The 2008 Presidential Campaign: What Happened and Why?

Discussions of and about the historic 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
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Túrin Turambar
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Post by Túrin Turambar »

yovargas wrote:The Fake Republicans is kinda how I think about 'em. Cuz, you know, real Republicans were supposed to favor smaller government. And I may be wrong, but I don't think the older Republicans (pre-Reagan?) were so pro-war or so dominated by the religious conservatives. But what do I know.
Pre 1960s, almost everyone was a social conservative of some sort – there was no organised socially-progressive movement centred around issues like gay marriage, minority rights and peace like we have today, and therefore no real religious right (which is essentially an answer to that movement). The division between the parties was more based on economics and geography.

The progressive movement of the early 20th century, which is associated with Presidents like Theodore Roosevelt and causes like trust-busting and women’s rights, had adherents in both major parties (and sparked several minor parties).

As to River’s point, the term ‘liberal’ was only given its current meaning in North American politics by FDR (who needed a word to describe his set of policies before labels like ‘communist’ and ‘fascist’ which his opponents were applying to them started to stick). Prior to that, it seems to me to mean something along the lines of ‘moderate’ (the liberal Republicans were what the opponents of radical Republicans called themselves during reconstruction, for example).
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Post by halplm »

vison wrote:George Bush is a reactionary. halplm is free to define himself as he likes, but in my books he is also a reactionary. A reactionary can appear to be some sort of conservative (hence, "neo-con") but reactionaries are far from being true conservatives.

halplm, I do not wish to engage you in debate on this matter, I am merely expressing an opinion prompted by your question.
Wow, reactionary = fascist = Nazi... guess that explains your reactions to me most of the time. Good to know.

Of course, Obama feels we're approaching Nazism here in the good ol' USA, at least he did in 2001, so I guess you're in good company.

I freely offer you the option of never speaking to me again, as you have no understanding whatsoever of my point of view.
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Post by halplm »

River wrote:Well, a long time ago the Republicans were the liberals. I'm not sure when it flipped.

How far back to do you go when referring to real this or real that in the context of a political party?
And the Democrats were the racist bigots, bot don't talk about that, we don't like to look at real history around here.
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Post by River »

halplm wrote: Wow, reactionary = fascist = Nazi... guess that explains your reactions to me most of the time. Good to know.
How, from vison's post, did you draw that connection?

Reactionary
Fascist

The two do not equate. Not unless you're advocating a return to the old days of fascism, but you're not and you couldn't because the US, fortunately, has never had any old days of fascism.

Won't bother throwing in Nazis because national socialism is part of fascism.

As for your comments about Democrats, this is true, but my question was academic, not insulting, snide, or sarcastic and I'd appreciate it if you answered it in that light. How do you define a political party? By it's present or it's history? Especially parties like the US Democrats and US Republicans, which have flip-flopped and crossed over? Do you look at history? How much history? Or do you just look at the present and settle yourself into the camp that suits? I'm more inclined towards the latter because it's what the parties stand for right now that matters when you're making a decision right now.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

halplm wrote:
vison wrote:George Bush is a reactionary. halplm is free to define himself as he likes, but in my books he is also a reactionary. A reactionary can appear to be some sort of conservative (hence, "neo-con") but reactionaries are far from being true conservatives.

halplm, I do not wish to engage you in debate on this matter, I am merely expressing an opinion prompted by your question.
Wow, reactionary = fascist = Nazi... guess that explains your reactions to me most of the time. Good to know.
While I think that is a stretch, it is insulting enough to call someone a "reactionary". And before you say that you were just responding to halplm's question, vison, remember that that question was in response to your completely unsolicited statement that halplm was "not a conservative". We can avoid this kind of sniping by sticking to discussing the issues, rather than each other.
Of course, Obama feels we're approaching Nazism here in the good ol' USA, at least he did in 2001, so I guess you're in good company.
This kind of out of control, insulting mischaracterization of the candidates is equally out of line, halplm. You are welcome to make statements like this - some place else. But they are not acceptable here.
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Post by Padme »

I'm at the same point as Wyatt Cenac.
From the ashes, a fire shall be woken. A light from the shadow shall spring. Renewed shall be blade that was broken. The crownless again shall be king.

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Post by vison »

Here is something I have not seen mentioned elsewhere:
Vancouver Sun wrote: 28 Oct 2008 Times Colonist: Federal agents in Tennessee have arrested two neo-Nazi skinheads who allegedly plotted to rob a gun store and kill 102 black people before trying to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

In court documents released yesterday, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives said the two men were targeting a mostly African-American high school, where they planned to shoot 88 “non-Caucasians” and decapitate another 14.

“They wanted to go to a place where they could shoot as many non-Caucasians as they could,” a federal official told Reuters. “They also had a plot to assassinate Senator Obama.”

Daniel Cowart, 20, and Paul Schlesselman 18, of West Helena, are being held without bond. Authorities say they seized a sawed-off shotgun, three pistols and a rifle from the two men, and that they had planned to break into a gun shop and steal more.
They have been charged with threatening a candidate for president, possessing an unregistered firearm and conspiring to steal weapons from a licensed gun dealer, according to reports.

The two men told authorities they planned to wear white tuxedos and top hats while carrying out the assassination, according to court papers.

Prosecutors said in court papers that the two met over the Internet through a mutual friend last month and expressed “very strong beliefs” in “white power” and the “skinhead” philosophy.

The two talked of killing 88 black people and voiced a desire to decapitate 14, an ATF agent said.

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Post by Dave_LF »

This morning's polls (Rasmussen and Research 2000) again show Obama steady with McCain gaining a bit. The remaining undecideds are presumably breaking strongly in his favor. On the state level, unless a bandwagonning effect moves people from McCain to Obama in the last couple of days or Republican turnout is depressed, I'd say this trend is likely to preclude an Obama win in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, or Florida and turn Ohio into the swingingest state. I don't have evidence that the undecideds are equally spread across the geography, though, so that could be way off.
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Post by Primula Baggins »

Obama's significantly ahead in early voting in places that report it, and Democratic and black turnout is ahead of 2004 in some places that don't. So maybe some undecideds who broke for Obama have already voted?

Interesting article on 538 about Oregon: the ballot return rate is down overall, but it's down significantly more the redder the county is.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

I moved a post from this thread to Nan Elmoth.
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Post by Dave_LF »

Primula Baggins wrote:Obama's significantly ahead in early voting in places that report it, and Democratic and black turnout is ahead of 2004 in some places that don't. So maybe some undecideds who broke for Obama have already voted?
Yes, that's certainly true. I just meant that people who claimed to still be undecided 3 or 4 days ago seem to be breaking in favor of McCain. There aren't enough of these people to put him over the top even if they all broke for him, but it could allow him to edge Obama out in some of the closer states like Missouri that are pretty good microcosms of the country as a whole.

Edit: Diageo and Battleground are both out now, and both of them again show the numbers to be absolutely flat. It seems several pollsters are consistently detecting motion from undecided to McCain, but several others are consistently detecting no motion at all. Puzzling.
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Post by Primula Baggins »

As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. There's still no reason to think the race is going to flip; even where McCain moves up one or two points, Obama holds steady over 50%. Tightening was to be expected.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

I don't want Missouri to vote for McCain! :bawl:
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

The polls are constantly at odds with each other. To the extent that they are consistent with each other, it does look good for Obama. For McCain to win, there would need to be a virtual repeat of what happened in the New Hampshire Democratic primary in at least a half dozen states. Not likely, but not impossible.
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Post by Dave_LF »

I've actually been impressed by how well the national polls have agreed this year, and how internally stable each has been from day to day. There is disagreement based on differing likely voter models, but all of them have shown Obama consistently ahead for months.

I don't think it should be any surprise if people left undecided at this point ultimately make the "traditional" choice or (perhaps most likely) don't vote at all. What I don't see any evidence of is people changing from Obama to McCain, which would have to happen in a big way if McCain was going to win.
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Post by Primula Baggins »

State polls are more reassuring than the national tracking polls: Obama's got solid leads in most of the "toss-up" states, and continues to be up by double digits in Pennsylvania, on which McCain for some reason has pinned his hopes.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Post by Padme »

Vison,

I thought I posted the story somewhere, I thought it was here. Maybe not. :scratch:
From the ashes, a fire shall be woken. A light from the shadow shall spring. Renewed shall be blade that was broken. The crownless again shall be king.

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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Maria wrote:I don't want Missouri to vote for McCain! :bawl:
Missouri has been the bellweather state for a long time. It would be quite unusual for Obama to win the election without winning Missouri. Yet that is looking pretty likely right now.

It would be pretty extraordinary if Obama lost Missouri, Florida and Ohio (although the latter seems less likely at this point), and still won the election.

Edited to fix italics.
Last edited by Voronwë the Faithful on Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Dave_LF »

Primula Baggins wrote:State polls are more reassuring than the national tracking polls: Obama's got solid leads in most of the "toss-up" states, and continues to be up by double digits in Pennsylvania, on which McCain for some reason has pinned his hopes.
Absolutely. I don't want to give the impression that I'm worried; Obama's position is very strong 6 days out.
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Post by Cenedril_Gildinaur »

Then this can finally be over and we can crown our new king.

And the Republicans will discover how much they don't like having a Democrat weild over them the power they put into the Unitary Executive. I'd find it refreshingly ironic if it weren't for the fact that he will also have that power over those of us who didn't support the Republicans.
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