2020 Presidential Election

[yovargas]

Do I?? That was honestly a guess on my part, lol.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Given that my previous prediction (setting aside chapeau culinary silliness) was that Elizabeth Warren was going to win the nomination and presidency, this should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but how I see things playing out right now is Sanders going to the convention with the most delegates but not a majority, the party establishment eventually combining to give the nomination to a more moderate candidate (though I can't see who), Sanders' supporters rebelling against the party, and Trump winning reelection handily.

[elengil]

Given that my previous prediction (setting aside chapeau culinary silliness) was that Elizabeth Warren was going to win the nomination and presidency, this should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but how I see things playing out right now is Sanders going to the convention with the most delegates but not a majority, the party establishment eventually combining to give the nomination to a more moderate candidate (though I can't see who), Sanders' supporters rebelling against the party, and Trump winning reelection handily.

I desperately wish someone could call the Sanders campaign and say choose Warren or Klochbar (sp?) as a running mate for broader appeal both in and out of the party. I wonder if that would be enough, to get two well-liked candidates running on the same ticket like that?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Deval Patrick?

Patrick has now dropped out, so my previous comment is now accurate.

[Frelga]

I desperately wish someone could call the Sanders campaign and say choose Warren or Klochbar (sp?) as a running mate for broader appeal both in and out of the party. I wonder if that would be enough, to get two well-liked candidates running on the same ticket like that?

I would vastly prefer Sanders realizing that he is not up to the stresses of the presidency and offering himself as the running mate to Warren and Klobuchar, whichever of them wins the nomination. That this is not in the realm of possibility is among the reasons why Sanders is at the bottom of my list. The man just wants to be king.

[elengil]

I desperately wish someone could call the Sanders campaign and say choose Warren or Klochbar (sp?) as a running mate for broader appeal both in and out of the party. I wonder if that would be enough, to get two well-liked candidates running on the same ticket like that?

I would vastly prefer Sanders realizing that he is not up to the stresses of the presidency and offering himself as the running mate to Warren and Klobuchar, whichever of them wins the nomination. That this is not in the realm of possibility is among the reasons why Sanders is at the bottom of my list. The man just wants to be king.

I meant to say if Sanders gets the nomination, not that he should get it. But I don't get 'king Burnie' out of anything he does at all. Not even close.

In general, whoever wins the nomination would be well-served by taking one of the other well-polling candidates as their running mate.

edit: Klobuchar. Wow, I butchered that one.

[Túrin Turambar]

OT, but a while back a woman of Polish descent named Annastsacia Palaszczuk unexpectedly became Premier of Queensland after her party won an election they weren’t expected to. Every political journalist in the country then ended up tying themselves in knots trying to remember how to spell her name. Someone hit on “P-A-L-A-Sydney Zoo-Canberra Zoo-United Kingdom”, and it clearly works because I still remember how to spell it years later (but I had to check the spelling of her Christian name). Could anyone come up with anything similar for Klobuchar?

[Inanna]

I don’t find Klobuchar hard at all. Must be because “ch” is common in last names in my part of India.

[Maria]

I handle sales orders to people with all kinds of weird names every day. From Abbruzzese to Zirkelbach. Klobuchar is quite pronouncible in comparison to some.

[River]

Maybe it's because I work for a German multinat. Or maybe it's because I married a Serb. But the consonant mess in Klobuchar just isn't a problem for me. There's a vowel in every syllable. Chill.

[elengil]

Maybe it's because I work for a German multinat. Or maybe it's because I married a Serb. But the consonant mess in Klobuchar just isn't a problem for me. There's a vowel in every syllable. Chill.

It's not that it's hard, I just kept mispronouncing it in my head, which made trying to spell it particularly bad. I'm not always good with reading names/words I am unfamiliar with.

[RoseMorninStar]

I think Klobuchar resonates with the mid-west. I fear that we will have a democratic win but that Trump will take it with the electoral college.. again. It's too often we are being ruled (can't say 'lead') by someone who does not win the popular vote.

I don't think Sanders acts like a King, but I feel many of his supporters are looking for a Demagogue/Trump opposite. While I don't think he's anywhere near as bad as what we have, I'd rather have someone who wouldn't be so divisive.

[River]

Maybe it's because I work for a German multinat. Or maybe it's because I married a Serb. But the consonant mess in Klobuchar just isn't a problem for me. There's a vowel in every syllable. Chill.

It's not that it's hard, I just kept mispronouncing it in my head, which made trying to spell it particularly bad. I'm not always good with reading names/words I am unfamiliar with.

Oh I had to listen to the right pronunciation of Buttigieg a couple times before I dared try it myself. It's pretty obvious why he goes by Mayor Pete.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Bloomberg has bought his way on to qualified for the debate tomorrow in Nevada (even though he is not on the ballot in Nevada.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Warren showed last night how strong she can be against a billionaire with a history of poor treatment of women. Too bad she'll never get a chance against the other billionaire (maybe) with even more of a history of poor treatment of women.

[Túrin Turambar]

Half of the Nevada results are in and Sanders is way ahead of his polling, getting a little under half the vote. If this holds, it’s pretty much an unmitigated triumph for him and his first really clear and decisive win. He’s done very well among Hispanics, and is even catching up to Biden among African-Americans (although Biden still seems to have enough support among Black Democrats to win South Carolina). His results in both Iowa and New Hampshire were a bit behind expectations, but the first three states have left him standing as the only candidate with broad appeal. The big challenge he still faces is Bloomberg, but between the Nevada debate and Bloomberg’s late start he might get ahead of him as well. We’ll know after Super Tuesday.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I still don't think that Bloomberg presents a real threat. The biggest takeaway for me of the Nevada results is Warren's poor showing, despite her universally having been considered to have decisively won the Nevada debate. Part of that is because early voting took place before the debate, and she did do somewhat better in the voting the day of the caucuses. Part of it is undoubtedly pure unadulterated sexism. But most of it is that Bernie gives people what they want to hear without a lot of complicated details.

Trump 2020!

[Túrin Turambar]

On current opinion polling averages Bloomberg is practically level with Biden for second place, so I’d be wary of writing him off. We haven’t actually seen his electoral performance yet and there’s still a lot of delegates available. But I wouldn’t bet against Sanders at this point, particularly with Bloomberg’s poor showing in the debate and the number of early votes cast.

I agree that the Nevada debate was probably too late to influence the caucus. I think that Warren is a problematic candidate (and not just because of her gender, c.f. Amy Klobuchar’s over-performance in the first two states), but that she’s also had a run of bad luck. Her low point came right before Iowa, and even though she seems to have a polling bump from the debate it was too late to have an effect in Nevada (which was never going to be a strong state for her anyway) and it’s unlikely to translate into votes in South Carolina (which we’d expect to be one of her weakest states demographically). She really needed a good result in New Hampshire for her candidacy to be viable.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Or California. But Bernie is looking like a lock here.

I'm skeptical of one-on-one polls at this point, but Sanders dies poll well against Trump, in contrast to the doomsday scenarios painted by the Democratic establishment about a Sanders candidacy.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[RoseMorninStar]

Dies? Paired with 'doomsday' .. Freudian slip?