The 2012 US Election

Post by **axordil** » Sat Jan 21, 2012 6:51 pm

Well, every winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination since at least 1980. That's a lot of history to buck. And the latest polls are showing Gingrich with a commanding, even double-digit lead. Remarkably.

I heard NPR interviewing GOP voters in SC, and it's far less of a monolithic block than one might think. Sure, there are social conservatives, but there's also a fair number of neocons (big state for the military) and a lot of working-class voters for whom a Mormon from the NE who pays less taxes pro rata than they do is a problem.

And there's overlap between the groups, of course.

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:33 pm

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:So maybe it is a wash all the way around, with Paul's voters either being people who wouldn't otherwise vote, or being roughly split between the other two if it were a two man race.

I believe that this is the most likely. Paul's support is largely self-contained, although I expect there are some tea partiers there who would go for another TP candidate if he dropped out.

Post by **Lalaith** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:09 am

You all know that I don't follow these things closely. (Okay, okay, I hate politics with a purple passion.) All in all, though, I still rather like Ron Paul.

I took this quiz:

http://www.selectsmart.com/president/

I'd be interested in your thoughts and/or results. I'd like to see how accurate it is for those of you who do like politics and actually follow these issues closely.

I thought my results were interesting. Here they are when I said that I wanted actual candidates:

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)

2. Ron Paul* (81%)

3. Robby Wells* (70%)

4. Mitt Romney* (55%)

5. Rick Santorum* (55%)

6. Barack Obama* (54%)

7. Gary Johnson* (54%)

8. Jon Huntsman (52%)

9. Newt Gingrich* (51%)

(It goes on from there.)

Here they are when I said that I didn't care:

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)

2. Ron Paul* (78%)

3. Robby Wells* (65%)

4. Jon Huntsman (61%)

5. Mitt Romney* (47%)

6. Rick Santorum* (47%)

7. Barack Obama* (47%)

What's particularly interesting to me is how closely it scores Obama, Romney, and Santorum. It probably explains why I don't jump on the anti-Obama bandwagon many of my friends jump on. It's just that I have certain issues that I value over others, and Obama doesn't tend to align with those. Other than those, however, I don't really dislike the guy.

Post by **JewelSong** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:17 am

Well, here's mine. I am only putting in the top 10...and this is for any candidates. Guess I know who I'm voting for...

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)

2. Barack Obama* (92%)

3. Joseph Biden (88%)

4. Michael Bloomberg (43%)

5. Gary Johnson* (35%)

6. Ron Paul* (29%)

7. Mike Huckabee (28%)

8. Buddy Roemer* (28%)

9. Jon Huntsman (25%)

10. Robby Wells* (21%)

Post by **Lalaith** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:28 am

And are you surprised by any of those results, or do they coincide with what you already knew/thought?

Post by **JewelSong** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:34 am

I'm surprised there was such a wide gap between Obama/Biden and the next guy, Bloomberg (whom I know nothing about.)

It is also scary to me that only one set of candidates comes close to what I'd like to see being done. It means that MOST candidates are running on platforms and with opinions/policies that I find abhorrent.

Post by **SirDennis** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:53 am

No surprises here (especially on the tail end!)

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100 %)
2. Barack Obama* (94 %)
3. Joseph Biden (90 %)
4. Ron Paul* (36 %)
5. Michael Bloomberg (35 %)
6. Mike Huckabee (34 %)
7. Jon Huntsman (29 %)
8. Gary Johnson* (28 %)
9. Buddy Roemer* (25 %)
10. Robby Wells* (21 %)
11. Bobby Jindal (19 %)
12. Donald Trump (15 %)
13. Rob Portman (14 %)
14. Wayne Allyn Root (14 %)
15. Tim Pawlenty (11 %)
16. Herman Cain (11 %)
17. Rick Perry (10 %)
18. Newt Gingrich* (7 %)
19. Mitt Romney* (6 %)
20. Sarah Palin (5 %)
21. Mitch Daniels (4 %)
22. Rick Santorum* (2 %)
23. Michele Bachmann (2 %)

Hmmm I don't think I've ever come as close to matching a candidate 100% as I have here with Obama. We have vote predictor thingies like this in Canada but the results are given along party lines rather than for individuals. If you guys are crazy enough not to give him a second term I hope he would consider coming north to help run our country.

Post by **axordil** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:17 am

I refuse to participate unless they put Stephen Colbert in.

Post by **River** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 5:28 am

If Colbert runs I might not be able to vote for Obama...

Anyway, my results, weighted towards actual candidates. You may all act surprised.

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)
2. Barack Obama* (95%)
3. Joseph Biden (81%)
4. Ron Paul* (40%)
5. Michael Bloomberg (40%)
6. Gary Johnson* (33%)
7. Buddy Roemer* (30%)
8. Robby Wells* (29%)
9. Mike Huckabee (26%)
10. Jon Huntsman (24%)
11. Mitt Romney* (20%)
12. Newt Gingrich* (16%)
13. Wayne Allyn Root (15%)
14. Rick Santorum* (13%)
15. Bobby Jindal (12%)
16. Rob Portman (12%)
17. Donald Trump (10%)
18. Tim Pawlenty (9%)
19. Herman Cain (8%)
20. Mitch Daniels (7%)
21. Rick Perry (6%)
22. Sarah Palin (3%)
23. Michele Bachmann (1%)

Post by **CosmicBob** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:56 am

Here's my score:

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)
2. Barack Obama* (94%)
3. Joseph Biden (94%)
4. Michael Bloomberg (47%)
5. Ron Paul* (31%)
6. Mike Huckabee (31%)
7. Jon Huntsman (29%)
8. Gary Johnson* (22%)
9. Wayne Allyn Root (22%)
10. Robby Wells* (20%)
11. Buddy Roemer* (17%)
12. Bobby Jindal (17%)
13. Rob Portman (17%)
14. Donald Trump (13%)
15. Tim Pawlenty (12%)
16. Mitch Daniels (10%)
17. Mitt Romney* (9%)
18. Rick Perry (7%)
19. Newt Gingrich* (5%)
20. Sarah Palin (4%)
21. Herman Cain (3%)
22. Rick Santorum* (2%)
23. Michele Bachmann (2%)

No big surprises, though I thought Paul might score a little higher.

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:30 am

Whoa.

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100 %)
2. Barack Obama* (94 %)
3. Joseph Biden (91 %)
4. Michael Bloomberg (47 %)
5. Ron Paul* (26 %)
6. Mike Huckabee (26 %)
7. Jon Huntsman (21 %)
8. Gary Johnson* (19 %)
9. Wayne Allyn Root (19 %)
10. Robby Wells* (17 %)

Hmmmmm.

My choices are pretty limited, I guess. But I also guess I knew that. That Paul and Huckabee placed that high surprises me a bit. Both hold at least some positions that are absolute dealbreakers for me.

Post by **Frelga** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:33 am

Bunch of commies.

Actually, a different quiz gave me Obama at 57% followed by Huntsman at 43% or something like that. I am surprised how high a match Obama is in this one. Also surprised that the only other Democrate is Biden. Why not Clinton?

I like Paul in Congress. As a potential President, I consider some of his opinions detrimental to the good of the country, and I am wary of his rigid ideological stance.

Also, Colbert/ Stewart is my dream ticket, second only to Vetinari/Von Lipwig*.

Weighed toward the candidates:

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)

2. Barack Obama* (92%)

3. Joseph Biden (80%)

4. Michael Bloomberg (54%)

5. Ron Paul* (43%)

6. Gary Johnson* (39%)

7. Buddy Roemer* (35%)

8. Jon Huntsman (34%)

9. Mitt Romney* (30%)

10. Mike Huckabee (29%)

11. Newt Gingrich* (28%)

12. Robby Wells* (28%)

13. Rick Santorum* (25%)

14. Rob Portman (17%)

15. Tim Pawlenty (17%)

16. Wayne Allyn Root (16%)

17. Mitch Daniels (16%)

18. Donald Trump (15%)

19. Bobby Jindal (13%)

20. Rick Perry (13%)

21. Herman Cain (8%)

22. Sarah Palin (8%)

23. Michele Bachmann (7%)

Post by **Frelga** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:35 am

P.S.: I am curious why Paul's ratings span a relatively wide range for people with similarly high rating for Obama.

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:42 am

My guess: his support for ending the wars, drug and otherwise. But for me it ends right there.

Post by **Lurker** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:24 am

I tried the quiz and hmmm...I am for Mitt Romney seems like I'm a true blue conservative.

I'm fine with the turn out, no Obama on my list.

If only NJ Governor Chris Christie was running...sigh...

Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)
2. Rick Santorum* (76%)
3. Mitt Romney* (74%)
4. Newt Gingrich* (71%)
5. Sarah Palin (62%)
6. Bobby Jindal (61%)
7. Mike Huckabee (56%)
8. Ron Paul* (54%)
9. Michele Bachmann (52%)
10. Rick Perry (50%)
11. Herman Cain (50%)
12. Rob Portman (47%)
13. Robby Wells* (45%)
14. Tim Pawlenty (45%)
15. Buddy Roemer* (41%)
16. Mitch Daniels (38%)
17. Wayne Allyn Root

How come Donald Trump is not on my list....

Post by **yovargas** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:32 am

I tend to be pretty wishy-washy when it comes to almost any economic issues so most of those questions ended up being Neither/Low for me but here are my results:

1. Ideal Theoretical Candidate (100%)
2. Barack Obama* (77%)
3. Joseph Biden (72%)
4. Ron Paul* (62%)
5. Gary Johnson* (53%)
6. Michael Bloomberg (53%)
7. Wayne Allyn Root (46%)
8. Robby Wells* (35%)
9. Jon Huntsman (32%)
10. Rob Portman (25%)

Post by **Lurker** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:45 am

SirDennis wrote:Hmmm I don't think I've ever come as close to matching a candidate 100% as I have here with Obama. We have vote predictor thingies like this in Canada but the results are given along party lines rather than for individuals. If you guys are crazy enough not to give him a second term I hope he would consider coming north to help run our country.

Please.... NO....please....I like the my home and native land as it is. If it ain't broken don't fix it. We don't need more unemployment and debt.

Well maybe he could be the next Mayor of Toronto, way better than what they have right now.

Post by **Dave_LF** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:40 pm

So Gingrch won South Carolina, and I've never seen InTrade give Obama better odds.

Post by **axordil** » Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:54 pm

Dave_LF wrote:So Gingrch won South Carolina, and I've never seen InTrade give Obama better odds.

Now it's a question of how long Santorum decides to stay in. The endorsement from the "Christian Right Leadership" meeting before the primary didn't give him enough of a boost to come in second, and he doesn't have Newt's fundraising connections. He's like Huckabee without the folksy appeal. Unless he can pull a rabbit out of a hat in Florida he's out.

Sun Jan 22, 2012 4:15 pm

Primula Baggins wrote:Hmmmmm. My choices are pretty limited, I guess. But I also guess I knew that. That Paul and Huckabee placed that high surprises me a bit. Both hold at least some positions that are absolute dealbreakers for me.

That goes to show why - to me at least - these types of tests are an utter and complete waste of time. I'm sure if I took it which, which I never will, it would show Paul with a much a higher rating than it should. Since it is unlikely to take into account that he is an utter absolute racist who's policies would set back this country centuries.