Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Nin]

Putain de bordel de merde.

(I cannot type the English equivalent, but well, I'm devastated)

[Alatar]

Monumental stupidity. Now I'm really worried Trump will win...

[Túrin Turambar]

Brexit has won 52-48, Cameron has announced that the Conservative Party will have a new leader by October.

Like the Conservative victory in the general election last May, this was unexpected, to the point that the Leave campaign had conceded defeat based on exit polls. Either the shy Tories have struck again, or the shift in favour of Brexit continued and gained strength over the last couple of days before the election.

Just editorialise for a bit, even though my views are in the minority here – I have to admit that I am not convinced that the undemocratic and incomprehensible institutions of the EU are worth the money it costs to maintain them or that their tens of thousands of pages of regulations (including something like 26,000 words on selling a cabbage) are actually beneficial. Additionally, I’ve always disliked the attitude that the EU leadership appears to have towards democracy and the views of ordinary people. I also think that Switzerland and Norway, two of Europe’s most successful countries, show that you can be integrated into Europe without being a member of the EU. So I was pulling for the Leave side, and I found myself unexpectedly buoyed even though all my co-workers seemed to be committed remainers and were definitely in low spirits by mid-afternoon.

Other comments – this is a big win for Nigel Farage, he made Euroskepticism respectable and has now achieved the central goal of his political career. A big win for Boris Johnson, who took the risk of going against almost all other MPs, including the leadership of his own party, to lead the Leave campaign even though it could have left him in the political wilderness. A vindication for the people who made and distributed the crowd-funded Brexit movie, which may have been enough to tip the result. A huge blow for Cameron, whose political career is unsurprisingly over. Not much of a blow for Jeremy Corbyn, who has always been sceptical of the EU and campaigned pretty half-heartedly for the Remain side. A big boost for the Scottish independence movement, who will push for another separation referendum given that Scotland voted strongly for Remain. A potential boost for Northern Ireland’s republicans for the same reason, but that is less clear. A big repudiation of the political establishment by the British electorate, particularly in England and Wales – both Labour and Conservative areas went for Brexit, even though the leadership of both parties pushed for Remain. And a huge problem for the EU leadership, now that Euroskeptic parties in other countries are calling for their own referendums.

[Lalaith]

I don't know enough about it, really, I was hoping the UK would stay. It seemed like the better thing to do, the right thing to do. There was so much ugliness on the Leave side.

[Alatar]

Honestly I think its economic suicide. Only time will tell.

[yovargas]

Well, this seems pretty sad.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

I must be the only person who doesn't think this is bad.

With any luck, it will push Scottish independence over the top and force Spain to take Catalonia seriously.

[yovargas]

I know almost nothing about the topic so I can't really say I have anything resembling an informed opinion. I just know that I want to see the world becoming more unified, not less, and this seems like a loud rejection of that ideal.

[River]

Well, I woke up this morning and the world's fifth largest economy wasn't anymore. I hope that was all part of Leave's cunning plan. Otherwise that's a lot of suffering for a lot of people for...what, exactly?

Effing fabulous. We (as in my tiny little employer) export to Europe. Hopefully people who were down for instruments this week will still be next week. And hopefully Asia won't totally spaz out too because we sell stuff over there as well.

BTW, Nin, I understood that. Clearly my husband's ex-roommate taught me well...

[Primula Baggins]

Part of my work is editing documents for a large international manufacturing corporation that is firmly based in the UK, although they have many plants in the USA as well. They are more than a bit roiled about this, because they suddenly can no longer sell their products freely across Europe. The advantage of a UK base has suddenly become much less. They are big enough that a relocation (of headquarters, and deemphasizing investment in and expansion of UK plants in favor of ones in Europe) would hurt the UK. And they're one of many corporations that must be considering this now.

[Primula Baggins]

The cover of next week's New Yorker:

[Túrin Turambar]

Honestly, I think a lot of people have been supporting the EU more for what it represents over what is actually is. Likewise, just as many campaigners on the Leave side have overstated the control that Brussels has on Britain or the issues with immigration, so too have many campaigners on the Remain side grossly overstated the consequences of leaving. Countries can have close relationships, free trade and free movement of their citizens without political union – like the U.S. and Canada, or Australia and New Zealand. Many countries do trade with the EU as a whole, and many countries both inside and outside the EU trade with Britain and will continue to do so. The UK is still the world’s sixth-largest economy (from memory) and will remain a major market for European goods. If anything, the EU has been very ineffective with negotiating free trade agreements. As it stands now, the EU has no free trade agreement with the U.S., China or Japan, and has been taking years to negotiate one with Canada.

Ultimately, what I think will happen is that, over the next few years, the UK will come to a sort of part-in arrangement with Brussels like the arrangement with Norway. Trade with Europe will fall slightly, but trade with countries outside Europe will probably grow. I see no rational reason to assume any sort of doomsday scenario. It’s not like every country which isn’t in the EU is some sort of economic basket-case.

[yovargas]

HA!

[Inanna]

Good one. We had to try a lot harder - different approach

[Hachimitsu]

As did many many other countries.

I do know of a Canadian bank that is considering leaving the UK to, since they were based in the UK because it was in the EU. In the short term there will be a recession. After that, who knows, only time will tell on the economic end. On the ideas end, it's just ugly.

To know people voted for a recession... it says a lot, but I don't know what a lot about. Is it about sovereignty? Xenophobia? It certainly isn't about short term economics. Long term who knows. Only time will tell. Optics wise, it looks pretty bad on all those fronts. Especially about sovereignty when it comes to a historical perspective.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Maybe instead of voting for the short term recession they were voting for the long term benefits.

[JewelSong]

C_G, that is the explanation from the few people I know who voted "leave." That the short-term result might be chaotic, but in the long-term, it would be beneficial to the UK. Maybe they're right. But I still feel that the decision to leave is an unfortunate one.


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[Nin]

Túrin, living in a non EU country, some strong contradictions: Switzerland has known several years of recession after the rejection vote of the EEE (maybe in English it would be EES a European Economic Space) in 1992 and it only became notably better after having the bilateral agreement which means that Switzerland has to accept most of the EU regulations anyway without having a say in it and that it can take part in the research and university exchange programs by paying far more than it would have to if it were a member state. Also, Nationals of EU member states have the right to work in Switzerland. After the last anti-immigration vote in 2015 negotiations with the EU have been very difficult again. To keep up free trade exchange as foreseen in the bilterals, the EU demands that free circulation of persons is also maintained and the vote from last February asked for quotas. This and the sky high rise of the Swiss Franc have been major problems again. SO, yes, Switzerland is a rich economy but it pays the price for not being a part of the common market too. And the Swiss or the Norwegians have never been members - they never opted out of a free market or out of free circulation for their citizens. Many firms located in Britain because it was in the European Union but had a slightly different status on some stances. Those will leave. And they were never in Switzerland or Norway.

The EU will most certainly not be conciliatory with the U.K., be it only to discourage other countries from taking the same road. The current negotiations are much tougher for the Swiss than they were in the 1990ies. So I doubt that they will come to some arrangement like with Norway, the British will have it much harder.

ETA: I would also like to ask to find any proof of those 26.000 words about cabbage, in the 1970ies (!) there was already a hoax and a joke going around about a Directive about caramel toffees being 25900 words along and the similarity of numbers is just too striking....

[Frelga]

C_G, that is the explanation from the few people I know who voted "leave." That the short-term result might be chaotic, but in the long-term, it would be beneficial to the UK.

Because people are so GOOD at predicting long-term results of anything, or giving up immediate enjoyment for potential of future benefit such as survival.

See "global warming."

[anthriel]

Hi, all! *

two democracies have never or hardly ever gone to war against each other.

This is SUCH an interesting statement, and one I had never heard before. This makes me happy.

Honestly, I think a lot of people have been supporting the EU more for what it represents over what is actually is.

Again, in my toe-in-the-cauldron kind of outsider-who-knows nothing way, I wondered this exact same thing. From what I have read, the EU may seem to many people as an important symbol of European unity, rather than a favorable political construct. The loss of perceived unity may be something people are mourning, aside from the change in trade alliances. Again, no dog in the hunt there, but I wondered.

Likewise, just as many campaigners on the Leave side have overstated the control that Brussels has on Britain or the issues with immigration, so too have many campaigners on the Remain side grossly overstated the consequences of leaving.

This is always true in a debate, and it always leaves me exhausted. Sorting out real issues from overblown rhetoric is a full time job.

Countries can have close relationships, free trade and free movement of their citizens without political union – like the U.S. and Canada, or Australia and New Zealand. Many countries do trade with the EU as a whole, and many countries both inside and outside the EU trade with Britain and will continue to do so. The UK is still the world’s sixth-largest economy (from memory) and will remain a major market for European goods. If anything, the EU has been very ineffective with negotiating free trade agreements. As it stands now, the EU has no free trade agreement with the U.S., China or Japan, and has been taking years to negotiate one with Canada.

I wondered this, too. It seems possible for the UK to rebuilt some of the alliances which truly were favorable to her, without having to be subject to the decisions of the EU. Maybe? So perhaps not all that was EU-centric is lost?

Ultimately, what I think will happen is that, over the next few years, the UK will come to a sort of part-in arrangement with Brussels like the arrangement with Norway. Trade with Europe will fall slightly, but trade with countries outside Europe will probably grow. I see no rational reason to assume any sort of doomsday scenario. It’s not like every country which isn’t in the EU is some sort of economic basket-case.

Again, I also wondered about this. Perhaps advantageous alliances can be rebuilt. It certainly won't (and can't) all be the same, but I'm not sure all is lost.

(I keep wanting to come back to this topic but have been too busy and/or too tipsy when I have had the time. I should be back soon! I think the discussion is interesting.)

*I really do have some questions about this whole thing, and I very much hope my ignorance can be forgiven here, because I'm not sure I want to let everyone on Facebook know how completely in the dark I am about all of this. Thank you for your patience ahead of time, and PLEASE know that if I happen to say something that sounds like right-wing (or left-wing) rhetoric, it is totally by coincidence. I don't watch/read/absorb any partisan type of news outlets, which makes my available selection of watchable/readable/adsorbable news sources a little scarce. I am not trying to further any agenda here. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, nor am I trying to ruffle feathers on purpose. Or ruffle feathers at all, although I am sure that simply by posting in Lasto I am invoking that possibility. I'm not actually sure which side I am *supposed* to be on, based on the labels I may have already earned on this messageboard, so please don't assume anything other than simple, humble curiosity. I really don't have a dog in this hunt. I'm just trying to learn a little bit, from my friends who clearly know so much more than I do. Thank you.