2016 United States Election

[Lalaith]

I would rather vote for Kasich. So if the pundits are saying that he is likely to do well (i.e., better than Cruz), I'll give my vote to him for the primaries. I just want whoever is most likely to defeat Trump.

[Dave_LF]

Ditto what V and Ax said. I don't know how yesterday may have changed things for Ohio, but last I heard, Kasich actually had a good chance of winning there.

It is pretty unlikely at this point that any non-Trump candidate will win a majority of delegates, so the most plausible way to stop him is for each state to vote for its strongest non-Trump option so he can't reach a majority either, and then hope the convention picks someone else.

Ohio is especially important to this strategy since the GOP side is winner-take-all. i.e. if Kasich beats Trump, no matter how small the margin, Trump gets nothing from it.

[Lalaith]

All right, I'll keep my ears open between now and then to decide between Cruz and Kasich. (I am not sure who is scarier as the nominee, though—Cruz or Trump!)

[Dave_LF]

Here's the thing to watch:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... epublican/

But I now need to communicate that with the caveat that it had Clinton 99% favored to win Michigan (the GOP side was pretty accurate, though).

[JewelSong]

(I am not sure who is scarier as the nominee, though—Cruz or Trump!)

I think Cruz is absolutely terrifying.

I just posted this on my Facebook page - it pretty much sums up why.
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/t ... val-office

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Despite the hiccup with the Michigan Democratic primary, I am 100% sure that the only person that has a chance to beat Trump in Ohio is Kasich. I would add that if he doesn't, Trump will almost definitely be the nominee, because I don't think that Rubio has much of a chance to beat him in Florida at this point. If Trump wins both large winner take all contests next Tuesday he will be close to unbeatable.

[Dave_LF]

But no pressure

[Cerin]

Thanks for posting that, Jewel. It's what I've been saying all along. I would urge people to especially consider the lies that the article gives as examples. Cruz is a very different kind of liar than Trump. Trump's lies mostly have to do with presenting himself in a better light, but Cruz's lies are cunning and purposeful. He lies with deliberate intent. He would be a terrible person to have holding the reins of power. Trump would be far more likely to surround himself with an eclectic bunch of advisors who would present him with a range of ideas and options. Cruz would be relentlessly focused on advancing his radical agenda, which he believes in with religious fervor.

[Primula Baggins]

There are some reasons to believe that the Democrats have a fair chance of winning the Senate back if either Trump or Cruz is the nominee. I read this in the context of the GOP senators blocking an Obama Supreme Court nominee. If he does name someone that at least some Republicans have reason to support, the block may not continue if it does indeed seem possible that November will bring not just a Democratic president but a Democratic Senate—meaning that a much less palatable nominee might make it through next year.

[superwizard]

Yes, you're right of course. It was an intemperate remark, made from an intemperate state of mind. It's distressing to see the Methodology fail so badly on my own territory, though. And personally embarrassing as well--I had a number of people ask me yesterday who I thought would win.

I totally feel you there. In fact I corrected a friend early on in the night when the results showed Sanders was leading by arguing favorable districts to Clinton hadn't been counted yet (they hadn't) and that she was going to win by several percentage points (she didn't). I'm a numbers guy and I like seeing the numbers at least come close. I really admire what 538 (and others) do with their attempts to make sense of the flood of numbers and how to present them as accurately and honestly as possible (something that campaigns really do not do in the slightest).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The beat rolls on.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tru ... 5c9180dd44

Probably the most shocking thing is the police tackling the man who punched, rather than the man who sucker punched him.

And not to be outdone, Trump's campaign manager gets in on the act.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html

[superwizard]

I also just have to add this:

Asked about his recent comments that “Islam hates us,” and if he really meant all Muslims, Mr. Trump doubled down: “ I mean a lot of them, I mean a lot of them,” he said. “There’s tremendous hatred, and I will stick with exactly what I said.” He is not willing to be politically correct, he said.

http://nyti.ms/1LVxXNh

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks, S'wiz. That was the other one that I wanted to post. Words fail. Again.

I can't subscribe to the notion that Cruz is "more dangerous" than Trump.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And there is this one.

On MSNBC on Wednesday, journalist Bob Woodward asked Trump, “Would you be willing to go to war to make sure we get the money to pay for this wall?”

“Trust me, Bob, when I rejuvenate our military, Mexico’s not going to be playing with us with war, that I can tell you. Mexico isn't playing with us with war,” Trump responded Wednesday.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... z42ZLZtiKp

[Primula Baggins]

Chilling. That's the only word for it.

[Frelga]

I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.

[yovargas]

Ha! Yes, that one's fake. It's from this:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/expresident/tru ... .ynyQq5zBL

[Frelga]

Yeah, that's where I found it.

[Inanna]

I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.

"He even had to ask Eru to intervene to come back as Gandalf the White. Such a Loser. Although this shows how being white is superior to everyone. He won as Gandalf the White. Whites win!"


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Please bear with my typos & grammar mistakes. Sent from my iPhone - Palantirs make mistakes too.

[CosmicBob]

I'm pretty sure this is fake, but at this point, I can't be quite sure about anything.

"He even had to ask Eru to intervene to come back as Gandalf the White. Such a Loser. Although this shows how being white is superior to everyone. He won as Gandalf the White. Whites win!"


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Please bear with my typos & grammar mistakes. Sent from my iPhone - Palantirs make mistakes too.

And look how it turned out for Saruman after he changed from white to many colors (colours)! Clearly white is superior!