2020 Election: Predictions, Results and Reactions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The latest is that the radio host attorney has sent a letter to the clerk of the Third Circuit asking they not only schedule oral argument, but allow Rudy to handle it, despite the fact that the court put out an order saying that they would not allow anyone who was not certified with that court to make an appearance in the case unless the attorney goes through the certification process first (which is not onerous). Scaringi (the radio host attorney) claims that Giuliani could not get certified "due to Covid-19 complications with government entities in New York" (whatever that means). The letter is just over 2 pages long, and almost a full page is covered with nonsensical footnotes (I like using footnotes, but this is ridiculous).

I have to agree with one of the commenters on Brad Heath's twitter feed:

For the sake of the country and the legal system, they shouldn't allow it. For the sake of my entertainment, though...

[RoseMorninStar]

Comments such as that need to be heard by the general public V. I doubt they will make it onto OAN, NewsMax, or FOX. It's intentional mass delusion through propaganda by the unscrupulous.

Van Langevelde seems to be a person of character. I wonder if recent events have given him pause. Disillusionment can hit hard.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Comments such as what? That it would be entertaining to listen to Giuliani make a fool of himself on oral argument? I'm not sure I understand what you are saying.

[RoseMorninStar]

Oh, I'm sorry V. I was referring to an attachment in your previous post on the last page. The one which begins with:

From a group of law professors who have filed an amicus (friend of the court) brief in the Pennsylvania case (sorry, no Monty Python)

For some reason it didn't show me your most recent post before I posted.

[River]

It's been days. I'm this close to joining Twitter just so I can message @popehat and ask why his handle is SerbianCommunistHat.

[RoseMorninStar]

It's been days. I'm this close to joining Twitter just so I can message @popehat and ask why his handle is SerbianCommunistHat.

Could it have something to do with this: Šajkača – the Serbian Folk Cap

[N.E. Brigand]

It's been days. I'm this close to joining Twitter just so I can message @popehat and ask why his handle is SerbianCommunistHat.

Most of the time, I know automatically what each of his new monikers refer to (which surely shows that I pay far too much attention to the news), but like you, I was stumped by that particular change. A new episode of the All the President's Lawyers podcast was released at about the same time, which I have yet to listen to, and maybe the answer was revealed there. I think I mentioned before that I did exchange emails with him a few months ago, when I let him know that there had been a ruling by the appeals court in Stormy Daniels's defamation lawsuit against Donald Trump (the ruling went in Trump's favor). He thanked me for pointing that out, saying that he hadn't noticed that, and the news did come up briefly in the next ATPL episode.

[N.E. Brigand]

It's been days. I'm this close to joining Twitter just so I can message @popehat and ask why his handle is SerbianCommunistHat.

Could it have something to do with this: Šajkača – the Serbian Folk Cap

My guess would be no. The "hat" is always part of his name. It's the rest that changes, based on the news. So right now he's HatKnowsCrooksReallyWell, because earlier today, Rudy Giuliani said, "I know crooks really well".

[Frelga]

The level of self-own in that bunch is amazing.

[River]

It's been days. I'm this close to joining Twitter just so I can message @popehat and ask why his handle is SerbianCommunistHat.

Could it have something to do with this: Šajkača – the Serbian Folk Cap

Unlikely, for reasons NEB stated, but it would be amusing if that particular head gear was involved since I've never seen anyone wearing it for any purpose other than performing music or dance. Seriously, despite the tone of that article, I don't think I've ever seen one "in the wild" in Serbia. Not even out in the sticks. Or in the sticks of Republika Srpska, for that matter. But everyone's got one in a drawer somewhere...

off-topic: I've read parts of the book that was pulled from BTW. It's hilarious because it's true.

[RoseMorninStar]

Perhaps this then: Thousands Turn Out to Mourn Serbia's Patriarch, Despite COVID-19 Surge

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Republicans finally found a judge wacky enough to go along with them, though this won't stand for long.

Pennsylvania Slams Judge’s ‘Overreach’ in Certification Ruling

[Túrin Turambar]

Enough results are in now for the NYT's election map to be basically complete. To me, the most interesting map by far is the county-by-data on the swings from 2016.

These counties (or equivalent) swung to Trump:
- Most strongly, heavily-Hispanic counties in southern Florida and along the Mexican border. Starr County, TX, had the biggest swing of any county, going 55 points more Republican than in 2016.
- Most counties in Utah and southern Idaho, which I assume had a high vote for Evan McMullin in 2016. Most of those voters seem to have come home to the GOP.
- Most counties in Arkansas, perhaps because Hillary Clinton had some home state benefit there.
- A big swag of rural counties through the outer south, Appalachia, and the lower Midwest, particularly in Iowa, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
- A few big cities, like LA, showed a small swing to Trump - perhaps on his improved Black and Latino vote.

These counties or county-equivalents went more strongly to Biden than they did to Clinton in 2016:
- The entire Northeast down into Virginia, outside of some small swings to Trump in northern Maine and the broader NYC Metro area.
- The Upper Midwest, particularly in the cities, but also in many rural counties in MI, MN and WI as well.
- The western half of the country, outside the swings to Trump already mentioned, and some other small swings to Trump in prairie counties.
- A few counties in the rural south.
- Colorado, strongly.
- Perhaps most strikingly, Sun Belt cities. This obviously delivered AZ and GA, but you can see the big swings in TX as well.

[N.E. Brigand]

Enough results are in now for the NYT's election map to be basically complete. To me, the most interesting map by far is the county-by-data on the swings from 2016.
[...]
These counties (or equivalent) swung to Trump:
- Most strongly, heavily-Hispanic counties in southern Florida and along the Mexican border. Starr County, TX, had the biggest swing of any county, going 55 points more Republican than in 2016.

And yet I haven't seen any Democrats claiming that such a swing is mathematically impossible and must therefore represent Republican election fraud.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Third Circuit of the Court of Appeals resoundingly rejects the Trump Campaign's appeal in the Pennsylvania case. Resoundingly.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/document ... document-1

[N.E. Brigand]

Third Circuit of the Court of Appeals resoundingly rejects the Trump Campaign's appeal in the Pennsylvania case. Resoundingly.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/document ... document-1

And the judge who wrote the opinion rejecting the Trump campaign's claims is a Trump appointee.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And the other two judges on the panel were also appointed by Republicans. Yet that did not stop Jenna Ellis (explicitly on behalf of herself and Giuliani) to tweet: "The activist judicial machinery in Pennsylvania continues to cover the allegations of massive fraud. ... ON TO SCOTUS."

The appeal to the Third Circuit was mandatory. The Supreme Court, of course, does not have to grant certiorari. It would be almost unheard of for them to review a decision rejecting leave to amend (which is what this really comes down to, although the panel also goes on to excoriate the claims that the campaign tried to make).

[Frelga]

All they want is to get to SCOTUS. Is there anything to stop the majority there to make up whatever bullshit they want?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes.

[Frelga]

What?