2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

This is a pretty big deal, though it is far more likely to lead to charges against someone other than Trump than Trump himself.

Email reveals Trump campaign told fake electors in Georgia to use 'complete secrecy'

[RoseMorninStar]

It's so blatant and bizarre. It's hard for me to understand why charges are not a slam dunk but I suppose it has to do with the particularities of the law. It's a pretty big deal that the seditious conspiracy charges stuck against the Proud boys, etc.. because that's historically proven difficult to charge.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I think part of the problem is that it IS so blatant and bizarre. Nothing like this has happened in this country in recent memory (or, perhaps, ever), so prosecutors are really wary of proceeding on untreaded ground. My secret hope is that a similar email will surface that confirms that Enrigue Tarrio (the leader of the Proud Boys) or someone else met directly with Trump before 1/6. Or that one of the individuals charged will flip and testify that they were coordinating directly with Trump himself, and his team. I have little doubt that Trump himself is guilty of seditious conspiracy, but proving it beyond a reasonable doubt (and that standard would apply a thousand-fold to Trump) is passingly difficult if not impossible.

[RoseMorninStar]

I agree that 'saying the quiet part out loud' has been an effective strategy for Trump.

Trump's tactics follow those of the traditional Queen Bee* of a 'mean girl'* group. They get others to do their bidding and never take the blame. Punishment & consequences fall to those in the 'hive' and are expendable. The Queen Bee excels at not getting their own hands dirty and appearing blameless.

*While the terms 'Queen Bee' and 'mean girls' (manifested by empowerment, bullying, aggression, cruelty, and ruthlessness) are usually applied derogatorily to women (and deemed just doing business in men?) I feel it applies to everyone equally. It's nasty behavior. Perhaps in men it is call 'mob' behavior?

[N.E. Brigand]

A judge yesterday ruled that more documents in the possession of Donald Trump's attorney John Eastman are not privileged and must be provided to the January 6th Committee. The judge's ruling indicates that a second document (in addition to the one he identified in a previous ruling) not only isn't privileged but may represent evidence of a crime. And he sheds more light on what Eastman's files reveal about the plans by Trump and his team to prevent Joe Biden from becoming president:

The previously disclosed documents indicate that Dr. Eastman and President Trump's plan to disrupt the Joint Session as fully formed and actionable as early as December 7, 2020. On that day, Dr. Eastman forwarded a memo explaining why January 6 was the "Hard Deadline" that was "critical to the result of this election" for the Trump Campaign. A week later, on December 13, President Trump's personal attorney received a more robust analysis of January 6's significance, which was potentially "the first time members of President Trump's team transformed a legal interpretation of the Electoral Count Act into a day-by-day plan of action.

Meanwhile, ABC reports that Pat Cipollone, who was White House Counsel under Donald Trump and apparently in communication with Trump during the insurrection -- and who may have warned Trump about his plans -- is in talks to be interviewed by the January 6th Committee.

Finally, here's an interesting piece by Barb McQaude, a law professor who was the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan in Obama's administration. McQuade has experience bringing seditious conspiracy charges, albeit not good experience: her office prosecuted members of the Hutaree militia, who were alleged in 2010 to have been plotting a war against the U.S. government, but a judge threw out most of the charges in 2012 on the grounds that the plot was merely an exercise in free speech. (And maybe it was.) Only two members ultimately were convicted for (or pleaded guilty to) possession of an illegal machine gun. McQuade discusses what various people who worked for Trump may testify about:

"Witnesses with Baggage" -- Anticipating the Jan. 6 Hearings and Related Investigations

Edited to add: I failed to note what the judge says could be evidence of criminality: he notes that an attorney working with the Trump team specifically advises against seeking a court ruling that favored their interpretation of the Electoral Count Act (i.e., that Vice President Pence had the power to out ballots from certain states), because it might not go their way. Instead, the judge writes, the campaign "forged ahead with a political plan to disrupt the electoral count. Lawyers are free not to bring cases. They are not free to evade judicial review to overturn a democratic election" (emphasis added).

[N.E. Brigand]

Roger Stone was pardoned by Donald Trump on December 23, 2020.

Roger Stone clearly was involved in coordinating the events of January 6, 2021.

If it is eventually shown that Stone's insurrectionist activities and the pardon were both part of a quid pro quo, then:

1. Can Donald Trump be prosecuted for offering the pardon?

2. Can Roger Stone be prosecuted for accepting the pardon?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

No.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

“President Trump oversaw a sophisticated seven-part plan to overturn the 2020 election and prevent the transition of presidential power.

1. President Trump engaged in a massive effort to spread false and fraudulent information to the American public claiming the 2020 election was stolen from him.
2. President Trump corruptly planned to replace the Acting Attorney General, so that the Department of Justice would support his fake election claims.
3. President Trump corruptly pressured Vice President Pence to refuse to count certified electoral votes in violation of the US Constitution and the law.
4. President Trump corruptly pressured state election officials, and state legislators, to change election results.
5. President Trump’s legal team and other Trump associates instructed Republicans in multiple states to create false electoral slates and transmit those slates to Congress and the National Archives.
6. President Trump summoned and assembled a violent mob in Washington and directed them to march on the US Capitol.
7. As the violence was underway, President Trump ignored multiple pleas for assistance and failed to take immediate action to stop the violence and instruct his supporters to leave the Capitol.

These are initial findings and the Select Committee’s investigation is still ongoing. In addition, the Department of Justice is currently working with cooperating witnesses, and has disclosed to date only certain of the information it has identified from encrypted communications and other sources.”

[N.E. Brigand]

I was out and am only catching up on bits of the hearing now. Saw a video montage from January 6th that makes it clear to me that not nearly enough people have been arrested yet. And I heard about the news that prompted one senator to tweet this tonight:



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Meanwhile...

Three months ago, in early March 2022, Enrique Tarrio and four other Proud Boys were indicted for obstruction of an official proceeding for the actions they took on Jan. 6, 2021. Tarrio himself wasn't at the insurrection, because he had been arrested the previous day for violating his bail conditions on the charges he faced for his actions on Dec. 12, 2020 -- after he made a visit, still inadequately explained, to the White House -- but the government alleges he was coordinating the Proud Boys' Jan. 6th activities.

Today a superseding indictment has been issued to add a charge of seditious conspiracy.

Previously members of another militia group named the Oath Keepers had also been charged with seditious conspiracy.

You can see numerous pictures of prominent Republicans posing with Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio (and a few other insurrectionists) here:

[N.E. Brigand]

Capitol Police Officer Caroline Edwards testified at tonight's hearing that: "What I saw was just a war scene. There were officers on the ground. They were bleeding. They were throwing up. I saw friends with blood all over their faces. I was slipping in people’s blood. I was catching people as they fell. It was carnage. It was chaos."

[RoseMorninStar]

I watched the entire thing tonight. I thought perhaps it would be over my head but I think it was laid out effectively and understandably for a lay person, even if I may not know what the particulars of the law might be (they often don't match my outrage).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Does anyone really think that any of it will make the slightest bit of difference? I'd like to believe that it will, but I can't.

[Alatar]

Its depressing to see it all laid out in black and white and know it will be ignored.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It really is, Al; particularly what it says about the citizenship of the U.S. All of us.

[RoseMorninStar]

Yes, unfortunately. Like mass shootings and gun violence. it's gone beyond the point of return.

[elengil]

Does anyone really think that any of it will make the slightest bit of difference? I'd like to believe that it will, but I can't.

Nope.

Partly because we don't have the stomach to actually hold politicians accountable, and partly because there are still too many who will trade their soul for power, and they won't care about right or wrong or law or morality, they just want power at all costs and if they can't win legitimately they will rig and cheat and steal and do any kind of underhanded thing to gain or retain that power. And they will certainly never stoop to using that power for the broader good, only for further self-enrichment.

The time to have addressed this was decades ago and we didn't. Now it's too late.

[N.E. Brigand]

Does anyone really think that any of it will make the slightest bit of difference?

Yes.

But even if it didn't, "defeat is no refutation."

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The Washington Post has new reporting on the role of Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, in the efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Mrs. Thomas reached out to 29 Republican members of the Arizona legislature to encourage them to overrule the state's voters and pick a slate of Trump electors instead.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Does anyone really think that any of it will make the slightest bit of difference?

Yes.

But even if it didn't, "defeat is no refutation."

Can you expand on that, particularly what difference you think it will make?

[N.E. Brigand]

There are people who don't know what happened who will learn about it for the first time because of the hearings.

Everything makes a difference. And sometimes a small difference can have big consequences.

This is why I continue to maintain that Donald Trump wouldn't have been president in the first place if not for Russian interference, despite countless claims from the right and the far left that Trump won solely because Hillary Clinton was a poor candidate (albeit a candidate who got millions more votes than Trump). If fewer than 40,000 people, out of nearly 129 million who voted (i.e., a little more than one-tenth of one percent) had picked Clinton rather than Trump, she would have become president. For relatively little cost and effort, Russia got its message about Clinton out to more than 150 million Americans (with those 40,000 folks in the subset that was particularly targeted, with help from Donald Trump's campaign chair).

It didn't take much to lead the U.S. into disaster. It may not take much to lead the U.S. away from disaster.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks. That all makes sense. Of course, it would have had to be the right 40,000 people, in the right states, but I agree that Russian interference in the election (with Trump and his teams tacitly cooperation) was a significant reason why he won the electoral college. And while it is possible that in a close election enough people might be swayed by learning more about the events of 1/6 and what led to them, far more are going to be swayed by how much they pay for gas or how difficult it is to get baby formula.