Protests in Burma

[Túrin Turambar]

It looked like the usual sad story. Monks and pro-democracy activists took to the streets of Burma (called Myanmar by its illegitimate military Government), and were shot, beaten up or imprisoned by Government soldiers. Now there’s rumours circulating that there’s dissent in the ranks of the Junta’s forces. Some people are talking of a mutiny, others are suggesting that senior members of the Junta are no longer co-operating with General Than Shwe.

One bit of positive news I did hear was that the officers were reluctant to fire on the monks. Burma is strongly Theravada Buddhist, and killing a monk is considered a terrible sin in Buddhism. Also, the leaders of the Junta are not as young as they once were, and their reactions have not been as swift as they were previously.

So is this just going to be another massacre, or might we see real change in Burma from this?

[axordil]

A split in the ranks is the only thing that can really cause change at this point. The junta operates out of its own version of Barad-dûr that they built out in the middle of nowhere, so the protests can't be physically threatening. That, and the fact that the monks that were the core of these protests have now been disappeared, has sucked the wind out of the protests' sails.

About the only thing that anyone outside the country could do that would make any difference is if China, that bastion of human rights and the only country with significant trade with Burma these days, decided there might be some fallout that would make them look bad for their precious Olympics and leaned on the junta. I'm not holding my breath.

[solicitr]

Unfortunately, Gandhi-esque passive resistance and civil disobedience only work when the regime has a shred of conscience to prick, as the British did. Had India been ruled by the Nazis, Gandhi would have been executed and his followers machine-gunned in the streets.

Another Tienanmen Square, Prague Spring, Budapest '56, St Petersburg 1905 I'm afraid.

[MithLuin]

What about Solidarnosc in Communist Poland or the revolt in the Phillippines about 20 years ago? I know that in the Phillippines, they were able to win over some key military people to the cause, and the Russians weren't really going to invade Poland....but still, those were oppressive regimes, too.


I will be hopeful, just because the people of Burma don't deserve us giving up on them. Even if my hope doesn't translate into any actual help....

[axordil]

In the Philippines the armed forces abandoned Marcos, if memory serves, because they didn't think the US was going to keep supporting him. In Poland there were conflicted loyalties as well, and a charismatic leader with some serious political instincts. Oh, and an anti-communist Pope who was from there and vocal.

In both cases the regimes were at least somewhat beholden to the outside world. Burma really isn't, other than (to some extent) with China. They control all food production, so if a whole province revolts, they can just starve them. I believe they've done that, too.

[solicitr]

Ultimately the Warsaw Pact fell precisely because Gorbachev did, in fact, have a conscience.

[axordil]

And a military that had spent itself in Afghanistan...

[solicitr]

Not really. The forces committed to Afghanistan were a pittance compare to those stationed on the Iron Curtain

[MithLuin]

Say rather that their economy could not support their military being such a large percentage of their expenditure.

[solicitr]

Naturally. I recall the recollection of a State Dept vet talking to a Soviet opposite number in the background of one of the summits early in the Reagan Administration: "You bastards. You'll spend and spend and spend and we'll break ourselves trying to keep up."

[axordil]

I would say that the numbers in Afghanistan were relatively small, but the effect of their slow grinding away was felt throughout not only the military, but the society. For one thing, the state of the veterans (or enough of them) who came back belied official reports about the state of the conflict. So far as I know, heroin addiction was virtually unknown in the USSR before the Afghan conflict.

As a side not, much of the criminal element that flowered with the collapse of the USSR got its start then. And now it's part of the power structure.

The Russian military had a mythology about itself before Afghanistan...it just wasn't the same afterwards. Morale matters.

[Crucifer]

Friends, I combined this and following posts with the existing Burma thread - VtF

It would appear that every Buddhist monk in Burma was carted off to concentration camps during the week. Journalists are being hunted down by the Army, the police, and pro Junta vigilantes. (The first two will arrest you, the last will kill you).

Why does no one act?

Why do these so called "bastions of human rights" and "advocates of freedom" simply do nothing?

Why?

(Cross posted with b77.)

[themary]

I said on B77 and I'll say it here IMO this thread is trolling. There is no reason for someone to blatantly try to irritate Americans by being sarcastic. And there certainly isn't a point in a real response.

If you would like to start a thread about Burma and discuss that it's fine but don't intentionally try to single out the US and pee on them please.

[Túrin Turambar]

In addition, we already have a Burma thread.

[Jnyusa]

Crucifer, I'm going to move these posts to the existing Burma thread.

Jn

Hmmm ... on second thought, I'm going to have to wait for another marshal to do this. I'm not getting the cues I need to move the first post.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I took care of the move.

As for the subject, I tend to agree with tm that singling out the U.S. for what is happening is excessive. Certainly other countries (most notably China) also have the ability to to influence the Burmese/Myamar junta.

[Lily Rose]

Same thing that I said on B77 applies here, too.
Again, if you have some other purpose for that comment other than upsetting the American's on the boards, then please let us know. This is certainly a topic worth discussing, however a blatant attack is uncalled for.

[Lurker]

Why does that "great advocate of freedom", that protector from communism, America, simply stand by and watch?

Why? (Cross posted with b77.)

Why do we always need the Americans to intervene in this situation, anyways?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bashing the US, I'm just saying why not the member countries of the ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) go meet and find a solution to this. I know some of their member countries sent peacekeepers to places like Haiti and Iraq. Why don't they help out their own neighbor.

[River]

As I said on b77, the general global inaction is probably due to lack of economic/geopolitical incentive and fear of irritating China.

I suppose it is also possible that any sort of destabilization of Burma could have some other violent repercussions in the region. But that's just a very wild guess. I'm not exactly schooled in Southeast Asian, or Burmese, politics.

[nerdanel]

Why does that "great advocate of freedom", that protector from communism, America, simply stand by and watch?

Why?

Is there some reason you wish to take the United States specifically to task for its alleged inaction while not questioning the inaction of your own country? Or do you consider the EU's toothless "sanctions" against Burma to be sufficient "action" on your country's part?