2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

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RoseMorninStar
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by RoseMorninStar »

I honestly don't know but I'd better start paying attention. I'll ask a friend of mine who is better at keeping up with local politics. I was greatly disappointed when Russ Feingold didn't win the last time around. I live in a very (very) right-wing area, so I don't get the best feel for the state as a whole. Glen Grothman (ugh) can also go. Tammy Baldwin can stay. :)
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RoseMorninStar
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by RoseMorninStar »

Voronwë the Faithful wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:56 am Rose, who would you say is the best potential Democratic candidate. Looking from the outside, I would say Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who is a declared candidate, but I don't know how popular he is or whether he has any potential baggage.
I dunno, I think general disgust/discouragement of politics in general is running high. Those that seem motivated are of the conspiracy theory variety. I'll let you know if I hear anything more as things heat up. I would imagine Ron Johnson was involved in Jan.6th.. I'm not sure if that will change minds for ill or nil.
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N.E. Brigand
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

North Carolina generally votes Republican, but recently not by much. Here are the past six presidential election results in that state:

2000 -- 43.2% Gore vs. 56.0% Bush
2004 -- 43.6% Kerry vs. 56.0% Bush
2008 -- 49.7% Obama vs. 49.4% McCain
2012 -- 49.4% Obama vs. 50.4% Romney
2016 -- 46.2% Clinton vs. 49.8% Trump
2020 -- 48.6% Biden vs. 49.9% Trump

Today the North Carolina Supreme Court upheld the gerrymandered redistricting plan that would give Republicans 70-80% of the state's Congressional seats.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

This is for 2024 not 2022: the Republican National Committee has informed the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates that the RNC next month will be making a rule change to require Republican presidential candidates NOT to participate in the CPD's debates.

However, it's possible that the RNC will back down if the CPD agrees to certain changes. The only specific demand I've heard about is a requirement that the first debate happen before early voting starts. That doesn't sound too unreasonable to me, although the timing could be tight. The Republican convention in 2020 ended on Aug. 27 and the first debate was Sep. 29. The earliest date for absentee voting was Sep. 4 in North Carolina. Was that due to the pandemic, or does N.C. normally allow voters to start two months before the election?

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times suggests that the reason the RNC is doing this is that Donald Trump is expected to be a candidate and he's told the RNC that won't participate in any debates, so they're looking for a way to make that technically the fault of the CPD.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

Apparently Senator Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona, has told confidants that she plans to run for President in 2024. It's not clear whether she'd challenge Joe Biden in the Democratic primary or would run as an Independent or both. According to that report, she is said to have told friends that she believes Republicans would vote for her over Donald Trump. However, the report seems to be based on just one source.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

The U.S. House is set to gain a member now that the seat representing Florida's 20th Congressional district, which had been vacant since the death last April of Rep. Alcee Hastings, was won in a special election on Tuesday by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Democrat who won 79% of the vote.

Her Republican opponent, Jason Mariner, got 19% of the vote.

He has yet to concede defeat.
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Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

N.E. Brigand wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:52 pm Apparently Senator Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona, has told confidants that she plans to run for President in 2024. It's not clear whether she'd challenge Joe Biden in the Democratic primary or would run as an Independent or both. According to that report, she is said to have told friends that she believes Republicans would vote for her over Donald Trump. However, the report seems to be based on just one source.
Unless and until that gets reported by a reliable source, I will consider it to be nonsense. A tweet by Amy Siskind is not, in my opinion, a reliable source. Of course your mileage may vary, and of course I may well be wrong about that.

However, I think it is far more likely that Sinema will be out of office and a pariah then that she ever makes any kind of serious run for the presidency. If there is any truth to this report, it might be a reflection of the fact that she doesn't have a chance in hell of winning reelection to her Senate seat in 2024 and so she might as well try to do something else.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

Fair about Siskind. I hesitated on citing it, but I saw that Josh Marshall, who edits Talking Points Memo, said that it broadly comported with his understanding of Sen. Sinema's position.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

N.E. Brigand wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:13 am North Carolina generally votes Republican, but recently not by much. Here are the past six presidential election results in that state:

2000 -- 43.2% Gore vs. 56.0% Bush
2004 -- 43.6% Kerry vs. 56.0% Bush
2008 -- 49.7% Obama vs. 49.4% McCain
2012 -- 49.4% Obama vs. 50.4% Romney
2016 -- 46.2% Clinton vs. 49.8% Trump
2020 -- 48.6% Biden vs. 49.9% Trump

Today the North Carolina Supreme Court upheld the gerrymandered redistricting plan that would give Republicans 70-80% of the state's Congressional seats.
However, in your home state:

Ohio's high court overturns new congressional map saying it 'unduly favors' Republicans

Note that the Republican Chief Justice was the deciding vote in the case.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by N.E. Brigand »

Indeed! Although I''m a little disappointed that it was a 4-3 decision rather than a 7-0 decision, since, as that article notes, Ohio voters passed an amendment to the state constitution in 2018 requiring something more fair than what was in place before. Right now, Ohio has 16 Congressional seats, 12 of which (75%) are held by Republicans -- despite Republicans winning about 55% of the statewide vote. With population shifts taking Ohio down to 15 seats, the redistricting plan that was just tossed by the Ohio Supreme Court would have resulted in as many as 13 seats, or 87%, being held by Republicans. It's expected that the maps redrawn following this decision will favor Republicans by either 9-6 (60%) or 10-5 (67%). Still not fair. But fairer.
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Re: 2022 U.S. Congressional (and Other) Elections

Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

GOP Rep. John Katko of upstate New York has announced that he is not running for reelection. Katko was a particular target of Trump and his allies since he not only voted to impeach Trump but also voted for the "bipartisan" infrastructure bill that was a policy priority of Trump's while he was in office, but is revised by him and his allies as a victory for Biden. New York's redistricting is not yet completed, but this represents a potential pickup for the Democrats since his district had normally tended blue, so much so that Kevin McCarthy discouraged Trump from pushing a primary challenge to Katko. Of course, one seat probably isn't going to make much difference as most likely the GOP will flip the House by a lot more than that, but who knows?
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