2020 Presidential Election

[Primula Baggins]

I'm not sure I see a functioning future United States if Trump is elected again. It is possible. It happened all over Europe less than a century ago and is starting to happen there again. Even if we don't go the full Hitler route, I think it's possible we'll have an economy so broken that we become a client state of Russia and will never again have a free and fair election.

Trump couldn't do this, but his puppet masters could.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

For me, it's not about the "middle" per say. It's about someone who can think and act outside of party ideology. About actual indepence. Someone who, for example, supported a border wall (a typically right idea) and also supported single payer health care (a typically left idea) is likely a true independent. I don't know if they would be considered "middle". The term is somewhat meaningless if you are a true independent.

I recognize that this is just an example to give an example, but the fact of the matter is that there is incredibly tiny percentage of people that would support both a border wall in the sense that Mr. Trump talks about (a big beautiful wall across the entirety of the southern border, as opposed to some strategic border fencing as part of a holistic border security strategy, which a vast majority of people support) and single payer health care. In my opinion, based on the observations that I have made, the truth is that -- unlikely the example of people here like yov and Griffy -- the vast majority of people in the U.S. who are "independent" as opposed to "partisan" simply are not very interested in or caring about politics or public policy.

[yovargas]

I'm not sure I see a functioning future United States if Trump is elected again.

I hate Trump a lot and think he is doing a great deal of harm, but I find this absurdly hyperbolic.

[yovargas]

I recognize that this is just an example to give an example, but the fact of the matter is that there is incredibly tiny percentage of people that would support both a border wall in the sense that Mr. Trump talks about (a big beautiful wall across the entirety of the southern border, as opposed to some strategic border fencing as part of a holistic border security strategy, which a vast majority of people support) and single payer health care.

And I think this isn't because of some natural sorting of philosophical viewpoints but because our two party system forces everyone to believe that this is just how things naturally are. My BIL, for example, is a life long conservative who has always voted Republican but he also is quite worried about the environment and thinks we should take climate change more seriously. If people could think independently, without the influence of party affiliations, I see no reason there wouldn't be a lot more people like him.

[Impenitent]

I'm not sure I see a functioning future United States if Trump is elected again.

I hate Trump a lot and think he is doing a great deal of harm, but I find this absurdly hyperbolic.

Reminiscent of "Hah! Not gonna happen. There's no way Americans are gonna get sucked in by him."

Sent from a tiny phone keyboard via Tapatalk - typos inevitable.

[Primula Baggins]

I still think it’s unlikely. But I now believe it could happen, whereas even right after Trump won I would have taken yov’s line.

He’s an idiot. But he’s not the one making the important decisions, or even (sometimes) deciding what he wants to tweet about. He’s easily manipulated, easily intimidated, easily blackmailed, easily bought. And he can’t be removed from office.

I do think that’s a dangerous situation.

[yovargas]

But we still have strong, functional checks and balances to prevent a president from going wildly out of line in the form of Congress and the courts and the need to keep voters happy. And Trump has shown that he is aware those checks are there and knows they will smack him down if he goes too far.

[Frelga]

No we don't. Thank you, McConnell.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes,we do. Thanks, Madame Speaker.

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Primula Baggins]

Yes, there are some avenues open that weren't before; I echo your thanks, Voronwë.

However, although I don't think the current Supreme Court would rule corruptly in Trump's favor (Chief Justice Roberts wouldn't let it happen), this administration and the Senate have almost two years during which they might be able to confirm another ultraconservative or two, which would do it. And although impeachment is now possible, removal from office is out of reach. Even if it becomes obviously urgent and necessary, I'm betting it still won't be possible—unless the views of Republicans in the Senate change (and what we've seen from Trump so far has only affected the opinions of blue state Republican senators).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

For what it is worth, Nate Silver thinks that "it’s about equally likely that Schultz will hurt or help Trump."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... attention/

ETA: Apropos Frelga's question about what a centrist is, here is an interesting article referred to in that 538 chat: https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-factio ... -moderates

ETAA: I am not fundamentally opposed to supporting an independent candidate for president; I did so in 1980 when I thought that John Anderson was the best candidate for the job. Howard Schultz is most definitely not that person.

[Frelga]

You wanna bet the future of democracy, rule of law, and countless lives on fifty/fifty?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The more I look at it and think about, the more I think a Schultz independent bid (which in the end almost certainly won't even happen), would not make it more likely that Trump would win. I think there ultimately would be very few people who would otherwise vote for the Democratic candidate (particularly a progressive one) over Trump who will vote for an egomaniacal fiscal conservative like Schultz.

[Frelga]

The same Bernie boys who voted for Trump over Clinton will vote for Schultz over Harris. And for the same reasons.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

No they won't. They'll vote for Trump.

[Frelga]

Only in the sense that any vote that is not for a Democratic candidate is a vote for Trump. Schultz will be more socially acceptable. They will be able to say they were just so very impressed by his proposed policies.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

No they won't. I guarantee that if he runs he will get very few votes. He is not appealing, even in the unfathomable way that Mr. Trump is appealing.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Cory Booker.

At this point it would be bigger news for someone to announce that they are NOT running for president.

[Maria]

I'm not running for president!

[yovargas]

You've got my vote!