2020 Presidential Election

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Even though Sanders has twice now run for the Democratic nomination for president, he refuses to become a Democrat, and unlike Elizabeth Warren has generally declined to work with the DNC to support other Democrats. He didn't use his leftover funds to help other candidates in 2016 and I don't expect him to do so this time.

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[RoseMorninStar]

I wonder why he doesn't run as a 3rd party candidate. I think it would be good for us to have more than 2 parties.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Have cake,
Eat it too.

[Túrin Turambar]

I wonder why he doesn't run as a 3rd party candidate.

It would pretty much guarantee a second Trump term.

[yovargas]

Out of curiosity, did anyone watch last night's debate?
(I did not.)

[Cerin]

I wasn't able to watch, so I'd love to hear the impressions of those who did.

The several articles I read this morning all agreed that Warren was the main target of the other candidates, and that Buttigieg and Klobuchar were more aggressive in attacking her policies than in previous appearances (this was presented as a positive for them).

One of the articles said Biden stumbled through his responses and was not in the forefront of the debate. The same article noted that he only has $9 million on hand, which is lower than Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris. That seems like a bad sign for him, since he started out as the favorite of corporate donors.

I was most interested in hearing how Biden did. I'm curious about where the conservative side of the party will turn if Biden falters, and how bad his performances (referring to debates and campaign appearances) will have to get before they let go of the idea that he is the preferred candidate. If Klobuchar were registering more with voters, maybe she could be the one to take Biden's place with the donors who have said they will not support Warren.

[Cerin]

This CNBC article says that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (77) might get into the race if Biden drops out before voting begins. I don't know much about Bloomberg, his popularity, how he would match up against Trump or what sort of splash he might make in the Democratic pool.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/bloombe ... arren.html

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I saw that too. But Bloomberg has been threatening to run for president off an on pretty much since he left office as New York Mayor (after manipulating the rules to allow him to run for an extra term) in 2013. He is the 12th richest man in the U.S. I am very confident that he is not what the Democratic electorate is looking for right now. Of course he could stir the pot by running as an independent, but I haven't heard any indication that he has any intention of doing so, and I'm sure that he is smart enough to know that would be a good way to ensure Trump wins reelection, and by all accounts he does not want that to happen.

[Cerin]

Yes, I feel fairly sure that there is no known potential candidate obtuse enough to run as a 3rd party candidate this time around.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Well, Howard Schultz was making noise like he was obtuse enough. I suspect he backed off more because it was becoming apparent that no one wanted to vote for him than because he came to his senses.

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[yovargas]

While the September debate — the first one-night event — was watched by about 15.3 million viewers, preliminary ratings indicate that this debate drew just over half of that, a mere 8.3 million people.

Hard to argue these debates matter if nobody is really tuning in.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I wonder why it went down so much from September to October? Is it because the impeachment inquiry? Is it because there were 12 candidates this time, instead of 10? Hmmmm?

I have to admit, I haven't watched any of the debates so far. I just can't bring myself to do so. Maybe once the field gets whittled down to a reasonable number, although even then, I don't really see much point. I know who I plan to vote for in the California primary, and I will certainly be voting for the eventual Democratic nominee in the general election.

[elengil]

Hard to argue these debates matter if nobody is really tuning in.

Because people will read a condensed version of the highlights in the news - or listen to it anyway - and come away with whatever interpretation they were 'meant' to based on the way the soundbites were clipped or the headlines were worded...

[Frelga]

I wish the media stopped covering debates in terms of "winners" and "losers" and started covering objective differences in policy proposals. Then we might actually *hear* some policy proposals.

I caught about 10 minutes of Buttigieg vs. Gabbard on NPR, which made me very happy that Gabbard doesn't appear to have a chance.

[Cerin]

I would guess curiosity about the candidates was somewhat of a factor in the larger viewership of the first debate, but now people know what they're like and their position on the spectrum, so the motivation to endure the tedium involved is lessened. Maybe when the number of candidates is fewer and the answers thus bound to be more substantive, people will become interested again.

edit: grammar

[Inanna]

I would guess curiosity about the candidates was somewhat of a factor in the larger viewership of the first debate, but now people know what they're like and their position on the spectrum, so the motivation to endure the tedium involved is lessened. Maybe when the number of candidates is fewer and the answers thus bound to be more substantive, people will become interested again.

edit: grammar

Yes, that sounds reasonable.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Didn't see this coming.

CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April

[Alatar]

Thank God!

[Túrin Turambar]

Didn't see this coming.

CNN Poll: Biden's lead in Democratic primary hits widest margin since April

It's still only a single poll and until we have a few more there's good reason to think it's an outlier. I prefer to follow polling averages rather than single polls to see if there's a trend.

(It is good to have outliers, though, as they suggest the polling companies aren't 'herding' and are publishing whatever data they get - statistically you'd expect variation)

That said, based on the poll aggregators, Warren has peaked and Sanders is starting to climb again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwid ... al_polling

[yovargas]

I've been a bit surprised that Biden's many little gaffes seem to have had very little impact on his support. They're mostly small things but it feels like he comes off looking foolish too damn often and that would be a major liability when he's put under the closer scrutiny of the general election.