(Political) Earthquake in Europe?

[Túrin Turambar]

In one of those situations with a touch of historical irony, it is now apparent that the voters of Europe have sent to the Parliament of the EU an unprecedented number of representatives opposed to the very existence of the EU. This has been particularly true of the United Kingdom, France and Denmark, where minor parties running on a strong anti-EU platform actually won pluralities of the votes (the United Kingdom Independence Party, or UKIP, the Front Nationale, or FN, and the Danish People’s Party, or DPP, respectively).

And while the focus has been on the parties of the harder right, it is worth noting that some of the parties of the harder left also did quite well. The only groupings in the European Parliament to have actually gained seats have been Europeans for Freedom and Democracy (the alliance of mainstream right-wing anti-European parties like UKIP), the European United Left-Nordic Green Left (which includes the likes of Sinn Fein and the left-wing anti-EU Greek Party Syriza) and the ‘Non-Inscrits’, or parties that have no group. Some of them, like Jobbik in Hungary and the bluntly-named Attack Party in Bulgaria, look kind-of fascist. Others, like Golden Dawn in Greece, unashamedly use the symbolism and rhetoric of Mussolini-era Italian fascism. But they are all opposed to the EU, whatever they are, and they have all gained ground.

I have to admit that I find the European Parliament to be a bit of an artificial institution. There is no political union in Europe, and hence no state, and I am not sure what real purpose a Parliament serves in the absence of one. I have to wonder whether a number of people across the continent haven’t also felt the same way, and hence the result.

What is more interesting, though, is what these results may mean on a national level. Whatever you may think of him, UKIP leader Nigel Farage is now a serious player in British politics, and while the EP results won’t be re-created in the UK’s general election due in May next year, it is not-inconceivable that UKIP will outpoll the moribund Liberal Democrats and win parliamentary seats (so much for the Clegg Phenomenon).

I get the impression that the middle in Europe is being squeezed. There is obviously a popular feeling against elites – political, economic and cultural – and a movement away from what might be called conventional politics. The big question is how far this will continue, and whether it will translate to further victories by hard-left and hard-right parties at a national level. If Europe’s economy does not improve, and immigration remains a hot-button issue, who knows what will happen.

[Passdagas the Brown]

There is certainly an amount of political union in Europe. EU member states have, for example, given up a number of the key functions of states, and handed those functions to the EU, such as the power to negotiate trade deals.

But you're right about the European Parliament. It is indeed the least powerful of the three main branches of EU governance.

But that also means that these victories for Euro-skeptics in the European Parliement will not really translate into any significant changes. If anything, it may spur the other EU institutions, including the EC and the Council, to push for greater institutional unity.

[Túrin Turambar]

But that also means that these victories for Euro-skeptics in the European Parliement will not really translate into any significant changes. If anything, it may spur the other EU institutions, including the EC and the Council, to push for greater institutional unity.

I suspect that, if they do take the approach of ignoring the results and pushing for more unity, the Eurosceptic parties will see even stronger results in 2019. One of the biggest complaints about the EU government is that it does not take 'no' for an answer. A referendum is put to voters on integration. If they vote 'yes', it is a done deal and nothing further happens. If they vote 'no', the referendum gets put again and again until the voters return the 'correct' result. I can understand why some EU voters are getting a bit leery of the process.

And, more importantly, the Eurosceptics may achieve further growth in national elections, which will give them actual domestic legislative power. There will be national elections in Britain next year and in France in 2017, before the next EU elections, and the government in both countries is struggling while the opposition has yet to achieve much of a breakthrough. It is a volatile situation. And even more so in some of the smaller countries, particularly in Eastern Europe.

ETA: Boris Johnson's view.

[Passdagas the Brown]

I don't think so. IMO, the primary reason for this Euroskeptic tide is the stagnating economy. When the economy picks up (and I believe it will soon), things will swing back to normal, where Euroskepticism is a minority view.

Plus, if the EC and Council push for more integration in certain areas, I don't think a popular backlash will occur. Most Europeans have no idea about what EU governance actually entails, and any further integration will go largely unnoticed. Yes, there is a popular criticism of the EU as having a "democratic deficit," including its inability to take "no" for an answer. But this has never stalled further integration. Plus, IMO, "referendums" are terrible vehicles for responsible democracy. They usually only reflect the trend of the week in which they are held, and rarely capture the popular will in a meaningful way.

Also, IMO, Russia's actions are going to spur a lot more action in terms of integrating EU member state foreign and defense policy. This has been a tough nut to crack for the EU, ever since it developed a Common Foreign and Security Policy, and a European Security and Defence Policy, but Russia just made things easier for advocates of greater union on that front.

[Túrin Turambar]

The economy will pick up in some countries, but others are facing serious structural problems due to demographics. Greece is the obvious example, but Italy and Spain are pretty shaky as well. And the economy interacts in all sorts of ways with the other simmering issue, immigration from North Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.