Chaos in Congress

[Frelga]

It's been two days and every time I see the title of this thread I just think

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Meanwhile, Trump's response to the mess is to make more racist attacks against Elaine Chao.



As I will post in another thread, they are not the only racist attacks that he has engaged in today.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The McCarthy-ites tried to get another adjournment today but neither the Democrats nor the insurgents would go along to give them 218 votes for the adjournment, so there is a new vote going on now.

This time the insurgents nominated Byron Donalds, an African-American Freedom Caucus member, and he already has 12 votes, so McCarthy has already lost.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

McCarthy lost another vote. GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz, who previously voted for him, voted present. Final vote was 212 - 201 - 20. Jeffries was actually only 5 votes from winning as only 217 votes would have been needed for a majority of the 433 votes cast.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You can't even make this shit up.

[River]

They are reaping what they have sown...

Was no one in the GOP leadership taking notes on how Pelosi et al kept their firebrands in line? Is there anyone in the GOP Caucus with the strength to impose that kind of discipline? The people skills to foster trusting relationships within all corners of the caucus? I know when Ryan was in charge it was a constant circus with the loony wing screeching and hollering and refusing to do anything basic and eventually Ryan would need some Democrats to get even basic governance done. But Ryan was at least able to get the loonies to put him in the Speaker's office. McCarthy can't even do that much and no one seems capable of putting up a real contender.

ETA: Interesting that Trump's public statements in support of McCarthy are of no help to McCarthy when it comes to the Freedom Caucus. Remember, some of these people disputed the results of the 2020 Presidential election because Trump lost.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You do remember why the GOP had to turn to Ryan in the first place, right? It was because McCarthy (he was Majority Leader when Boehner was Speaker) did not have the votes then either. But they don't have a Paul Ryan to turn to now.

[River]

I forgot about that.

Yeesh. He clearly hasn't won the allies he needs within his caucus since then.

[N.E. Brigand]

I started a post around midday today, when the most recent item in this thread was V commenting on the picture of Paul Gosar talking yesterday with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but then I had other matters to attend to, and by the time I finished the post and submitted it, I found its contents were much overtaken by subsequent events (usually I can see others' subsequent posts during the preview phase but for some reason I didn't notice those today until it was too late). So I've deleted what I wrote here before.

All I have to add now is that McCarthy has already lost too many votes to win on the sixth ballot, so there will have to be a seventh.

- - - - - - - - - -
Edited to add: Josh Marshall yesterday predicted that not only won't McCarthy be speaker, but that he won't even be in Congress six months from now, so great is this disgrace. But does that presuppose that McCarthy has any actual ability to feel?

Edited further to add: Sheer stupidity appears to be playing a role in this fiasco. For example, one of the breakaway Republicans, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, seems to not understand that Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling means the U.S. would default on its financial obligations, with potentially disastrous consequences.

[River]

If he were one of my coworkers I'd tell him to stop, go get some fresh air, and offer coverage so he can maybe go home early. And then, once his head's cleared a bit, I'd even sit down with him to walk him through his results and discuss an approach to troubleshooting.

But I am not one of his coworkers. And I have no idea if the labrat style of sanity check even works on politicians. That said, someone's gotta intervene because this stuff, this stuff happening right here, this is just unhealthy.

[N.E. Brigand]

You do remember why the GOP had to turn to Ryan in the first place, right? It was because McCarthy (he was Majority Leader when Boehner was Speaker) did not have the votes then either. But they don't have a Paul Ryan to turn to now.

I never understood why McCarthy withdrew from consideration in 2015. There was some vague hint at a scandal, but I never saw clear reporting about that. Today Matt Yglesias explains that "the press wouldn’t really report the reason, which is that people thought he was having an affair with then-Rep. Renée Ellmers," who represented North Carolina's second district from 2011 to 2017. (Both McCarthy and Elmers were and are married.) However, it turns out there was some reporting, like this piece in Salon, which portrays the rumor as a vile smear started by far-right extremists -- along the lines of the rumors spread in South Carolina in 2000 to help George Bush beat John McCain. Yglesias goes on to note that "Ellmers ended up getting redistricted into an incumbent-on-incumbent race in the 2016 primary cycle. Conservatives backed her opponent because she was allegedly too moderate on issues like the Export-Import Bank. Donald Trump endorsed Ellmers but she lost to George Holding." Holding won reelection in 2018 but didn't run again in 2020 after his district became more Democratic.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The reports at the time mostly pointed to the impropriety of hos comments about Hillary Clinton and the Benghazi investigations. Whether there was more to it I don't know.

[N.E. Brigand]

This claim feels correct to me: "If the Squad blocked Nancy Pelosi from being elected speaker on six consecutive ballots, the New York Times would have a front page 'news analysis' piece asking whether the Democratic Party can continue to exist in the United States." (And the Squad could have done it: on Jan. 3, 2021, there were six members, which would have been enough to block Pelosi's speakership without Republican votes, and I am quite sure those would not have been forthcoming.) Or as Brian Beutler says, "We’re all prisoners of Murc’s Law taking hold of the political establishment."

That said, some Democrats are already saying they're open to compromise:

Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.) tells Fox News: "I would consider the right Republican someone I could trust, like Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Gallagher -- who actually spoke eloquently on the floor -- or David Joyce, but there needs to be two conditions.

1. One, you can't have debt ceiling the debt ceiling debate or shut down as something that takes the country hostage . . .

2. [There would have to be] some agreement on subpoena power, but I'm open to a Republican who could work to put the interests of the American people."

It's not going to happen, of course, because Republicans won't agree to such a compromise choice.

I agree with Marcy Wheeler that one motivating factor of the Republican obstructionists is probably the fear of prosecution for their part in the January 6th insurrection, which they can work to undermine if they have sufficient power on the relevant House committees.

[RoseMorninStar]

If I'm not mistaken, someone from outside of congress can be elected speaker of the house, is that correct? Is all of this turmoil intentional so that such a suggestion is put forward? If a non-elected (by the American people) person becomes speaker, are they still 3rd in line to the presidency?

I fear this chaos may be intentional .. to showcase that democracy doesn't work and push forward the idea of whatever type of governance Steve Bannon and his ilk are trying to bring about.

[N.E. Brigand]

If I'm not mistaken, someone from outside of congress can be elected speaker of the house, is that correct? Is all of this turmoil intentional so that such a suggestion is put forward? If a non-elected (by the American people) person becomes speaker, are they still 3rd in line to the presidency?

It's never been done, but you're right that the Speaker need not be a member of Congress -- and there's been lots of talk lately about that possibility. Names that have been floated recently include three former relatively moderate Republican members of Congress: Fred Upton, Liz Cheney, and Justin Amash. I believe Amash has actually been hanging around the Capitol over the past couple days. On the other hand, ever since Donald Trump left the White House, there have been suggestions on the far right that he could be the next Speaker. And yes, I believe that person, even if elected only by a majority in the House than by any set of the public, would be second in the line of presidential succession. However, I don't think anyone considers a non-member as serious possibility.

It appears that some more backroom deals are being struck that may yet get Kevin McCarthy the speakership. Punchbowl News reports that the Club for Growth (aligned with at least some of the insurgents) has struck a deal with the Conservative Leadership Fund (which supports McCarthy) in which the latter will "stop spending in safe open-seat primaries," an activity which has apparently frustrated the far-right members. I think this means that in a Republican-held district where Democrats have no shot at winning, McCarthy's PAC will not defend the incumbents, making them more vulnerable to challenges from the far right.

But if this is true: imagine if you are such an incumbent who has voted for McCarthy on the previous six ballots. McCarthy has just made it much easier for you to lose your seat. Will you now vote for him?

Here's another view of this deal: "The hilarity of the GOP. Two warlords cut some deal most people can't even understand. But since the GOP is now funded by about a dozen billionaires this is huge somehow. Translated this is basically: no more trying to beat down the kind of freaks who made 2022 a disaster for us."

Edit: McCarthy has just said he doesn't want another vote tonight.

Edit: I'm not the only one who suspects such a deal is illegal -- but of course the FEC would never enforce the law.

[N.E. Brigand]

Kevin McCarthy won!

That is: he won the motion to adjourn until noon tomorrow. It was 216 (only Republicans) to 214 (including four Republicans), with four members (two from each party) not voting.

Edited to add: Jake Tapper of CNN says a House Republican told him "there was talk of a fellow Kevin McCarthy-supporter nominating Steve Scalise to be Speaker tonight, which is one of the reasons McCarthy called for immediate vote to adjourn until noon Thursday."

(edited to fix typo)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Reportedly, the deal with the Conservative Leadership Fund could get 10 additional votes for McCarthy. But he needs more than that, and it is not clear whether it will cost him votes.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Here's the latest. It remains to be seen whether this will succeed in getting him the votes he needs.

[RoseMorninStar]

Enabling a small irrational fringe wing to run the country? Obstruct, disorder, chaos, mobocracy... those involved in the insurrection. It's poor choice in 'leadership', one who will never be able to guide and direct those he is supposed to lead.

[N.E. Brigand]

Because there are currently no members of the House of Representatives, their offices are having a hard time engaging in constituent services.