Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Frelga]

Does anyone else get the feeling that Putin is intentionally antagonizing 'The West' to get involved so he can use nukes and blame it on Nato starting WWIII/a nuclear war?

Putin will do whatever he thinks he can do, and blame it on anyone he feels like, in the way of bullies and abusive exes everywhere. His attack on Ukraine has a strong "if I can't have you, no one can" vibe. That's why this is Very Bad.

It is not possible to appease him. There is a reason why Ukrainians are willing to die fighting or flee with a single bag, rather than surrender and live with him as their ruler. In the long run, it will be worse.

It's notable how many videos are filmed by Russian speakers. Like this one. "Zombies," she says. "What were you lacking at home? How brainwashed do you have to be to come here to loot and murder?
"



These are dark days, dear friends.

[RoseMorninStar]

Frelga, I have the impression that many in Russia revere Putin as a 'fighter' for Russia and believe everything his State propaganda channels pump out. Even as Independent news outlets shut down and people leave for fear of their lives. How accurate do you think that is? Is it kinda like here, where we are divided between FOX/OAN and people who get most of their news elsewhere? I've seen videos of (for example) young adults living in Ukraine calling their family in Russia to tell them what is happening & the parents do not believe their children.


BTW, I've thought the same thing about Putin and 'If I can't have Ukraine, no one can'.

[River]

It reminds me of the fire. They've collected the burned out vehicles that were parked on public roads. Before that, though, if you went past the right part of the burn zone...it reminds me of the fire.

Except the fire was nature, in all its mindless and destructive glory. This...this is something else entirely.

ETA: I compared Russia's behavior to that of a murderous and abusive ex a couple weeks ago. My husband thought I was being a bit dramatic, but a couple days later he openly speculated about Putin's mental state so I'm taking that as a sign he takes my assessment seriously. The problem is, this isn't a mad man and an escaping partner. These are nations and the angry, jealous, murderous ex has nukes.

[Sunsilver]

Good ol' Enchie - she found the cartoon for me within minutes of me asking!

Because the video is now on the previous page, I'll just drop the link here to make sure everyone knows who the cartoon is referring to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L17Bi7zBJHI

[Frelga]

Frelga, I have the impression that many in Russia revere Putin as a 'fighter' for Russia and believe everything his State propaganda channels pump out. Even as Independent news outlets shut down and people leave for fear of their lives. How accurate do you think that is?

I'll be honest, I don't have first-hand knowledge. Since FIL passed in 2020, I haven't even watched Russian TV.

But. Moscow is a city of 10 million. All respect to those who face brutal police treatment to protest war, but their numbers are tiny. If Moscow turned out, as in 1991, it would be game over for police.

This is a good and ongoing thread, although the best I can personally say is that I have no evidence that any of it is wrong.

Use caution when playing videos from the war. Some contain graphic images. Photographs are safe.

[RoseMorninStar]

That's really discouraging.

[Sunsilver]

This interview with a captured Russian soldier shows just how badly they have been misinformed by Putin's propaganda machine:

[RoseMorninStar]

I have a friend who asked some good questions that I don't seem to have adequate answers for and I was wondering if anyone else had thoughts on the subject.

I find it somewhat curious and sad that the world rallies for Ukrainians in a way that did not happen for Afghanis and Iraqis most recently. Syrian refugees became a big problem for Europe. Not as widespread an outpouring of support for them as for the Ukrainians. Why? Also, I find troubling the reports of black people and students from India who are trying to get out being held back and mistreated by Ukrainians. Kind of an awful thing. [/url]

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Those are very good questions that I and others that I know have also been asking.

Some more good questions. What is the expected endgame of the sanctions on and isolation of Russia? I am not seeing a good endgame that does not involve genuine dialogue and isolation makes that all the more difficult.

[Dave_LF]

I have wondered a great deal on both those things as well. World leaders seem incapable of learning that invaders are never greeted as liberators, and that imposing harsh sanctions turns the people against YOU.

[RoseMorninStar]

I asked this same question to a fellow LOTR friend on FB (I think she went by the name of Estel) and she gave a long and considered response which I mostly agree with. I do think world-wide systemic racism is an issue, but while I agree that racism a problem I don't think that is all that is at play in this situation. Because I knew my friend would be sensitive and I didn't want to walk into a land-mine, I gave a short answer, ("All good questions. Complicated answers. Some of it likely has to do not so much being pro-Ukraine as it is anti-Putin.") which I think upset my friend for being inadequate.

I think part of the difference in response is that conflicts in (ex.) Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, or Eritrea (etc..) are not likely to become a third world war. That is not the case when Russia is involved. It also can become a nuclear war on our soil. We sent troops to conflicts in other places, but it wasn't likely to spread much beyond those borders. Wasn't that Osama Bin Laden's point? He wanted to bring fear and war to our shores? I also think tribalism plays a part. Personally I find the word 'tribe' easier to wrap my head around than 'race'. When a person has more in common with a 'tribe' of people it is easier to identify with them.

[Frelga]

People are more likely to rush to help their neighbors when their house is on fire than they are to a burning house in the next state. I don't know what can be done about it.

This article has good analysis of what is really going on from Russian POV and where it may be going. I don't know how much insider knowledge Sushko really has, but it was retweeted by RT UK. FWIW.

[Túrin Turambar]

I think there's no easy answer to the questions Rose posted.

Some of the coverage of the war has been either problematic (to use the modern euphemism) or racist.

Still, I don't think that you can ignore that Ukraine is a recognisably European country, Kyiv is a recognisably European city like Warsaw or Bucharest, Ukrainians are Europeans who speak a language similar to Polish or Slovakian, play in European football leagues, and work for European companies. So naturally Europeans will feel that events in Ukraine are closer than events in the Middle East and Africa. Americans would be more alarmed by someone attacking Toronto than someone attacking Damascus.

The Ukraine War is also not as practically complex or morally ambiguous as the Syrian War. You are not choosing between supporting Bashar Al-Assad or Islamic State. The only reason why people have fled Ukraine is because it's been invaded; they would presumably have been content to stay otherwise. A Russian defeat or withdrawal provides an unambiguous solution.

And, as Rose said, this has the potential to be the start of World War III. I do not want to downplay the human cost of the last two decades' wars in the Middle East, but the global stakes have not been as high.

[Sunsilver]

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.

Someone asked "What's with Putin and the huge tables?" Now we have our answer!

The article makes me wonder how this is all going to end. It makes it sound like a complete Russian victory is impossible. Even if they did overrun the whole country, yeah, what then? A Vichy-type occupation? Don't think that will work. Too much hatred of the Russians, as the writer says.

Give up? Withdraw? I don't think Putin's ego will allow that.

[RoseMorninStar]

Good points. This conflict seems less ambiguous (or less complicated, at least on the surface) which makes it easier to choose sides. As for neighbors rushing to help, that is very true, but I think my friend was puzzled not by the response of say, Poland, but by the response of people in the US, Canada, etc... compared to the response for other conflicts on another continent. She further stated,

"I don't know how Ukrainians not being oppressed and being invaded makes them more sympathetic? Is the implication they are innocent? If so, why weren't Iraqis and Afghanis? They had zero to do with being invaded, and Iraq and Afghanistan civilians were most certainly invaded and bombed by the US."

I've given that some thought and part of that I would hazard a guess is that we (US Military, etc..) did, at least in the case of Iraq, initially go as liberators and then it turned into an (embarrassing) quagmire that could not be won. Fighting against the Taliban was much the same. I don't think it's that 'we' are not sympathetic to those who are suffering but that it is not a cause we could rally for because we were involved in the destruction. World-wide systemic racism is real, and it's terrible that such discrimination happens, especially at stressful potentially life-threatening times.

Last night I watched an excellent PBS Frontline program (part of a series) that is several years old but discussed Putin and the Russian viewpoint. It was enlightening and revealed (to me) several things I had not known about Putin. Interestingly, many of his behaviors closely mirror that of Trump (obsessively watching and re-watching TV coverage about himself, etc..)

[N.E. Brigand]

Now it appears that Poland will send some of its older fighters to a U.S. airbase in Germany, where the U.S. will rebrand them and deliver them to Ukraine.

Then the U.S. will provide Poland with newer planes to replenish its own fleet.

Ukrainian pilots are already trained on the fighters currently used by Polish air force.

[N.E. Brigand]

Now it appears that Poland will send some of its older fighters to a U.S. airbase in Germany, where the U.S. will rebrand them and deliver them to Ukraine.

Then the U.S. will provide Poland with newer planes to replenish its own fleet.

Ukrainian pilots are already trained on the fighters currently used by Polish air force.

Not so fast! For the second time in a week, this story is being walked back. Although Poland announced this earlier today, the U.S. says the plan won't work. Too much risk of escalation.

[Lalaith]

Rose, my very inadequate response to your friend would be something along these lines. These are all my best guesses.

1. Many Americans are European descendants and still feel strong connections to their ancestors' countries.

2. Ukrainians are white and look like "us." So just plain tribalism or racism.

3. Evangelicals and Christian fundamentalists see this as part of the End Times, like I said previously, and are invested in the whole situation.

4. I think there's still many who remember the Cold War and being afraid of Russia, myself included. Russia was our enemy. Even after the Cold War ended, they kept doing sketchy things--if anyone cared to pay attention.

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[Alatar]

Its not just that they "look like us". They could be us. Syrian and Afghan refugees are "other" in a way that has very little to do with race. They have a different socioeconomic and historical background. That doesn't mean we don't feel for them, but it doesn't hit home as hard as it does for a fellow European. Also, its worth remembering that European countries took in millions of refugees from those conflicts, so I'm not sure why we're being demonised for being slightly more empathetic to our neighbours.

[Sunsilver]

4. I think there's still many who remember the Cold War and being afraid of Russia, myself included. Russia was our enemy. Even after the Cold War ended, they kept doing sketchy things--if anyone cared to pay attention.

Yes, this. I very much remember the Cold War, especially the Cuban missile crisis, which had us all shaking in our shoes. Yes, even in Canada!

Also, I've never forgotten that Putin used to be the head of the KGB, and have never trusted him in the slightest.