2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

[N.E. Brigand]

This is how you do it:

[N.E. Brigand]

For the first time since 1983, Democrats will control the Michigan state senate.

And the Michigan house.

[N.E. Brigand]

But Democrats had a rough night in Congressional races in New York. Among other losses there, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC (the House Democrats' reelection group), despite having presided over a remarkably good midterm year for the House, himself lost his seat.

And Florida was a disaster for Democrats.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

FWIW.

OPRAH ENDORSES JOHN FETTERMAN OVER LONGTIME FRIEND DR. OZ

At least someone thinks it was worth a lot.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

But Democrats had a rough night in Congressional races in New York. Among other losses there, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC (the House Democrats' reelection group), despite having presided over a remarkably good midterm year for the House, himself lost his seat.

New York democrats overreached and tried to create a grossly disproportionate electoral map that then got thrown out by the courts and replaced by a more GOP-friendly map. If they had tried to go so far the map likely would not have been thrown out. I think it probably cost the Democrats 2 or 3 seats, at least.

Sadly, Wisconsin has now been called for Johnson. While Arizona is still too close to call, I think Kelly should hold on. Nevada probably won't be able to be called into later in the week.

One thing I haven't really seen anyone talk about is that Georgia changed its rules for run-offs. You will recall that in the 2020 election, the run-off actually was in January 2021, but this time it is scheduled for December 6. By the time they actually declare that there needs to be a runoff and get it set up, there will be little or no time for early or mail-in voting, which could severely hurt Warnock's chances.

Marcy "I like to call people names like Trump does" Wheeler makes another good observation:

[Frelga]

I'm trying to limit my news checking until we know the final outcome in the Congress. So far, I'm getting a "could be worse, probably couldn't be much better" vibe.

Looks like Dem Governors have done well.

In what may or may not be related news, Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu made a televised announcement that Russian troops are leaving Kherson and withdrawing across Dnipro.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You're probably going to have to limit your news checking for a while!

[Eldy]

I only glanced at the results a couple times last night since I didn't really feel up to following the horse race results as they trickled in, but all in all it seems like the Democrats held on decently well by the standards of incumbent parties during midterms. Pennsylvania going blue in both the Senate and gubernatorial elections would seem to bode well for the Dems in 2024. Fingers crossed for the final results in Congress.

Maryland is a deep blue state so it wasn't a surprise that the Trumpian who won the GOP primary got trounced, but I was still pleased to see it. Less so Vance winning in Ohio; what a trajectory he's had since his never-Trump days in 2016.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's hard to believe that your new governor-elect, Wes Moore, will be only the third African-American governor of any state in the U.S. following Virginia’s Doug Wilder and Massachusetts’ Deval Patrick. Definitely a rising star.

[Eldy]

Definitely a rising star.

May he fare better than Martin O'Malley if he ever makes a bid for the national stage.

[N.E. Brigand]

But Democrats had a rough night in Congressional races in New York. Among other losses there, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC (the House Democrats' reelection group), despite having presided over a remarkably good midterm year for the House, himself lost his seat.

New York democrats overreached and tried to create a grossly disproportionate electoral map that then got thrown out by the courts and replaced by a more GOP-friendly map. If they had tried to go so far the map likely would not have been thrown out. I think it probably cost the Democrats 2 or 3 seats, at least.

Yes, Democrats tried and failed to do in New York what Republicans succeeded in doing in Ohio. But here the courts have thrown out the map multiple times, and Republicans just kept coming back with more bad maps until it was too late to fix them before the election. And last night, Republicans won control of the state's supreme court, so it's very likely the bad maps will never be fixed.

As I noted last night, there is some good news: Democrats in Ohio had been expected to win only 2 of 15 U.S. House seats. That forecast grew to 3 seats when Marcy Kaptur's Republican opponent imploded a few weeks ago. But Democrats managed to pull out 2 more wins, increasing their number to 5 seats.

That's still disproportionate to the percentage of Democratic voters in the state (46%), so Democrats here ought to have 7 of 15 seats.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Sadly, I think that Lauren Boebert is going to eke out a victory. According to Decision Desk HQ, she has closed to within 62 votes (!!!) with 94% of the vote counted. Given how much ground she has made up already, it seems likely that she will prevail, unless the more favorable areas to her are the ones that have already been counted and the areas more favorable to Adam Frisch are still to be counted. Either way I suspect that there will be a recount.

[Snowdog]

Well, it seems the 'red wave' turned out to be a sheared lapping at the ankles. Sadly, the house will flip, but not by much. Here's to hoping the senate remains 50-50. Guess we wait for December to find out.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Sadly, I think that Lauren Boebert is going to eke out a victory. According to Decision Desk HQ, she has closed to within 62 votes (!!!) with 94% of the vote counted. Given how much ground she has made up already, it seems likely that she will prevail, unless the more favorable areas to her are the ones that have already been counted and the areas more favorable to Adam Frisch are still to be counted. Either way I suspect that there will be a recount.

Based on this it sounds like Frisch still has a good chance, if the votes continue to come in roughly the same percentages.

[River]

Boebert, in the past 20 minutes or so, was 36 votes up on Frisch and then another batch got counted and she's down by 97. It's going to a recount regardless, but before that happens they need to count cured ballots. So this is going to drag on through next week.

It was supposed to be a safe R seat, BTW.

I haven't followed Kyle Clark's Twitter feed this closely since the Marshall Fire, when I was trying to figure out if the fire was coming around the lake to take out my neighborhood.

ETA: now 64 votes.

ETA again: This is much more fun than the Marshall Fire.

[RoseMorninStar]

ETA again: This is much more fun than the Marshall Fire.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Regarding the Nevada Senate race:

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Boebert is now up by 433 votes.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Front cover of the Murdoch-owned NY Post:

[RoseMorninStar]