Chaos in Congress

[Voronwë the Faithful]

With today's latest shocking development, I think we need a new thread about this.

As I'm sure most know, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, John Boehner, stunned the country two weeks ago on September 25 when he announced he was resigning effective October 30. Immediately speculation was that the House Majority Leader, Kevin McCarthy (who represents Bakersfield, CA, Faramond and Griffy hometown) would ascend to the Speakership, and Rep. McCarthy quickly announced his candidacy. Rep. McCarthy is not known for any great accomplishments, but he has made a stunning ascent to his position, and was considered an excellent team builder. However, at least some in the "Freedom caucus" the most conservative members of the House who were pushing for Boehner's removal, were not convinced about McCarthy, thinking that he would just continue the path that Boehner was on. Then McCarthy made the mistake of accidently publicly telling the truth of the house committee investigating the deaths in Benghazi, Libya of the U.S. ambassador and three others -- that the real purpose of that committee was to political damage Hillary Clinton. Still, he stunned just about everyone (including Boehner) when he announced today that he is pulling out of the Speaker race.

At this point, I don't think anyone knows what will happen. The only two others to have announced their candidacies were two very conservative members, Reps Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) (who generated a lot of scorn for his behavior during a recent hearing featuring the head of Planned Parenthood) and Daniel Webster (R-Fla.). On Wednesday, the "Freedom Caucus" endorsed Webster. However, it seems unlikely that either of them would be able to get the 218 votes necessary. Several prominent GOP representatives, including Paul Ryan (Wis.), Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Trey Gowdy (S.C.), all quickly indicated that they were not interested in running for speaker. My understanding is that until someone gets the necessary votes, Boehner has to stay on as Speaker, whether he likes it or not.

Stay tuned!

[Primula Baggins]

I think it would suit all of the Republican caucus but Boehner just fine if Boehner was stuck with the Speakership until the election. The ones who can't get 218 votes won't get them, and the ones who can also know that they will probably end up tied to a colossal political failure (I'm sure that's why Boehner wants out).

But he's also resigning from Congress. Surely they can't prevent that?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

One of the arcane rules of the constitution is that the Speaker doesn't actually have to be a member of the House! So even if he resigns as a Congressman he is still Speaker, until there is a new one. Or so I understand it. I don't know what provision there is, if any, if a Speaker were to die while in office. I don't think the Majority Leader would automatically become Speaker the way the Vice President automatically would become President if the President passed away because the Speaker is voted on by the whole House, while the Majority Leader is only voted on by the majority party (and the former is a Constitutional office, while the latter is not).

What a mess!

[Griffon64]

I wasn't surprised by anything surrounding Kevin McCarthy. He rose through the ranks pretty quickly, in part on the strength of his ability to fund raise for and support others and build teams in general, from what I've heard. It seemed natural that he would keep climbing the ladder until he found a rung that was too big for him to handle. That said, Faramond keeps a closer tab on politics than I do so if he adds anything it will carry more weight than what I have to say!

Unfortunately, in my opinion Kevin McCarthy just doesn't have the political depth for a higher office than what he currently holds. He's always been kind of one-dimensional feeling to me - disappears when not viewed from his best side, so to speak. He's certainly not very visible in his home district. He doesn't need to be of course - he hails from a die-hard red district that will keep voting for him no matter what.

As far as the greater mess goes I think it is high time for the Republican party to expel the hairball of tea leaves that's been plaguing them for the past decade, but I don't think they will.

I do think support for Republicans will dwindle over time as the demographic shifts under them. I would vote Republican more often -- sometimes I vote Republican and sometimes I vote Democrat. I don't fit either pigeon-hole -- if I didn't suffer from the nagging feeling I was voting against my own best interests ( as a woman, an immigrant, and someone who is fond of nature and believes that there is a lot of inequality in society ) every time I do so.

There are plenty of Democrat policies I disagree with, but since my only real choice for opposing them is to hitch my wagon to a party that saw no problem with assembling an all-male panel to discuss women's health issues ... ack.

Anyway. I digress.

[River]

The Legislative Branch has been on the brink of a total collapse for ages, it seems. This though...I have no idea what to make of this. Boehner basically offered up his head on a plate to keep the government from getting shut down. The Tea Party gladly accepted it...but if they can't replace it they can't keep it. Well, maybe they can have the plate. But not the head. What were they hoping to achieve again?

I want an amendment to the US constitution that requires all Congressional districts in all states to be drawn by non-partisan committees. Eff this gerrymandered safe seat nonsense. It's doing no one any good.

As far as the greater mess goes I think it is high time for the Republican party to expel the hairball of tea leaves that's been plaguing them for the past decade, but I don't think they will.

Oh my, if there's a HoF highlight reel, that sentence needs to be on it. Beautifully put.

[yovargas]

So does this mean that Congress will be doing more or less of the nothing they usually do?

I kid, I kid.....

[Primula Baggins]

As far as the greater mess goes I think it is high time for the Republican party to expel the hairball of tea leaves that's been plaguing them for the past decade, but I don't think they will.

Oh my, if there's a HoF highlight reel, that sentence needs to be on it. Beautifully put.

Yes. What a beautiful sentence. And so true. The tea-party mess is not only costing the Republican party its effectiveness in the present; it's costing them much of the next generation of voters and most of the voters who aren't white and native-born.

And there's another side effect, one that I hate to see coming as a Democrat: it's making it easier for Democratic politicians to avoid pushing for liberal causes. Being slightly to the right of Eisenhower is far enough left these days. Since that's where the corporate money is, that's where the inner circles seem to want the party to end up. After all, who else are centrists and moderates going to find to vote for? (At least for national office.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Griffy, I was glad to see you weigh in. When it first became apparent that McCarthy was the likely next Speaker I had thought to ask you and Faramond what you thought of him, since he represents your district. Your assessment seems pretty close to my impression.

a party that saw no problem with assembling an all-male panel to discuss women's health issues

Again!

[River]

It's a sideshow. It really is. It's the sort of thing that comes up when they need to either distract or make excuses for not actually governing. Really makes them look like they're doing stuff. Meanwhile, the government needs funding, the national debt limit needs extending, and, oh, by the way, anyone noticed we're engaging in a proxy war with Russia in Syria? Or that our European allies are getting overrun with refugees? Or that a major trade deal with Asia is happening? And where is Congress? Having a field day over some heavily edited videos that were made a year ago and for some reason released this summer (seriously, if there was any actual wrongdoing, don't you think this stuff would or should have gone into the hands of law enforcement last year?).

[River]

So it looks like Boehner's now going to stay on until they've replaced him. Not just picked a nominee but actually had the vote. Even if that takes until his term runs out.

He actually has a lot of room to maneuver now. If he cuts a deal that ticks off the Tea Party, what exactly can they do to him? He's already resigned.

[Frelga]

Could that have been the plan?

The idea of the Tea Party splitting off is attractive to me. I wonder what the Republican party would be like if that happened. Perhaps they would be compelled to shift towards the center.

[Primula Baggins]

I think that could be the plan, and so does Josh Marshall, one of the sharpest of the Librul Rubbish bloggers I read daily.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/boe ... okay-sorta

Boehner's Secret Plan Ripens (Okay, Sorta)

...But here's something to consider on the off chance something like this did happen. It would be a pretty big transformation. Because Boehner 2.0 would be basically the Man of Steel and indestructible for almost 18 months.

The cudgel wielded by the 'Freedom Caucus' and the broader House GOP right would disappear?

Threaten to depose him? Right.

Say he's not following the Hastert Rule? Right.

He would be indestructible. No one would have any real leverage over him. And remember, the Speakership is a constitutional office.

I'm pretty sure that won't happen. But if it did happen it would mean the Freedom Caucus antics would backfire on them spectacularly.

[JewelSong]

I don't know what provision there is, if any, if a Speaker were to die while in office.

Apparently, the role would fall to the President pro tempore of the Senate. Here is the line of "succession" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... succession

The Speaker of the House is third in line for the Presidency...a sobering thought.

There was a West Wing episode which dealt with this; the VP had resigned and there was no one in that position and the President removed himself temporarily due to his daughter's kidnapping.

[Impenitent]

I learnt more about US politics by watching West Wing than by reading the papers.

[Primula Baggins]

It was a fascinating show.

IIRC, once the Speaker had been President for even a matter of days, he could not return to being Speaker. I don't know if that was correct, but it makes sense politically.

[Griffon64]

The idea of the Tea Party splitting off is attractive to me. I wonder what the Republican party would be like if that happened. Perhaps they would be compelled to shift towards the center.

That would be my hope! I generally live close to center, though I have some outliers as well, and I feel like I don't quite have a party to vote for. ( My perception of Democrats is colored by the California variant, which seem to throw out more non-viable ideas than the mainstream. ) As far as I can tell the Tea Party has firmed up the perception of conservatives as stupid, out of touch, rabble-rousing, bombastic, pig-headed, willfully and proudly ignorant, you name it - with their childish acting in positions of power. And I hate it because I only know one or two conservatives like that - and I've found that if I actually talk to them, as opposed to encountering them hiding behind their regurgitated shield of Fox-fed babble, they are reasonable and thoughtful enough.

I expect there's a big segment of the electorate in the middle that is underserved by both Democrats and Republicans. IIRC, about 42% of the electorate identify as independent now, though in reality they mostly are moderate versions of their parties' traditional extremes more so than truly independent, and they tend to lean Democrat. If they lean Democrat because the Democratic party is more towards center ( compared to the Republicans, they feel that way for sure ), then they may be more likely to support a more-towards-center Republican party. The Tea Party can form their own thing and test how supportive of their ideas America really is. They'd be in for a rude awakening, I think.

[Cerin]

I feel as though I lost the train of the discussion here. Are we being entirely facetious talking about this being someone's plan? And the plan being alluded to, does that refer to Boehner being placed in an invulnerable position, or to the splitting of the party? How did we get from Boehner being invulnerable, to the splitting of the party? Is that seen as perhaps the inevitable outcome of the Tea Party being frustrated at no longer having power over Boehner?

I can imagine the thinking and plotting going on! I suspect they will pressure Ryan to take the job.

[River]

I suspect the "This is Boehner's master plan!" narrative is growing legs for the same reasons conspiracy theories in general take off: people just can't accept that things can just happen. In the case of Congress, I'm sure there was a plan: Boehner steps down, McCarthy takes the lead. But that apparently isn't happening anymore and apparently there was no viable Plan B so now the House is getting completely overtaken by events and the journalists are spinning this "master plan" narrative because the alternative - that we have a branch of government that's just not functioning at all anymore - is too terrible to consider.

As for Boehner's vulnerability, well, technically he quit. But he can't leave until he's replaced. So what exactly can his enemies do to him?

[Primula Baggins]

The article I quoted was joking in terms of this being "Boehner's secret plan," but I think the writer (Josh Marshall) was serious in pointing out the political consequences—that there wouldn't be anything left for the Tea Party wing to threaten Boehner with. He could make deals with Democrats to his heart's content. Not that deals with Democrats are what he really wants, but I do think he wants the U.S. government to continue functioning, and if that's the price, he'll pay it—in contrast to the Tea Partiers. Some of them really don't want the government to function, and others won't keep the government functioning if it means cooperating in any way with Democrats or facilitating any action the President supports.

As for the Republican party splitting, there would be a real risk that the result would be two nonviable parties, at least at first. Tea Party supporters who believe whatever they think should be true, is true—that subset probably believes that a true Tea Party party would attract enough voters to dominate U.S. politics. Poll data do not bear this out.

And the same can be said for the "Progressive Party" some left-leaning Democrats would like to see. I'd rather they remained inside the tent and influenced Democratic policy from there—as is happening now to some extent.

[Frelga]

The party split was just a hypothetical sidetrack sparked by Griffy's post. I don't expect it to happen any time soon.

As for the Master Plan, while I have no way of knowing, I am not betting on Boehner planning exactly this outcome in advance but possibly he had considered it as a contingency.