2016 United States Election

[Frelga]

My parents like Trump.

I don't get it.

[Dave_LF]

When I saw this was almost 22 minutes long, I thought there was no way I would watch the whole thing, but I did, and it was well worth the time.

See; it's so easy to do that, and there's so much more. The Democrats presumably have been holding off in order to give the GOP enough rope to hang itself, but it's really a mystery to me why Rubio, Cruz, Bush, and friends haven't been pointing this stuff out.

[superwizard]

Dave it sounds like the Clinton campaign is definitely getting ready for an all out campaign blitz against him if he does end up as the nominee: http://nyti.ms/1RC2HSy. The idea of President Obama himself going around and mobilizing against him sounds especially powerful.

While there have been several theories on why the republicans were unable or unwilling to really go after Trump, I think a large part of it was due to infighting and not understanding how broad his appeal is. There were many rather qualified republicans who ran this year (5 senators, 9 governors) and they ended up too distracted to really go after Trump. They all likely figured he was going to self implode and honestly who didn't? He said some pretty outrageous things and everyone figured they would eventually haunt him come election season...

[Dave_LF]

Could be. And there's also a certain reluctance to take the gloves off when you're going against one of your own people. Not that I would expect her to for a second, but if the article's sources are good, it confirms that Clinton isn't going to make the same mistakes.

[Dave_LF]

There's been a real blitz of anti-Trump media over the last two days from numerous quarters. I don't know who (if anyone) is coordinating it, but it will be interesting to see if it has any effect on tonight's results.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Probably it will increase his totals.

[superwizard]

I have seen (and contributed) to the blitz myself. I think a lot of it is by Trump's own design and I think he knows what he is doing. He is the one who refused to denounce Duke. He is the one who asked a group of black students to leave his rally. He knows more than anyone else how to motivate certain parts of his base...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

He is the one who refused to denounce Duke. He is the one who asked a group of black students to leave his rally.

And then turned around and denied that he did either, blaming a "very bad earpiece" for the "miscommunication" about Duke (which makes absolutely no sense if you actually listen to the exchange), and denying that he asked to have the black students to leave the rally (which is simply a flat out lie).

He has made an artform out of having his cake and eating it too.

[Primula Baggins]

And he didn't "ask"; they were made to leave.

[Cerin]

I think Trump's behavior is more a manifestation of his pathology, which is conviction that comes from within, rather than a conscious manipulation, which would be more of a mind game. If it were the latter, then exposure of that behavior, such as in that video Voronwë shared, would be an effective weapon. But I think Trump's pathology makes him impervious to the truth.

[Dave_LF]

Trump is basically a third-party candidate running as a Republican. If he is nominated, I expect he will draw enthusiastic votes from certain fringe elements in both parties (more from the GOP), but a large fraction of the Republican party will be very, very unhappy at the prospect of supporting him. The evangelical right in particular has really opened up on him in the last few days*. Could we see Trump run as the Republican candidate and a more traditional Republican run as an independent? It's probably not out of the question.

*This is the sort of stuff I expected to see months ago, when it almost certainly would have stopped him in his tracks. Is it too late now? Who knows.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And he didn't "ask"; they were made to leave.

By "ask" I meant that he asked the secret service (or alternatively, local law enforcement, or alternatively his own staff; there are varying accounts) to remove the students, not that he asked them to leave. The one thing that no one denies is that they were forcefully made to leave.

[Dave_LF]

Trump is going to have wins tonight, but if the early results mean anything, it's not going to be the blowout some were expecting. Given that the winds seem to be turning against him, I think predictwise's 83% is way, way too high.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Looks to me like he has having a very good night indeed. Blowout wins in AL, GA, MA, and TN, and comfortable leads in OK, VA, and VT, with AK, AR, MN and TX to come. He may well win all of them other than Texas, and Rubio may come out of it still having not won any state.

[Dave_LF]

He (Rubio) was looking good in Virginia early, but he's losing his chance there as time goes on. It is indeed hard to imagine how a candidate who gets to the end of Super Tuesday without carrying a single state could win the nomination.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Virginia has now been called for Trump. However, Cruz has pulled ahead in OK. If Cruz wins there and in Texas (which I see has now already been called) and Trump wins everywhere else, I think Cruz would have a credible argument that it should be a two-man race, since they would be only two to have won any states.

Sanders has won Vermont and is fairly close in MA, but Clinton has won everyone else. [ETA: I see that Sanders is leading in OK).

[Dave_LF]

There was a chance that Trump was going to going to win them all tonight and clinch the nomination. That clearly isn't going to happen. There was also a chance Cruz would perform so badly that he'd be compelled to drop out. That, also, clearly isn't happening. Looks like the takeaway is going to be the same thing again--Trump has the edge, but the contest will go on.

[yovargas]

If everyone but Cruz drops out, it won't quite be the same thing again. Maybe the many people who really, really hate Trump can finally coalesce behind an alternative.

[Dave_LF]

Yup. And that would illustrate one of the pathologies of our primary system, especially if Trump still managed to win due to the lead he built up before people started dropping out.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

If everyone but Cruz drops out, it won't quite be the same thing again. Maybe the many people who really, really hate Trump can finally coalesce behind an alternative.

Except that many of the people who really, really hate Trump also hate Cruz. Including within the GOP. Trump actually has more Senators endorsing him than Cruz does (unless you count Cruz endorsing himself, in which case it would be tied, one to one).