2020 Presidential Election

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Buttigieg is an impressive young man,but honestly, he had no business running for president.

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[River]

So I'm a little creeped out when someone refers to someone my age as an impressive young anything. I've got grey streaks in my hair. I have a marriage and two children and a house and a car. I've got my name on a laboratory door. I had to get one of my gums surgically put back in place because it started falling off for no good reason. I've got a frickin' retirement account. How many more adulthood rites are there to pass for pete's sake??

[RoseMorninStar]

For Pete's sake. He's a brilliant young man. VP material perhaps?

[elengil]

Always one more, River. Always one more.

[River]

Or some other high-level office. Trying to jump from mayor to POTUS was a bit of a stretch but mayor to Congressional delegation or a state level office (Governor or some such) makes sense.

x-posted with elengil: those darn moving goalposts... It took me until this year to realize that one of the biggest reasons my boss was having such a hard time taking me seriously is I'm the same age as his daughter. Who also has kids of her own. But when I'm in the room he's got competition for The Smartest One and that caused problems. A couple legit scientific sparring matches sorted him out.

[Inanna]

Age is relative. When everyone else is 70+, 40s are going to be “young”

[Voronwë the Faithful]

River, you are an impressive young woman.

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[Frelga]

Is Biden now the youngest male candidate?

River I would support you for Surgeon General.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Is Biden now the youngest male candidate?

Yup.

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[River]

Is Biden now the youngest male candidate?

River I would support you for Surgeon General.

Except I'm not the kind of doctor that helps people.

[Frelga]

Wait no, Trump is younger than Biden.

River I would support you for Surgeon General.

Except I'm not the kind of doctor that helps people. [/quote]

Well, you are, just not the one that helps by treating them. Secretary of Health and Human Services, then?

[River]

How about of of the spiffy science panels?

[narya]

My definition of "old" is someone at least 10 year older than me. It is definitely a moving target, and has been all my life. On the other hand, college-aged people just keep get younger and younger looking every year. It is hard to believe most of them are teenagers, including all those college athletes, and some extremely proficient a capella singers from Berklee School of Music I went to see the other night.

I do get miffed when someone calls my 1950s era Singer sewing machine "ancient", as we were both manufactured about the same year, and the sewing machine has aged more gracefully than I have.

As of last September, the ages of the wannabes are:
Pete 37
Tulsi 38
Amy 59
Elizabeth 70
73
Joe 76
Bernie 78

I am concerned about having "old" people in the White House. I know how much harder life is for me in my 60s and observed first hand with my parents how much harder it was for them in their 80s, than for those spring chickens in their 30s and 40s. In 8 years, Bernie will be 86, Joe with be 84.

About 20-30% of people in their mid-80s have dementia. Ronald Regan was 78 when he left office, and although his Alzheimer's wasn't announced publicly until he was 83, his son remarked that he could see signs of it when he was 73 - still in his first term of office.

[elengil]

River I would support you for Surgeon General.

Except I'm not the kind of doctor that helps people.

That reminds me of a quote from this show:

D: I'm not a doctor, I'm a medic.
C: What's the difference?
D: A doctor cures people. A medic just makes them more comfortable. While they die.

My definition of "old" is someone at least 10 year older than me. It is definitely a moving target, and has been all my life.

I don't believe I've ever put a number on it, but I've always felt that "My parents aren't old, so nobody younger than them is allowed to be, either."

They're 78 and 77 currently. But ... they are starting to show their age. Just little things yet, but enough to make me nervous. I'm only 43, totally not ready to live without my parents yet.

[yovargas]

Pretty surprised that Pete dropped out before Amy K. Wonder why she's still hanging on?
(And apparently Tulsi is still officially running??)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

While neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar had any realistic path forward, the difference between them is that Klobuchar is already a U.S. Senator and is unlikely to advance beyond that (I'd be surprised to see her run for president again, nor do I see her as a likely cabinet pick), while Buttigieg has many future options. So it makes sense for him to get out now rather than being perceived as being disruptive. The sole reason Klobuchar is hanging on is to enjoy the time in the spotlight while she can (even if doing so causes harm to the party, at least from her perspective, by making it more likely that Sanders is nominated). As for Tulsi, the less said the better.

Interestingly, the prime result of Buttigieg exit from the race on 538's forecast is to significantly increase the likelihood of there being no candidate winning a majority of delegates, which is now up to 65%, with the likelihood of Sanders winning a majority going down to 20%, just 6% higher than Biden's. That is because Buttigieg was not likely to get 15% of the vote in any Super Tuesday state or congressional district, and thus would not have gotten any delegates. However, his votes good boost Warren, Bloomberg and Biden over 15% in places where they were just under, meaning that the delegate distribution from tomorrows primaries are likely to be more spread out than they otherwise would have been, without Sanders getting much benefit.

[elengil]

I really should learn more about how these things work... when someone drops out of the race, what happens to whatever percentage of delegates they won up to that point? How are those numbers redistributed? Is it random? Is it just whoever they choose to support after that? It seems suddenly very bizarre to me that there is no ranked choice across the board to account for those who supported someone who later drops out.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

As I understand, those delegates pledged to a candidate who subsequently drops out (or technically, "suspends" their campaign) are still committed to vote for that candidate on the first ballot at the convention. If there is no majority on that ballot, they are then free to vote for a different candidate, presumably still in consultation with their original candidate.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

While neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar had any realistic path forward, the difference between them is that Klobuchar is already a U.S. Senator and is unlikely to advance beyond that (I'd be surprised to see her run for president again, nor do I see her as a likely cabinet pick), while Buttigieg has many future options. So it makes sense for him to get out now rather than being perceived as being disruptive. The sole reason Klobuchar is hanging on is to enjoy the time in the spotlight while she can (even if doing so causes harm to the party, at least from her perspective, by making it more likely that Sanders is nominated).

I guess she realized that hanging on was a mistake, because Klobuchar has now announced that she is leaving the field, too (and endorsed Biden). So (unless you include Tulsi) we are down to the septuagenarians.

[yovargas]

Wow. Maybe she's an HoF reader who takes your thoughts very seriously.

I'm very curious to see how the Steyer/Pete/Amy supporters get spread about. The thought is that most of them will jump to Biden, but I suspect they'll spread out mostly pretty evenly.