Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Alatar]

From what I can tell, yes.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks, Al. What do you think about there being a 'do-over'?

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[Alatar]

What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.

What would be better for Ireland? That's a more tricky question. On the one hand, England are our closest trading partner so it will hurt us if they leave. On the other hand, we will be the only native English speaking country left in the EU, which is a very strong position. Also, it will almost certainly lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. So there's that.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Interesting. I'm glad to get your perspective!

Also, it will almost certainly lead to a referendum on the reunification of Ireland. So there's that.

Can you say more about why that is the case, and how you feel about it?

[Alatar]

So, if Brexit goes ahead, that will recreate a customs Border between the North and the Republic. That will inevitably lead to uniforms on the border and the rise of hostilities again. It would essentially scrap the Good Friday agreement. The North voted Remain in the Brexit Referendum and are essentially being removed from the EU against their will. They stand to lose a lot and gain very little in a Brexit arrangement. Also, the fact that the Tory Government is currently only in power with the support of the DUP in the North meant that the power sharing agreement is at serious risk. Unofficial polls show that there is already a majority willing to seek independence if a referendum were to be called, but the political will is not there. The official line is "we're too busy with Brexit, lets talk later". Now, Independence does not equate to a United Ireland, but its certainly a huge step in that direction. Scotland are already arguing for another Independence referendum. They failed narrowly last time, and that was before Brexit. I suspect it would be a landslide vistory for Scottish Independence it that were brought back to the polls.

TL:DR

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... -1.3640857

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks, Al! Very interesting.

[Impenitent]

An independent Ireland and an independent Scotland is an interesting prospect. Any possibility of some kind of Celtic agreement, do you think?

Sent from a tiny phone keyboard via Tapatalk - typos inevitable.

[Alatar]

Really hard to know. I imagine it would be more like Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland would be members of the EU, while the UK (comprising Wales and England) would not. Ireland and Northern Ireland would probably be separate entities for at least a decade or two but would work towards a combined government eventually. I'd be surprised if Scotland were part of that. The fact that there's a sea border between the island of Ireland and Scotland makes working together less urgent.

[River]

Just wanted to say that I'm finding these broader implications of Brexit for Ireland fascinating.

[Frelga]

Any concerns that the situation may turn violent?

[Alatar]

Absolutely, if the border returns. Which is why the UK are getting a hard "No" from the EU (and Ireland) on any plan that includes a de facto border on the Island of Ireland. The DUP, who are supporting the Tory Government to stay in power, are absolutely refusing to consider a border in the Irish sea. Hence the impasse.

[Alatar]

Not to be patronising, but this explanation for a Kids program in Ireland is being lauded as the clearest explanation of the issues without jargon.

https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0 ... -for-kids/

[Frelga]

No, that's great, I need a baby version. I have not been following UK politics, except through the Twitter feeds of JK Rowling and The_Angel, both of whom are vocally anti-Brexit.

[Túrin Turambar]

What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.

This is far from guaranteed. The issues which led to Brexit two years ago are still there, and a lot of voters might view a second referendum as the political elites saying something like "it was very naughty of you to vote the wrong way last time. We'll give you another chance, and please don't disappoint us again."

At any rate, I'm not sure why the Irish border problem should be a deal-breaker. There are borders between EU and non-EU members in Scandinavia and around Switzerland, and, while Nin can confirm, I don't think they make life unduly difficult for the people living near them.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

The problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit. So they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet. Some people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue. People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.

The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only", but that was clearly not what the people wanted, so of course they rejected that particular Brexit. The next few negotiations all fell apart. Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit, which is scarier than the other versions.

Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.

[Alatar]

What would be better for the UK is if they allow a vote, because they will vote to remain.

This is far from guaranteed. The issues which led to Brexit two years ago are still there, and a lot of voters might view a second referendum as the political elites saying something like "it was very naughty of you to vote the wrong way last time. We'll give you another chance, and please don't disappoint us again."

At any rate, I'm not sure why the Irish border problem should be a deal-breaker. There are borders between EU and non-EU members in Scandinavia and around Switzerland, and, while Nin can confirm, I don't think they make life unduly difficult for the people living near them.

Its not guaranteed, but I think its very likely. The first Brexit was a protest vote that got out of hand and won to everyone's surprise. Even the day after Brexit passed, Leave voters were complaining that they hadn't actually believed it would pass.

The Irish border and the ones ins Scandinavia are staggeringly different in every respect. You can't realistically speak of them in the same breath. The Irish border was routinely costing lives, up to 3,500 over a couple of decades.

[Alatar]

The problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit. So they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet. Some people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue. People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.

The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only", but that was clearly not what the people wanted, so of course they rejected that particular Brexit. The next few negotiations all fell apart. Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit, which is scarier than the other versions.

Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.

This is wrong in almost every respect.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

In which respect, that it was wrong to let the people decide such an important issue or that Hungary is going to make things difficult for the EU?

[Alatar]

The problem is the political elite don't want a Brexit.

True

So they are all dragging their feet. Both the UK and the EU are dragging their feet.

False

Some people are thinking it was foolish to let the people actually vote on such an important issue.

I'm sure some people do, but not the majority

People are getting frustrated at the pace of leaving.

Some people are, many are hoping the slow pace will encourage a change of heart.

The first attempts to negotiate were basically a "Brexit in name only",

False

but that was clearly not what the people wanted,

True for some. Less than 40% by latest polls.

so of course they rejected that particular Brexit.

False in every respect. The people are in no position to reject anything. The EU rejected the Chequers Plan because it partitions the North, among other things. Its fundamentally flawed.

The next few negotiations all fell apart.

True

Because of deadlines the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit,

Possibly, but highly unlikely

which is scarier than the other versions.

Not particularly

Meanwhile it looks like Hungary is going to make life even more difficult for the EU.

Not sure why you think that, and care less. Not my circus, not my monkeys.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

That's a lot of true statements for something that is false in almost every respect.