2020 Presidential Election
Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Yov, I actually think it’s relevant. I expect someone like that to be able to understand the institutional discrimination minorities can feel and work to rectify that.
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- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Very good news for Buttigieg if the results hold, although he took a risk in claiming victory before the declaration and the next few states aren't as good for him. Good news for Sanders too, as he's well ahead of the other frontrunners, much of Buttigieg's boost has come at Biden's expense, and he's still looking likely to win clearly in New Hampshire. Bad news for Biden, but he'll still probably win South Carolina and benefit from a 'comeback' narrative. But if Warren can't do better in New Hampshire she's in real trouble. The confusion over the results will muddy things, but I'm not sure how much it will matter after the first couple of primaries.
- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
I think Sanders is the real winner. I still don't see Buttigieg having much staying power. But Biden is definitely the big loser.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
I agree. I understand that Buttigieg put a disproportionate amount of resources into Iowa, presumably to try to get enough of a bounce to push him into top-tier. He won't have the same luxury in the other states, plus Iowa was very favourable for him geographically. And he almost certainly took most of his increased support from Biden, and Biden's loss is Sanders' gain. Buttigieg being competitive is in Sanders' best interests, just as Warren being competitive is in Biden's.Voronwë the Faithful wrote:I think Sanders is the real winner. I still don't see Buttigieg having much staying power. But Biden is definitely the big loser.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
The other big winner, of course, is Bloomberg. I'm not quite ready to go shopping for chocolate hats, but I think a lot of Biden supporters are wondering whether they should take a closer look at Bloomberg.
I think the chances of brokered convention has gone up.
I think the chances of brokered convention has gone up.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
I voted
Hidden text.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
By mail? I'm not ready to commit to that and not entirely confident that the ballots will be counted correctly. On the other hand, last year the machine that scanned paper votes was broken and everyone had to vote on the single make-a-choice machine, which took forever. At least it printed a paper receipt.
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- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Does Bloomberg have any path to the nomination, though? He didn't play in Iowa. He's unlikely to do well in New Hampshire, where Sanders is still looking likely to win pretty convincingly. Biden still seems to have South Carolina stitched up with his strong support among African-Americans, and I can't see them switching to Bloomberg. And while Nevada is competitive, it's hardly a good state for Bloomberg. At this stage, it's looking likely he'd be going into Super Tuesday having failed to make the top three in any state.Voronwë the Faithful wrote:The other big winner, of course, is Bloomberg. I'm not quite ready to go shopping for chocolate hats, but I think a lot of Biden supporters are wondering whether they should take a closer look at Bloomberg.
I think the chances of brokered convention has gone up.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
I think Bloomberg's only real path to the nomination is through a brokered convention.
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- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Yes, by mail. I've voted by mail for years. As Prim often reminded us, in Oregon all voting is done by mail, and they don't seem to have any issues.Frelga wrote:By mail? I'm not ready to commit to that and not entirely confident that the ballots will be counted correctly. On the other hand, last year the machine that scanned paper votes was broken and everyone had to vote on the single make-a-choice machine, which took forever. At least it printed a paper receipt.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Meanwhile, in Iowa (:roll:), with 97% of the vote counted, Buttigieg's lead over Sanders is down to 0.1%, 26.2% to 26.1%. The rest of the field is largely unchanged from the first released results.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Colorado also votes by mail. If you'd rather not trust the mail, or you're a procrastinator like me and didn't get your ballot filled out in time to be mailed, you can toss the ballot in a drop box. We don't seem to have issues with getting the ballots counted.
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- elengil
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Same with Washington - you can mail or you can put in the dropboxes. I don't believe we've ever had accusations of wide-spread uncounted, lost, altered, or otherwise mishandled ballots.
The dumbest thing I've ever bought
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
was a 2020 planner.
"Does anyone ever think about Denethor, the guy driven to madness by staying up late into the night alone in the dark staring at a flickering device he believed revealed unvarnished truth about the outside word, but which in fact showed mostly manipulated media created by a hostile power committed to portraying nothing but bad news framed in the worst possible way in order to sap hope, courage, and the will to go on? Seems like he's someone we should think about." - Dave_LF
- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
True - and the odds of that have definitely gone up.Voronwë the Faithful wrote:I think Bloomberg's only real path to the nomination is through a brokered convention.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
It's actually hard for me to see how any candidate has a path to the required number of delegates before the convention right now, though obviously things can (and likely will) change quickly.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Pete's gotta be pretty pissed about the whole Iowa thing. He basically ties for first place which should have been a huge boost for him as it should have been a big news event. Instead it's going to be a much more muted reaction, which negates a bunch of the only shot he really had.
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- Voronwë the Faithful
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
True enough, although I doubt it would have given him that much of a boost anyway. He doesn't have much appeal outside of the mid-west, and he is pretty strongly disliked in the African-American community that makes up large percentages of the Democratic electorate in many states, particularly in the South.
More and more I wish that Stacey Abrams had run.
More and more I wish that Stacey Abrams had run.
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- Túrin Turambar
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Both parties seem to have a remarkable knack for avoiding brokered conventions, even when they look likely early in the season. That said, stranger things have happened these past few election cycles.Voronwë the Faithful wrote:It's actually hard for me to see how any candidate has a path to the required number of delegates before the convention right now, though obviously things can (and likely will) change quickly.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
See, e.g., Trump, Donald John.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election
Poll: New Hampshire Democrats would prefer an extinction-causing meteor over Trump reelection
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"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."