The 2012 US Election

[River]

The current popular vote tally is 50.4% for Obama and 48.1% for Romney with the difference split between a bunch of other people. So I'd be very careful about even attempting to make a statement about the majority.

I don't think any reasonable person held Bush responsible for the hurricanes happening. The bungled federal response, sure. Buck stops in the Oval Office. But acts of nature happen and all we humans can do is respond.

[The Watcher]

And if Obama tries to compromise and take the other side's views into account (because he has to, usually, but it's still nice) he's seen as weak.

Poor guy, really. I'm sure there are days he wonders why the heck he ever wanted the job.

There you have hit the nail on the head. Both parties in Congress need to stop with the chest beating and rock throwing and settle down and actually accomplish some things that have now reached the critical stage.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Romney concedes gracefully.

And this is perhaps the most precious and amazing thing about tonight - that no matter who won, there were not going to be tanks in the streets come morning.

I think only someone who has spent time in a place where that isn't true can fully appreciate how precious it is.

[yovargas]

I suppose it can be understandable if one only thinks about how a person's favourite losing is a tough thing.. but I can be honest and say I've not been able to understand how people can vote against the civil rights of women, gays and minorities (amongst other things, but those being the absolute serious... very much like people voting against women's suffrage, minorities having the right to vote, mixed-raced marriages.)

Really? Seems pretty easy to me. It's simple - some things are more important than other. So, for example, while I very much want gay marriage federally legalized, it's easy for me to see that health care policy is more important than that. If one thinks the Health Care plan is dangerous for the entire country, one probably shouldn't vote for Obama just cuz he supports gay marriage. Especially since he isn't likely to try get a pro-gay marriage bill passed through anyway.

[Erunáme]

*deletes post*

edit: Meh.. this is why I shouldn't have ever said anything. I can't express my thoughts well.. they get taken the wrong way, or perhaps I am offensive and judgemental or whatever..

[Erunáme]

I think one would have to be in a coma not to be worried about the country. It's a big country. There's always something going wrong, or something that might go wrong, or a natural disaster lurking around the corner, or a long-term trend that's less than comforting and not likely to be addressed by anyone in office.

That last one has been troubling me for a bit, as some of my recent posts suggest. There's a chunk of the population for whom employment is going to get harder and harder, simply because the jobs they are capable of doing are becoming fewer and fewer. Traditionally there were sectors of the economy where you could be below average and survive--but they've been dwindling and will continue to do so, barring upheaval. Farming went first, followed by manufacturing, and now retail, which didn't create much wealth, but at least required bodies in stores. Now it doesn't.

That's another topic, I suppose--but it's one that the election didn't touch, likely because there's nothing to be done about it, politically. It will work its way out and we'll play catch up, as usual.

I completely agree with this, btw. There's still lots to worry about.

[Griffon64]

I think one would have to be in a coma not to be worried about the country. It's a big country. There's always something going wrong, or something that might go wrong, or a natural disaster lurking around the corner, or a long-term trend that's less than comforting and not likely to be addressed by anyone in office.

That last one has been troubling me for a bit, as some of my recent posts suggest. There's a chunk of the population for whom employment is going to get harder and harder, simply because the jobs they are capable of doing are becoming fewer and fewer. Traditionally there were sectors of the economy where you could be below average and survive--but they've been dwindling and will continue to do so, barring upheaval. Farming went first, followed by manufacturing, and now retail, which didn't create much wealth, but at least required bodies in stores. Now it doesn't.

That's another topic, I suppose--but it's one that the election didn't touch, likely because there's nothing to be done about it, politically. It will work its way out and we'll play catch up, as usual.

I agree with it, too. I think about it often, and I don't think that the current paradigm has answers for it. It is hard, or impossible even, to predict at this point what the future of this issue will be.

[N.E. Brigand]

For example, I am a conservative who is pro gay marriage. And anti death penalty. And pro and anti lots of things that may not fit the profile assigned to me.

I wasn't lumping all republicans or conservatives in together. I was attempting to pinpoint certain issues like civil rights. It's fully possible for someone to be pro-gay marriage but be conservative in other things. I know this.

In fact, it has been argued that supporting gay marriage is a conservative position. (For instance, Steve Schmidt, who was John McCain's campaign manager in 2008, said this just last night.)

[Maria]

Why in the world would anyone base their stockpiled food and ammo on who is president????

Both Todd Akin (he of the "legitimate rape" comment) and Richard Mourdock ("God intended pregnancies caused by rape") have lost, to Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly, respectively. Both of those seats were originally considered easy wins for the GOP.

Women have a way of shutting that whole thing down, hm?

I just had to say, Eruname, that your post made me laugh out loud.

[Frelga]

I had meant to say last nite, in response that Eru's comment, that that response sounded very similar to the comments I heard from the left in 04.

The "left" were promising to leave for Canada or Europe, although very few did that I know. I honestly can't imagine where the "right" would (say they would) go that is more conservative than the U.S.

Edited for technical problems

[N.E. Brigand]

The current popular vote tally is 50.4% for Obama and 48.1% for Romney with the difference split between a bunch of other people. So I'd be very careful about even attempting to make a statement about the majority.

'Tis often so. Just for comparison over my lifetime, showing any candidate who got at least 5%:

1972 - 60.7% Nixon, 37.5% McGovern
1976 - 50.1% Carter, 48.0% Ford
1980 - 50.7% Reagan, 41.0% Carter, 6.6% Anderson
1984 - 58.8% Reagan, 40.6% Mondale
1988 - 53.4% Bush, 45.7% Dukakis
1992 - 43.0% Clinton, 37.5% Bush, 18.9% Perot
1996 - 49.2% Clinton, 40.7% Dole, 8.4% Perot
2000 - 48.4% Gore, 47.9% Bush
2004 - 50.7% Bush, 48.3% Kerry
2008 - 52.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain

[The Watcher]

I had meant to say last nite, in response that Eru's comment, that that response sounded very similar to the comments I heard from the left in 04.

The "left" were promising to leave for Canada or Europe, although very few did that I know. I honestly can't imagine where the "right" would (say they would) go that is more conservative than the U.S.

I don't know, maybe that is why a great number of them ARE stating such short sighted predictions. They are insular, feeling threatened, and maybe coming to realize that it is 2012, not 1912. We are part of the world and we exist in that world, and we have no more entitlement than our brothers and sisters in different countries.

Put another way, faltering economies will eventually sort themselves out, and progress will dictate changes in those economies. The welfare of all peoples of the world and having a planet that can continue to nurture us are so much more important to me - that is the legacy that I want to see for my children.

[N.E. Brigand]

eta - wait...I just found out Nate Silver is gay. Is this generally known info?? Cuz I gotta at gay geekiness!

It was at least assumed by some. From an article at one conservative site before the election:

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

Apparently, Nate Silver has his own way of “skewing” the polls. He appears to look at the polls available and decide which ones to put more “weighting” on in compiling his own average, as opposed to the Real Clear Politics average, and then uses the average he calculates to determine that percentages a candidate has of winning that state. He labels some polling firms as favoring Republicans, even if they over sample Democrats in their surveys, apparently because he doesn't agree with their results. In the end the polls are gerrymandering into averages that seem to suit his agenda to make the liberal Democrats candidates apparently strong than they are.

[N.E. Brigand]

Put another way, faltering economies will eventually sort themselves out.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Or at least, failing the appropriate response, the downturn can be as miserable and long-lasting as the Great Depression before getting sorted out.

[Dave_LF]

I love how he puts the word "weighting" in quotes. The guy probably doesn't know a thing about statistics, yet he feels free to dismiss the work of professionals out of hand. This is the sort of attitude I'm so happy to see proved publicly and indisputably wrong.

[Frelga]

Romney concedes gracefully.

And this is perhaps the most precious and amazing thing about tonight - that no matter who won, there were not going to be tanks in the streets come morning.

I think only someone who has spent time in a place where that isn't true can fully appreciate how precious it is.

Poster of the putsch of August 1991 [Public domain undefined CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], by GK87 (own work)

I wasn't there, I was in Ukraine at the time, but when my husband's friends talked about taking to the woods with weapons, they weren't exactly joking. It would have been life and death for some of us had the coup won.

Just... a bit of perspective, you know.

[anthriel]

The current popular vote tally is 50.4% for Obama and 48.1% for Romney with the difference split between a bunch of other people. So I'd be very careful about even attempting to make a statement about the majority.

If you are referring to me here (and you probably are) I did say (I think!!) that maybe the popular vote favored Romney. I apologize if it looked like I was sure about this, or trying to make a statement; I really did mean “maybe”. I think even if the popular vote goes to Obama, even if it’s only slightly less than 50% of the people voted for Romney, that is a LOT of people, they still have a right to feel unhappy today. That was my point.

I don't think any reasonable person held Bush responsible for the hurricanes happening. The bungled federal response, sure. Buck stops in the Oval Office. But acts of nature happen and all we humans can do is respond.

Well I sure heard/read a lot about that at the time. No, it wasn't reasonable. It was kind of funny, actually. But is was said, over and over, at the time. When I said it here, it was supposed to be a joke.

That's why the "sad and disturbing"comment that Eru made was odd, to me. Lots of people, maybe even the majority in the country, are disappointed, today. Isn't that okay?

I hope you can see that I was referring to the extremist comments.

No, I didn’t see that you were specifically referring to extremists. You did mention ammo and stockpiling food, which I agree (and agreed) were weird things to write. (I still don’t get it, btw.) But you also mentioned people saying they were sick to their stomachs, and then said you were sad and disturbed. I think either side would have felt a little pukey if their guy had lost. Just seems kind of normal to me, not sad, nor disturbing. Even some of the over-the-top reactions (I can't live in a country with This Man as President!!) might be slightly understandable. People will calm down. After all, Alex Baldwin IS still here.

I don't think you will lose any friends here, in fact you might strengthen a few friendships.

I dunno. I'm sure it's made people defriend me on Facebook even though I try to be careful about posting too many political things. I just tend to "like" and comment on other stuff which of course anyone can see, but it's not in their face hopefully. But they weren't real friends anyway, merely acquaintances.

Well, I friended you during the fray of the election, and as far as I know, we are still friends on FB. No worries here!

For example, I am a conservative who is pro gay marriage. And anti death penalty. And pro and anti lots of things that may not fit the profle assigned to me.

But this is the thing that I've been wondering about. From your comments, I'm assuming you voted for Romney.

I think you might be surprised who I voted for. But I was trying to specifically address your comments about people feeling sick to their stomachs over Obama’s win, and how you thought that was “sad and disturbing”. That’s a separate issue, I think, from WHY anyone voted the way they did. I think it is fair to assume that the losers are going to feel upset. It is understandable, to me, and that is the only point I was trying to make, there.

A Romney presidency would have been obviously anti-gay marriage. Is it that there are other things that you think more important? I'm not asking to judge or whatever, but out of a desire to truly understand as personally social issues are priority for me... but luckily I also think Obama's economic/healthcare/environment policies are a lot better as well. I'm fairly liberal about most things so perhaps the choices are easier for me. edit: you don't need to answer this. I'm sorry I brought it up. Resisting urge to delete all posts... [/edit]

Please don’t. I know I poked at you with this, and I am glad you are responding to me.

I am actually a social liberal, and a fiscal conservative. Makes it a bit difficult to know who best reflects my thoughts, actually.

I don't really agree with how you are portraying the belief system on the "other side", but I do know that no amount of posting what I think here is going to change anyone's perception on that. People see what they want to see, usually.

I wasn't lumping all republicans or conservatives in together. I was attempting to pinpoint certain issues like civil rights. It's fully possible for someone to be pro-gay marriage but be conservative in other things. I know this.

Yep. Sure is. The way you wrote it made it look (to me) like anyone who voted for Romney approved of all his positions. I know for a fact that isn’t true.

I just wanted to let you know that I think this statement is a bit condescending. Perhaps you didn't mean it that way, but that is the way it reads to me.

Huh? What?? I'm leaving out every other factor.. just stripping it down to the base "My guy lost/won" and the associated emotions with it. No matter who you are or what you believe, of course you'll be disappointed if the person you wanted to win didn't. I completely get that. I just went on later to express my lack of understanding of voting against people's civil rights which is actually another separate issue.

edit: Meh.. this is why I shouldn't have ever said anything. I can't express my thoughts well.. they get taken the wrong way, or perhaps I am offensive and judgemental or whatever..

I am glad you said what you did, and I am glad (although perhaps you are not!) that I had the gumption to tell you what I thought about your words. That’s not easy for me, as you know, especially here.

So it looks like you did not mean to be condescending, so COOL, glad I asked. (I still am so grateful to Frelga, so many years ago, helping me to understand I need to ASK. Frelga) It looked like you were saying that people were upset just ‘cause their guy lost, kind of like I get upset when the Gators lose or people get offended when their favorite dancer is voted off DWTS. These people who are upset are upset because they feel that the agenda of this president is not leading the country in the right direction. It’a bigger deal than “my guy lost”.

To be clear: I am not surprised by the election results, and not too worried about them, either. Just as you have a clearer view of how Socialists feel and work, I see the conservative side pretty clearly. Doesn’t mean I always vote conservative, btw. Yes, I am that confusing.

perhaps I am offensive and judgemental

I didn't say that, nor do I think that. I felt that particular sentence seemed condescending, and I'm glad you answered me on that.

I suppose it can be understandable if one only thinks about how a person's favourite losing is a tough thing.. but I can be honest and say I've not been able to understand how people can vote against the civil rights of women, gays and minorities (amongst other things, but those being the absolute serious... very much like people voting against women's suffrage, minorities having the right to vote, mixed-raced marriages.)

Really? Seems pretty easy to me. It's simple - some things are more important than other. So, for example, while I very much want gay marriage federally legalized, it's easy for me to see that health care policy is more important than that. If one thinks the Health Care plan is dangerous for the entire country, one probably shouldn't vote for Obama just cuz he supports gay marriage. Especially since he isn't likely to try get a pro-gay marriage bill passed through anyway.

Exactly.

[The Watcher]

Put another way, faltering economies will eventually sort themselves out.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Or at least, failing the appropriate response, the downturn can be as miserable and long-lasting as the Great Depression before getting sorted out.

I don't know, here the real estate market has turned the corner, and joblessness is getting a bit better, not great by any standards, but I feel we have started slowly to turn up, and that the worst is behind us. Of course, the BIG bugaboo is the deficit, and we simply must buckle down and find some ways to decrease it and begin eliminating it. I do believe that some of that can be accomplished if Congress works with itself and Obama. Much like asking a bunch of tom cats to play nicely, but I can hope.


ETA: Anthy, I would also classify myself as a social liberal and fiscal conservative, albeit the "conservative" there is strictly applied to budgets and the practicality of those budgets. I also believe that the better off you are financially, that you carry a greater responsibility to your fellow countrymen in paying your fair share, especially when it comes to income that is not earned or comes in the form of overly generous perks.

[River]

The current popular vote tally is 50.4% for Obama and 48.1% for Romney with the difference split between a bunch of other people. So I'd be very careful about even attempting to make a statement about the majority.

If you are referring to me here (and you probably are) I did say (I think!!) that maybe the popular vote favored Romney. I apologize if it looked like I was sure about this, or trying to make a statement; I really did mean “maybe”. I think even if the popular vote goes to Obama, even if it’s only slightly less than 50% of the people voted for Romney, that is a LOT of people, they still have a right to feel unhappy today. That was my point.

And it's a fair one. In 2008 I was pretty selective about who I celebrated in front of. This time around it'll be no different, though my lab is amazingly uniform about its politics (not so much about that more divisive issue of cats vs. dogs) so I'll be able to let my hair down a little more in front of coworkers.

When the election got called last night, Obama was lagging in the popular vote. His numbers started going up as more votes were actually tallied (as opposed to projected). Once Florida gets itself sorted out we'll have the final count but I suspect the numbers won't change that dramatically.

Honestly, my reaction to an Obama loss would have been disappointment and then curiousity. Disappointment because I voted for Obama and curiousity about how the modelers would explain it. As it is, I'm just going to wait and see how many pundits have the strength of character to eat crow.

What worries me about the election results is continued gridlock in the Legislative branch, but the fact of the matter is the chances of any sort of dramatic change in the make-up of the House or the Senate was never that high. I'm glad Akin and Mourdock lost. I'm glad Warren won. Baldwin I don't know much about but it's cool she got voted in. I know some of the older generation in my family are going to be squirming over that and the passage of gay marriage in some states. They're just going to have to come to terms with the fact that their views are being supplanted by a younger crowd that sees homosexuality as part of normal human existence. It's really really hard to be suspicious of someone just because they're gay when you have peers and maybe even family members that are out and, shock shock, not that different from you.

[anthriel]

ETA: Anthy, I would also classify myself as a social liberal and fiscal conservative, albeit the "conservative" there is strictly applied to budgets and the practicality of those budgets. I also believe that the better off you are financially, that you carry a greater responsibility to your fellow countrymen in paying your fair share, especially when it comes to income that is not earned or comes in the form of overly generous perks.

Agreed. With all of this!



River, it is nice to be able to let your hair down. Sorry about the dogs vs. cats thing, though. That must be miserable!