2020 Presidential Election

[yovargas]

That doesn't make any sense to me. Why would the party leaders push so much against RvW if the actual voters of the party are split on it? I get that the most hardcore base tends to be extremely passionate about the issue but surely if those people are in the minority of their voters, they wouldn't spend so much energy catering to them?

[Dave_LF]

If it mattered what the majority wanted, we'd have universal health care and gun control, and Hilary Clinton would be president.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That doesn't make any sense to me. Why would the party leaders push so much against RvW if the actual voters of the party are split on it? I get that the most hardcore base tends to be extremely passionate about the issue but surely if those people are in the minority of their voters, they wouldn't spend so much energy catering to them?

Based on both of those polls, it is roughly 50/50, with the half in favor of overturning Roe being the ones that are more likely to vote and donate.

[Frelga]

Possibly the geographical location of the anti vote is concentrated in the areas where Republicans need their support. The anti vote seems to be a very active group. I might have respected their commitment if they were also not actively against all policies that reduce the need for abortion.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yup

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[yovargas]

The lineups for the first major Democratic debates have been announced!! Are you totally super excited??

Untitled.jpg (24.14 KiB) Viewed 5037 times

Part of me wants to act all, like, cynically detached from it all for various reasons, but I can't deny that I'm pretty darn interested to see how this all plays out. There's a lot of unusual candidates running and it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out once the campaigns really get going. Unless Boring Biden just coasts on his lead the whole way through which would be, well, boring.

[Frelga]

Warren is the Hermione of this candidate class. The more I learn about her the more enthusiastic I get.

[yovargas]

I'm rooting for her too so I was glad to see that the lineup, which was semi-randomly generated put her next to a bunch of much smaller names. Hoping that gives her a chance to stand out more. Though with these things you never really know.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

It's really unfortunate that there are so many candidates running that have absolutely no chance of winning, which is required the random draw for who participates in which day's debate. Because the DNC wanted to avoid the appearance of a "kiddie table" debate like the RNC had last time around, they used a random draw to determine who appears which day. As it turned out, most of the major candidates are in the second days debate, with Warren appearing the first day. It is utterly ridiculous that she is not part of the same debate as Biden and Sanders (and Buttigieg, if you believe polls that put him in the top tier). They should have upped the standards for who could qualify for debates and limited it to no more than ten candidates, all of whom could appear on one stage.

IMHO, of course.

Meanwhile, I just saw an interesting article comparing and contrasting Warren to Hillary Clinton. I tend to think that Hillary gets a bit of bum rap, but I largely to agree with it.

Elizabeth Warren isn’t Hillary Clinton

x-posted with yov. For what it is worth: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/ ... rs-1365629

[Cerin]

I didn't realize that's what they'd come up with for the debates. Last I heard, they were doing the threshold thing and only those with a certain polling number would participate. It does seem unfortunate that Warren won't be in the same debate as Sanders and Biden. On the other hand, she should be able to make mincemeat of her group, and this way she won't have to worry about making herself look progressive next to Sanders. Perhaps it's for the best.

Warren is nothing like Clinton, imo, other than their both being female.

[yovargas]

Yeah, it seems like a toss-up I have to whether it'll be good for her or not. Maybe she'll get less attention for being in the smaller debate, or maybe she'll get more attention for having most of the attention to herself. It will probably be a wash in the end unless something really notable happens.

[River]

Warren and Clinton are both wonkish white women with law degrees. The similarities end there.

Warren will mop the floor with her current group and face off with someone more worthy of her talents in the next round.

[Alatar]

I'm hoping Biden comes through because boring or not, I still think he has the best chance to beat Trump. And that, IMO is the only thing that matters.

[Cerin]

I think Biden will drop out before any votes are cast.

Imo, he's really not up to the job and he knows it.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That's quite a remarkable statement. Biden is not my first choice, nor my second, nor my third, but I see no evidence that he "not up to the job" (particularly in comparison to the present occupant of the White House), and even less that he himself believes that he is not "up to the job." Why would he go through such a long extended process of deciding whether to run in this election after not running in the last because of the tragedy of losing his son, if he believed he was not up to the job. It makes no sense. Upon what evidence do you make such a remarkable statement?

[Cerin]

It's just an opinion, an impression, nothing more. If you think it's out of line, I will be happy to delete.

edit

Thunderstorm has blown over, so I will try to address your comments more substantively. I don't think Biden would have run last time, aside from the death of his son, because he wouldn't have wanted to take on the Clintons, especially when it was viewed by many as being her turn. He doesn't have that obstacle this time; perhaps he thinks it's finally his turn. From what I've read, it's mostly indignation over Trump that has propelled him into the campaign. It's also possible he sees himself as the only Democratic candidate representing the old order, to which he wants to return.

Why do I think he isn't up to the job? Biden hasn't, to my knowledge, demonstrated leadership ability during a long career in politics. He enjoys the schmoozing aspect of the game, but he isn't an original thinker nor especially gifted, committed or brilliant, as some of the other contenders are, imo. (Of course, compared to Trump, most anyone is going to look good, but I'd argue that shouldn't be our standard.) Why do I think he knows he isn't up to the job? If I'm right, and he really isn't suited to be President, then there must be a feeling of dread deep down, as when one is unprepared for a final exam, which will come more to the fore as the campaign progresses, gets gritty and requires more from him than fundraising dinners and nostalgic vagueries.

[Alatar]

I have to say I agree with Voronwë. There's absolutely no reason to hold this opinion this other than as justification that "insert your preferred candidate here" is a better choice.

Again, I still think the most important job the democratic candidate has to fulfil is beating Trump. Everything else is secondary. Biden will appeal to the undecided center, therefore he's the ideal choice.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Not out of line; I just completely disagree.

[Cerin]

I feel so positive this morning about the chances of beating Trump, as I recall that none of the Democratic candidates is going to have the unfavorable rating that Clinton had! Plus, being more familiar with Trump now, the nominee will surely come up with a plan to deal with his lying, plus Trump has a percentage that he never gets above. I don't see how the Dems can lose unless there is voter suppression/electronic hacking beyond anything we've seen thus far.

edit

Or, unless a Perot-like figure emerges.

[River]

I think Schultz wants to be that Perot-like figure. I've certainly heard him compared to Perot. But no one's falling for it. You're allowed to learn from mistakes, even if they were made by someone else.

So remember a week or two ago when Trump campaign internal polling numbers leaked and were reportedly grim (I never actually saw the numbers, but the reactions were all over the internet). Well the Trump campaign responded by firing the pollsters and calling them liars. And now Trump's kicking off his campaign for reals by, among other things, ordering mass arrests.

It's going to be a "fun" 18 months.