The challenges ahead (Biden's America)

[RoseMorninStar]

Rogan and his guest mocked Biden for saying that George Washington seized airports -- which of course wouldn't exist for more than 100 years -- but when confronted with the fact that it was Trump who said that, they passed it off as a mere slip of the tongue and criticize the media for making them believe something untrue. Trump himself had blamed a teleprompter error. That could be true, but boy how Rogan's changing reaction shows what a drug partisanship is. But some credit is due to him for checking in the first place.

Trump, on many occasions, has claimed he doesn't use a teleprompter.

[N.E. Brigand]

With the close of the 2023 markets today, the price of oil is down more than 10% from where it was at the start of the year.

[N.E. Brigand]

The U.S. unemployment rate in December, announced today, was 3.468%, which is the lowest it's been since 1969.

President Biden himself noted the good news here.

If you read through the replies to that tweet, you'll see a lot of people arguing that the unemployment numbers aren't accurate, so I think it's worth noting that they are calculated in the same way they always have been. Except for 16 months during the pandemic (Apr. 2020-Aug. 2021), the U.S. unemployment rate has consistently been quite good -- at or below 5% -- since May 2016.* It has now been at or below 4% for 13 straight months in Joe Biden's administration, but before the pandemic, it was at or below 4% for more than two straight years of Donald Trump's administration (Mar. 2018-Mar. 2020)**. But I don't think those Biden detractors are claiming that the numbers were untrue while Trump was president.

*For most of my life that wasn't the case. The U.S. unemployment rate was above 5% in every month from Jan. 1974 to Apr. 1997 (with one very brief exception: it dropped to 5% in Mar. 1989 before rising again the next month). That's more than 23 straight years, including the entire presidencies of Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush (except as noted above), and more than half the presidency of Bill Clinton. It was at or below 5% for more than four years from May 1997 to Sep. 2001 (including the first nine months of George W. Bush's presidency), then above 5% for more than three years from Oct. 2001 to May 2005, then at or below 5% for under three years from Jun. 2005 to Feb. 2008, and then it jumped to 10% due to the Great Recession, remaining for above 5% for the next eight years, except for six of the months form September 2015 to April 2016 (i.e., until nearly the last year of Barack Obama's presidency).

In other words, more than 34 of the last 50 years have had U.S. unemployment above 5%.

**I looked again at the chart. The current streak of 22 months below 4% (Feb. 2022-Nov. 2023) is indeed the longest since the 27-month streak that ended after Jan. 1970 (and the third-longest such streak ever, following that one and the 23 35 months from Jan. 1951-Nov. 1953), and because the streak at or below 4% during Donald Trump's presidency actually ended in Feb. 2020 (not Mar. 2020, as I wrote above), the current 24-month streak of Dec. 2021 to Nov. 2023 has tied that one.

Edit: Trying to count better.

[N.E. Brigand]

Bloomberg reports today that pharmaceutical company "Eli Lilly & Co. is capping out-of-pocket costs for insulin at $35 a month, following a public plea from President Joe Biden for lower prices of the diabetes treatment for all Americans."

Now all three major providers of insulin in the U.S. -- Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi -- have agreed to cap the cost at $35 per month.

Joe Biden? Never heard of him.



In case it's not clear, Meg Tirrell reports for CNN.

I think Green may be incorrect that Joe Biden signed a law that caused the price of insulin to be capped for everyone (as opposed to just for seniors, who have Medicare coverage), but it is definitely true that the three major manufacturers wouldn't have imposed this cap if not for Biden! But the linked article doesn't mention him once.

[N.E. Brigand]

--The murder rate has plummeted in many major U.S. cities. For example, Baltimore's numbers (although still high) are the lowest in a decade (i.e., since Obama was president).

From an ABC report, here's some updated information about that trend:



In Baltimore the numbers dropped by 25% in 2023.

[Sunsilver]

And this time, we can't blame COVID for the drop!

Interesting it's mainly the southern 'redneck' states that have the largest percentage of diabetics! I would guess that poverty and poor diet have a lot to do with it.

[Inanna]

It always throws me off when chronological information is presented in reverse chronological order. I had to see that chart multiple times to get it.

[N.E. Brigand]

Pressed by CNN host Jake Tapper yesterday, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the Border Patrol doesn't need the additional money or agents that President Biden wants to provide the agency. And another House Republican, Troy Nehls of Texas, also told CNN yesterday that he won't support the bipartisan border security package that Senate Republicans have been crafting with the White House (and also includes military aid for Ukraine and Israel) because doing so would "help Joe Biden's approval rating."

[N.E. Brigand]

This point may be taken as positive by some and negative by others, I suppose, but:

"Joe Biden is the most religiously active president we've had in generations." By the end of last year, "Biden had attended Mass 100 times [since taking office]. That's more [religious services attended in a president's first three years] than Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush combined."

A new poll asked respondents of three public figures if they believed each was "a person of faith." It's not surprising that a clear majority of Republicans (64%) said yes of Donald Trump and a clear majority of Democrats (69%) said yes of Joe Biden -- and that only a minority on both sides agreed believed it was true of the other party's leader. More interesting is that a slight majority of Democrats (53%) also said yes of Mitt Romney -- but only a minority of Republicans (34%) said that. Among Independents, only a minority said so of all three men: 41% said yes of Romney, 36% said yes of Biden, and 24% said yes of Trump.

[Alatar]

I can't believe its even a factor.

[Inanna]

I agree, Al. It’s ridiculous. India is just as nonsensical when it comes to religion.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

US added 216,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations

[N.E. Brigand]

US added 216,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations

Great news! I noticed on a CNN video about this story posted this morning to Youtube that a number of the comments argued that too many of these jobs being government jobs. I see that this was raised in the Fox report that Aaron Rupar highlighted.

I am taking this as an occasion to revisit and correct the list I previously shared. The current streak of unemployment entirely below 4% is 23 months (since Feb. 2022), the third-longest such streak ever. Here is a list of all such periods -- going back to 1948, the first month on the BLS site -- that lasted more than one month, also showing who was president during that time:

1. Jan. 1951-Nov. 1953 (35 months) -- Truman, Eisenhower
2. Nov. 1967-Jan. 1970 (27 months) -- Johnson, Nixon
3. Feb. 2022-Dec. 2023 (23 months) -- Biden
4. Feb. 1966-Sep. 1967 (20 months) -- Johnson
5. Feb. 2019-Feb. 2020 (13 months) -- Trump
6. Apr. 1948-Nov. 1948 (8 months) -- Truman
7. July 2018-Dec. 2018 (6 months) -- Trump
8. Sep. 2000-Dec. 2000 (4 months) -- Clinton
9. Feb. 1957-Apr. 1957 (3 months) -- Eisenhower
10. (tie) Jan. 1948-Feb. 1948 (2 months) -- Truman
10. (tie) Sept. 1956-Oct. 1956 (2 months) -- Eisenhower

That means the unemployment rate never dropped below 4% during the administrations of Kennedy, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr., Bush Jr., or Obama.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-s ... t-rate.htm
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

I'm surprised that the Fox team didn't point out that both the October and November numbers were revised down from the initial reports. There are always revisions, sometimes up and sometimes down. The way the data is collected is that the Bureau of Labor Statistic (at the Department of Labor) sends a survey to 500,000+ companies, asking how many people they had employed on the 12th day of the month. I have participated in this myself for the company where I work. But sometimes I was too busy to report, so I was given the opportunity to do so (or to revise my prior numbers) for that month in both the next month and the month after that. (The BLS has any given company participate for at least two years, and they push pretty hard to get the data: I would get both emails and phone calls if I was late.) That's why the DOL issues two revisions. It appears that roughly 70% of companies report the first time. By the third time, that number has increased to 90% or more.

I have seen some people arguing that today's numbers are boosted by seasonal holiday staffing and thus will be revised down. It is true that every single month in 2023 (so far) has seen a downward revision. (In 2022, that only happened for four months. In 2021, it only happened once.) It's not necessarily true that the December numbers will be revised down later. In fact, in six of the past ten years, the December numbers went up later. Here's a list showing the change from the first report to the third report for just the December jobs report:

2022 -- 223,000 (1st) to 239,000 (3rd) = +16,000 (revision)
2021 -- 199,000 (1st) to 588,000 (3rd) = +389,000 (revision)
2020 -- -140,000 (1st) to -306,000 (3rd) = -166,000 (revision)
2019 -- 145,000 (1st) to 184,000 (3rd) = +39,000 (revision)
2018 -- 312,000 (1st) to 227,000 (3rd) = -85,000 (revision)
2017 -- 148,000 (1st) to 175,000 (3rd) = +27,000 (revision)
2016 -- 156,000 (1st) to 155,000 (3rd) = -1,000 (revision)
2015 -- 292,000 (1st) to 271,000 (3rd) = -21,000 (revision)
2014 -- 252,000 (1st) to 329,000 (3rd) = +77,000 (revision)
2013 -- 74,000 (1st) to 84,000 (3rd) = +10,000 (revision)

I'm not clear on what happened in December 2021: that's a huge (and positive) change! We had to cancel the final week of our play that month because of the omicron wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. But that would have been after the date used to report the numbers. And we didn't lay anybody off because of it.

Sources:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/r ... umbers.htm
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

[N.E. Brigand]

Another claim some people are making to argue that the numbers are actually bad is that this is a result of people working more than one job. As Matt Yglesias notes, it ain't so:



The number of multiple jobholders is up from the pandemic but right in line with where it was for the previous 20 years.

[RoseMorninStar]

This point may be taken as positive by some and negative by others, I suppose, but:

"Joe Biden is the most religiously active president we've had in generations." By the end of last year, "Biden had attended Mass 100 times [since taking office]. That's more [religious services attended in a president's first three years] than Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush combined."

A new poll asked respondents of three public figures if they believed each was "a person of faith." It's not surprising that a clear majority of Republicans (64%) said yes of Donald Trump and a clear majority of Democrats (69%) said yes of Joe Biden -- and that only a minority on both sides agreed believed it was true of the other party's leader. More interesting is that a slight majority of Democrats (53%) also said yes of Mitt Romney -- but only a minority of Republicans (34%) said that. Among Independents, only a minority said so of all three men: 41% said yes of Romney, 36% said yes of Biden, and 24% said yes of Trump.

I can't believe that is even a factor

RE: the US and politics and religion; the issue isn't what faith a particular politician follows (or not) it is that religion has been intentionally weaponized as a political strategy and used as a political tool--seemingly regardless of actual religion/religious practice. It's a paradox, which is what I think the post/polls by NB tries to address. Someone who is better versed in politics may know a little more about this than I do, but about 40 or so years ago or so there was a concerted effort to wed the Christian Right/Evangelicals with Republican politics. This was done because the Christian right tends to vote as a bloc and it was determined that would be politically useful. It has, in my humble opinion, led to the a decline in faith/those who practice religion because too many use it as a means to seek worldly power.

[Sunsilver]

Exactly, Rose, exactly!

And those of you who might still think Trump is religious, rather than just catering to the Christian Right to get votes... After the last election, Biden went to Mass on Sunday.

Trump was playing golf at Mar-a-Lago.

In interviews, Trump has shown zero knowledge of just how Christianity works. He doesn't believe he needs to ask for forgiveness. He's often said his personal philosophy can be summed up in one word: "revenge'. He cannot cite a favourite Bible verse. And some of those who are close to him have said when watching the pastors of mega-churches, like Joel Osteen preach, he's called them 'scammers' and marveled at how successful they've been, with their huge mansions and private jet planes. Also, in his book 'Think Big' he calls Christians 'fools, idiots and schmucks.'

Sorry for the info dump, but as a Christian, I've been keeping track of this. It saddens me that I've had to break off friendships with Evangelical friends because they believe Trump was 'sent by God'.

So far, I've had no luck at convincing any of them otherwise...

https://www.cnn.com/2015/07/18/politics ... index.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump- ... 023-12-26/
https://www.salon.com/2020/09/11/what-h ... s_partner/

[RoseMorninStar]

To be clear, I have NO PROBLEM if an American politician has no faith or practices no religion (or if they have/practice a personal faith). I don't care if Trump golfs or if Biden attends mass. It shouldn't matter. It doesn't matter to me. However, the Trump/messiah perception thing is just plain bizarre.

[Sunsilver]

Rose:

[N.E. Brigand]

US added 216,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations

Great news! I noticed on a CNN video about this story posted this morning to Youtube that a number of the comments argued that too many of these jobs being government jobs. I see that this was raised in the Fox report that Aaron Rupar highlighted. I am taking this as an occasion to revisit and correct the list I previously shared. The current streak of unemployment entirely below 4% is 23 months (since Feb. 2022), the third-longest such streak ever. Here is a list of all ten such periods -- going back to 1948, the first month on the BLS site -- that lasted more than one month, also showing who was president during that time:

1. Jan. 1951-Nov. 1953 (35 months) -- Truman, Eisenhower
2. Nov. 1967-Jan. 1970 (27 months) -- Johnson, Nixon
3. Feb. 2022-Dec. 2023 (23 months) -- Biden
4. Feb. 1966-Sep. 1967 (20 months) -- Johnson
5. Feb. 2019-Feb. 2020 (13 months) -- Trump ...

Simon Rosenberg points out that the two longest periods of unemployment below 4% happened during the Korean War and Vietnam War, respectively, "so currently we're in the best peace-time job market since World War II." (Data before 1948 isn't on the BLS website. I don't know whether it exists or not.)

- - - - - - - - -
Steven Ratner adds the following:



You'll notice that the previous best number was in late 2019, when Donald Trump was president. Trump touted this fact at the time. That was fair.

[RoseMorninStar]

Sunny