, whose verdict was announced on November 29th.

Minuta, Hackett, Moerschel, and Vallejo were defendants in the second trial, whose verdict was announced on January 23rd.

Bennie Parker, Sandra Parker, Steele, Connie Meggs, Isaccs, and Greene were defendants in the third trial, whose partial verdict was announced today. As you can see, there are two "no verdict" listings, one each for Bennie Parker and Michael Greene. The jury was sent back to continue deliberating those.

Fischer says that at least three more Oath Keepers have been charged and await trial. I believe I've been within a few hundred feet of one of them: James Beeks aka "James T. Justis" is a professional actor who played Judas in a nationally touring production of Jesus Christ Superstar -- and that production had one performance right next door to where I work in March 2020, before being shut down due to the pandemic.

(Wikipedia has not been keeping up with these trials. As far as I can tell, only the results of the first one are listed there.)

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Meanwhile prosecutors last week called their last witness in the Proud Boys' seditious conspiracy trial, and the defense began presenting their case today. From the reports I've read, it looks like the defense witnesses are having a difficult time when cross-examined.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

More bad news (of their own making) for Fox News.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

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