2016 United States Election
Re: 2016 United States Election
I would rather vote for Kasich. So if the pundits are saying that he is likely to do well (i.e., better than Cruz), I'll give my vote to him for the primaries. I just want whoever is most likely to defeat Trump.
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2016 United States Election
Ditto what V and Ax said. I don't know how yesterday may have changed things for Ohio, but last I heard, Kasich actually had a good chance of winning there.
It is pretty unlikely at this point that any non-Trump candidate will win a majority of delegates, so the most plausible way to stop him is for each state to vote for its strongest non-Trump option so he can't reach a majority either, and then hope the convention picks someone else.
Ohio is especially important to this strategy since the GOP side is winner-take-all. i.e. if Kasich beats Trump, no matter how small the margin, Trump gets nothing from it.
It is pretty unlikely at this point that any non-Trump candidate will win a majority of delegates, so the most plausible way to stop him is for each state to vote for its strongest non-Trump option so he can't reach a majority either, and then hope the convention picks someone else.
Ohio is especially important to this strategy since the GOP side is winner-take-all. i.e. if Kasich beats Trump, no matter how small the margin, Trump gets nothing from it.
Re: 2016 United States Election
All right, I'll keep my ears open between now and then to decide between Cruz and Kasich. (I am not sure who is scarier as the nominee, though—Cruz or Trump!)
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2016 United States Election
Here's the thing to watch:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... epublican/
But I now need to communicate that with the caveat that it had Clinton 99% favored to win Michigan (the GOP side was pretty accurate, though).
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... epublican/
But I now need to communicate that with the caveat that it had Clinton 99% favored to win Michigan (the GOP side was pretty accurate, though).
- JewelSong
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Re: 2016 United States Election
I think Cruz is absolutely terrifying.Lalaith wrote: (I am not sure who is scarier as the nominee, though—Cruz or Trump!)
I just posted this on my Facebook page - it pretty much sums up why.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/t ... val-office
"Live! Live! Live! Life is a banquet, and most poor suckers are starving to death!" - Auntie Mame
- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2016 United States Election
Despite the hiccup with the Michigan Democratic primary, I am 100% sure that the only person that has a chance to beat Trump in Ohio is Kasich. I would add that if he doesn't, Trump will almost definitely be the nominee, because I don't think that Rubio has much of a chance to beat him in Florida at this point. If Trump wins both large winner take all contests next Tuesday he will be close to unbeatable.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
- Dave_LF
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Re: 2016 United States Election
But no pressure
Re: 2016 United States Election
Thanks for posting that, Jewel. It's what I've been saying all along. I would urge people to especially consider the lies that the article gives as examples. Cruz is a very different kind of liar than Trump. Trump's lies mostly have to do with presenting himself in a better light, but Cruz's lies are cunning and purposeful. He lies with deliberate intent. He would be a terrible person to have holding the reins of power. Trump would be far more likely to surround himself with an eclectic bunch of advisors who would present him with a range of ideas and options. Cruz would be relentlessly focused on advancing his radical agenda, which he believes in with religious fervor.
Avatar photo by Richard Lykes, used with permission.
- Primula Baggins
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Re: 2016 United States Election
There are some reasons to believe that the Democrats have a fair chance of winning the Senate back if either Trump or Cruz is the nominee. I read this in the context of the GOP senators blocking an Obama Supreme Court nominee. If he does name someone that at least some Republicans have reason to support, the block may not continue if it does indeed seem possible that November will bring not just a Democratic president but a Democratic Senate—meaning that a much less palatable nominee might make it through next year.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
- superwizard
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Re: 2016 United States Election
I totally feel you there. In fact I corrected a friend early on in the night when the results showed Sanders was leading by arguing favorable districts to Clinton hadn't been counted yet (they hadn't) and that she was going to win by several percentage points (she didn't). I'm a numbers guy and I like seeing the numbers at least come close. I really admire what 538 (and others) do with their attempts to make sense of the flood of numbers and how to present them as accurately and honestly as possible (something that campaigns really do not do in the slightest).Dave_LF wrote: Yes, you're right of course. It was an intemperate remark, made from an intemperate state of mind. It's distressing to see the Methodology fail so badly on my own territory, though. And personally embarrassing as well--I had a number of people ask me yesterday who I thought would win.
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Re: 2016 United States Election
The beat rolls on.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tru ... 5c9180dd44
Probably the most shocking thing is the police tackling the man who punched, rather than the man who sucker punched him.
And not to be outdone, Trump's campaign manager gets in on the act.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tru ... 5c9180dd44
Probably the most shocking thing is the police tackling the man who punched, rather than the man who sucker punched him.
And not to be outdone, Trump's campaign manager gets in on the act.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
- superwizard
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Re: 2016 United States Election
I also just have to add this:
http://nyti.ms/1LVxXNhAsked about his recent comments that “Islam hates us,” and if he really meant all Muslims, Mr. Trump doubled down: “ I mean a lot of them, I mean a lot of them,” he said. “There’s tremendous hatred, and I will stick with exactly what I said.” He is not willing to be politically correct, he said.
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Re: 2016 United States Election
Thanks, S'wiz. That was the other one that I wanted to post. Words fail. Again.
I can't subscribe to the notion that Cruz is "more dangerous" than Trump.
I can't subscribe to the notion that Cruz is "more dangerous" than Trump.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2016 United States Election
And there is this one.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... z42ZLZtiKpOn MSNBC on Wednesday, journalist Bob Woodward asked Trump, “Would you be willing to go to war to make sure we get the money to pay for this wall?”
“Trust me, Bob, when I rejuvenate our military, Mexico’s not going to be playing with us with war, that I can tell you. Mexico isn't playing with us with war,” Trump responded Wednesday.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
- Primula Baggins
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Re: 2016 United States Election
Chilling. That's the only word for it.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
Re: 2016 United States Election
I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.
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"What a place! What a situation! What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
Terry Pratchett, Going Postal
Terry Pratchett, Going Postal
Re: 2016 United States Election
I wanna love somebody but I don't know how
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
-The Decemberists
I wanna throw my body in the river and drown
-The Decemberists
Re: 2016 United States Election
Yeah, that's where I found it.
"What a place! What a situation! What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
Terry Pratchett, Going Postal
Terry Pratchett, Going Postal
Re: 2016 United States Election
"He even had to ask Eru to intervene to come back as Gandalf the White. Such a Loser. Although this shows how being white is superior to everyone. He won as Gandalf the White. Whites win!"Frelga wrote:I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.
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Please bear with my typos & grammar mistakes. Sent from my iPhone - Palantirs make mistakes too.
'You just said "your getting shorter": you've obviously been drinking too much ent-draught and not enough Prim's.' - Jude
Re: 2016 United States Election
And look how it turned out for Saruman after he changed from white to many colors (colours)! Clearly white is superior!Inanna wrote:"He even had to ask Eru to intervene to come back as Gandalf the White. Such a Loser. Although this shows how being white is superior to everyone. He won as Gandalf the White. Whites win!"Frelga wrote:I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.
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Please bear with my typos & grammar mistakes. Sent from my iPhone - Palantirs make mistakes too.