Over-Population

The place for measured discourse about politics and current events, including developments in science and medicine.
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

Faramond wrote:I don't think this can really be about saving money and income distribution in the end.

The ratio of unproductive citizens to productive workers gets too high, then something bad will happen. I know little about economics ... I'm just going on common sense here. If productive labor became scarce, wouldn't inflation go way up? If too many people are trying to live off of savings and investments and things won't the value of such things go way down?

The problem now, I guess, is paying off all this interest from the high standard of living for unproductive workers in order to keep inflation from going through the roof soon. I'm not making any judgement here, or saying what anyone deserves.
Faramond -

The issues are not so much with unproductive citizens ( I take offense at unproductive workers :)) but the way at least here in America we have so totally skewed the major economic advantages to those already in the best positions to withstand economic adversity - the wealthiest citizens and corporations. We have had it drummed into our heads that we must protect business and investing at the expense of taking care of our truly needy, and by NO means here am I talking about the elderly, one of the most organized and vehemently outspoken of all political forces now in play in American politics.

People start spouting rubbish about flat taxes and universal sales taxes, begrudge anything that goes to needs based services such as Medicaid or other forms of assistance, and fail to realize that these programs themselves count for very little of the federal budget. Most of them have so many strings attached and the amounts of benefit that the individuals actually receive would leave you shocked about how harsh such programs are. The adminstrative costs eat up far more of the actual dollars than you would ever believe.

But, then we have politicos in office that want to keep pushing further and further tax breaks to the wealthiest of the wealthy, with the weak argument that these people will then contribute their largesse to private charitable causes. Like art museums, college endowments, hospital wings named after their grandmother, or memorial chapels at the family church. If they give at all in a relative proportion to their wealth. By and large, such charitable giving is made with very specific benefits in mind, and they are not normally done without other benefits to the donor being recieved in kind.

Eborr's observations are about as valid here as well as in the UK. A very small percentage of our population controls a vast majority of the wealth. Guess how many of these folks have kin or close friends in elected offices?

Face it, the average American household is bringing in a median income of $44,300 US, based on 2004 figures. Since that figure includes all taxpayers both single and married, children or not, working or retired, it is hard to say how that translates down per capita. But, 70% of the personal income taxes are raised by the people in the middle classes. These people are the ones who have hundreds of dollars at most in dividend or interest income, their major net worth is probably tied up in their homes and maybe their retirement accounts, and they basically funnel everything else through a series of credit cards and other forms of financing if they can. In the meantime, true poverty continues to grow, and the wealthy only get wealthier.

In any case, I would propose doing away with Medicare and Medicaid entirely, and instead putting into place a national healthcare insurance program, which would be an optional program for those covered by other private insurers, but would be far more equitable in premiums than the hodgepodge system that America has in place now. And, we need to get harsher. Some things just should not be covered by insurance or Medicare after a certain age. We are not destined to be designed to live forever, and we need to wake up to it. We also need to foster incentives to care for our elderly within their own families when possible. I am not saying working women should quit their jobs and become caregivers. I am saying that incentives should be out there to offer that option. The care would most likely be better than what they receive in the MA funded institutions.

(Maria, I agree with you there - those places just, for lack of a better word, suck. I would rather be dead than ever end up in such a place.)

As vison noted, the piper needs to be paid. It should be paid equitably - with those who are most able to do so doing the paying. Why do we need tax free wealth transfer in so many cases? I can understand that smaller estates should qualify for such things, but there are so many major loopholes in the laws that allow for the largest of estates to get by with paying a mere fraction in tax that it could make most of you shake your heads in amazement. I know, I did this for many many years.

Sadly, as long as the wealthy are also our highest and most influential politicians, nothing is going to change. Their motto - preserve the status quo and hand it off to the future whenever possible.
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Túrin Turambar
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Post by Túrin Turambar »

Watcher wrote:People start spouting rubbish about flat taxes
Hey...

;)
Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

The Watcher: In any case, I would propose doing away with Medicare and Medicaid entirely, and instead putting into place a national healthcare insurance program, which would be an optional program for those covered by other private insurers, but would be far more equitable in premiums than the hodgepodge system that America has in place now. And, we need to get harsher. Some things just should not be covered by insurance or Medicare after a certain age. We are not destined to be designed to live forever, and we need to wake up to it. We also need to foster incentives to care for our elderly within their own families when possible. I am not saying working women should quit their jobs and become caregivers. I am saying that incentives should be out there to offer that option. The care would most likely be better than what they receive in the MA funded institutions.

I strongly agree with all of this.

Jn
A fool's paradise is a wise man's hell.
Erunáme
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Post by Erunáme »

Faramond wrote:This isn't about what anyone deserves. I think to focus on whining or something misses the point. This is about what is economically sustainable.


:agree:
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MithLuin
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Post by MithLuin »

Oh, and about the amt. spent on the war in Iraq... it has some compensations....

Image
Image

...we can just steal Hussein's money... :roll:
Jnyusa
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Post by Jnyusa »

Ok, gals, everyone stick ONE BAR in your purse and try to look casual.

Guys, stick it wherever it will be inconspicuous and try to look like you were born that way.

:D

Jn
A fool's paradise is a wise man's hell.
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

:rofl:

I was thinking the same thing.

I've got a kid starting college, after all. Larceny has its place.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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MithLuin
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Post by MithLuin »

I think we've found Prim's price :P :twisted:

But at least it's more than $5 :halo:
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

You get a kid into a marvelous but expensive school, and you judge the standards for larceny! :P

My price (probably) is $39,200. This year. :P

The kid actually did win a scholarship, so it's not as bad as that.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

[tangent]
Scholarships are wonderful. I think we spent only about $1000 last semester after all the scholarships & govt. loans were totaled up. :love: Part of why we are going to take a cool vacation this year is because of all the money my oldest daughter has saved us in scholarships- just in the first year alone. :)

I did a huge 15 year budget about 7 years ago, calculating how much we could get from various sorts of loans and how fast we could pay it off and carrying the calculations on through all three kids in college, and had figured that we could JUST do it with a second mortgage on the house and borrowing against my husband's 401K and all sorts of other finacial finagling.... and now it looks not to be terribly necessary. As long as she keeps her scholarships (and it looks like she's managed it another semester) and my son gets the same package (and from his ACT scores, going to the same school, that's pretty much assured) then we are SET until the youngest daughter gets to school.

This is years of worry finally resolving into a much better than hoped for scenario!

[/tangent]
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

I am fortunate as well. My oldest has elected to go to a public institution locally, which means no room and board, and because it is in state, the rates are very reasonable. My next oldest is looking at probably doing the same, at least to start out. They also get a certain amount each year from their grandmother towards tuition, so that is a huge benefit for them.

I honestly do not know how other parents do this. My parents sort of did it the same way that my own kids are getting higher educations - they would pay X amount, and if we elected to go to private colleges, we either needed to get scholarships, work jobs, or apply for student loans. That is the way my sister is sending her three boys through college as well.

I cannot fathom how much tuition has increased over the last two decades. It is nearly a crime in some cases. :( $40,000 for one year of tuition, room and board is not quite a median household income in America.
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

My parents paid a little towards my college, but the bulk of the money I got through part time jobs and getting in the Army Reserves and going through the Reserve Officer's Training Corp program.

In other words, I sold my soul to the Army to get through school. ;) My hubby did the same. Of course that's more hazardous these days than when I did it.....
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Post by nerdanel »

Related to the discussion between TW, Eru, and others:
An interesting question is what our "needs" are, how they are modulated by the times, and the fact that we perceive ourselves to "need" things today - even to find them vitally necessary as a matter of safety - despite the fact that people neither had nor "needed" these things 15, 20, 50, or 100 years ago.

Today's New York Times has an article about how public NYC schools are finally cracking down on cell phones (against which there has been an unenforced rule for years), much to the outrage of parents and students. The students, of course, cite important "needs" such as keeping in touch with friends, listening to music on the way to school, etc. However, the parents raise a more facially valid concern. In their own words:

""It's a required part of our everyday life. We have a refrigerator, we have running water, we have cellphones."

"The chancellor will have civil disobedience on his hands. No one in New York is going to let their child go to school without a cellphone."

"I think it shows a big lack of awareness of the essential nature of having a way to communicate with your child during the day."

"It's just not safe out there."

****

Now, I'm going to be a bit annoyed if suburban residents dismiss these NYC parents' concerns right out of hand; obviously, urban dwelling is a very different ballgame, and in NYC more so than most other cities. But! I think it's likely that NYC parents 20 years ago managed to send their children to school without cellphones, and found that some of them even came back alive. The "essential nature" of communicating with children during the day could not have predated the technology that made that communication possible. Even in NYC, cell phones were first nonexistent, and then were a luxury item, before they became viewed as equivalent to electricity or running water.

And I can sympathize with these parents; last October, I had to fly to a courthouse in Virginia that purported to confiscate all cellphones brought into the courthouse. I was flying straight there and back, and would not have had anywhere to leave my phone. It seemed flat-out absurd and dangerous to me to travel solo to Virginia without my cell phone; I called, explained my situation to the Marshals, and they agreed to make an exception and hold my phone for me, because they too thought it was dangerous for someone traveling between states alone not to have a cellphone on them. And yet, if I'd been making the trip fifteen years ago, I wouldn't have had a cellphone, and probably wouldn't have considered myself in mortal peril due to the lack thereof.

Watcher, this goes to your point about AC as well, and any number of other things. But all that this says is that necessity is relative. There are people in other parts of the world who would be quite surprised to learn that electricity and running water are "required" parts of life; in contrast, American suburbanites will tell you that a car ("SUV"), color TV, cell phone, and computer with (probably high-speed) Internet access are "required" parts of life.

So, we're fortunate. And we're greedy - we want to be more fortunate. But where your post looked only to the past, I am thinking ahead to the future as well. 20, 50, 100 years from now, people will have conveniences, technological and otherwise, that we have not even yet imagined. If history is any guide, OUR lives are going to seem hard (in ways we're not fully aware of) to people of the future. I'm only speaking partially of technology here. I think and hope, as I alluded to in another thread in this forum, that "evolving standards of decency" will mean that their world is more humane, more cognizant of civil liberties, more tolerant of individual choice, and more supportive of the underprivileged, than ours is.

I'm just sayin' - I'm not sure that we feel wrongfully entitled to (or more accurately, "desirous of maintaining') our current standard of living just because people decades ago, or even people elsewhere in the world, had/have less. And that's partly because people elsewhere today, and definitely people of the future, will have far more than we do - I hope, in both material and non-material senses.

****

As for the school choice/tuition issue:

- $40,000 is conservative depending on the area and school program; the student budget for this past year for me was close to $56K (and I had to take most of that due to interview-related travel), and I know that NYC private law schools are now above $60K. Meanwhile, the President and Congress continue to slash loan aid (FORGET about grant aid) to students, most recently and controversially eliminating even federal student loan consolidation as of this July.

- My parents paid fully for my undergrad education because I went to school in-state and lived at home. It cost a mere $6000 a year (partly thanks to a Virginia legislative lock on in-state tuition amounts, which has since been removed), less than some of the local secondary private schools. My sister has elected to go to a private school, and my parents have made the same offer TW describes - they will pay the amount they would've paid if she was attending an in-state school (incl. in-state room and board), and she has to figure out the rest through scholarships, loans, etc. There was a recent NYT article on the increasing percentages of middle-class parents who are doing that. I think it's reasonably fair - as fair as middle-class parents who have their own needs and retirements to plan for can be, in light of "unfair" private school prices.
I won't just survive
Oh, you will see me thrive
Can't write my story
I'm beyond the archetype
I won't just conform
No matter how you shake my core
'Cause my roots, they run deep, oh

When, when the fire's at my feet again
And the vultures all start circling
They're whispering, "You're out of time,"
But still I rise
This is no mistake, no accident
When you think the final nail is in, think again
Don't be surprised, I will still rise
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

Maria wrote:My parents paid a little towards my college, but the bulk of the money I got through part time jobs and getting in the Army Reserves and going through the Reserve Officer's Training Corp program.

In other words, I sold my soul to the Army to get through school. ;) My hubby did the same. Of course that's more hazardous these days than when I did it.....
My BIL did the same. He served for several years in the Air Force, left to join a military contracted private sector job, and then got sent over to the Bosnian conflict as a CIVILIAN subject to military command. He protested, got fired a week after he exercised options in his contract and returned home, moved the family back here to Wisconsin from Texas, took a job at a 50% pay cut, and never looked back!! ;)

My son was looking at ROTC and other options for a bit - I think I talked him out of it. I have nothing against patriotic duty, but him being sent to Iraq is not a situation where I want to then get word that my son was killed fighting for or policing gosh knows what.

Sorry for going off tangent, I do not mean to turn this into another anti-Iraq involvement thread. :oops:
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TheEllipticalDisillusion
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Post by TheEllipticalDisillusion »

My parents covered whatever parts of my tuition wasn't covered by student loans, or scholarships-- maybe 5k a year?-- and I went to a public institution. My parents pay a lot more for my brother who attends NYU (40k+ total). He gets around 30k in loans, scholarships, grants, but the last bit is covered by my parents. He doesn't have room and board through the school (his own apartment and food which my parents give him money for-- they'd not let him starve).

University tuition is rising way too high, especially considering how necessary a college degree, or master's degree is in some cases. We're widing that gap between the rich and poor even more-- soon it'll be the educated/rich and uneducated/poor.

Back in my college days (2 years ago) Gov. Pataki wanted to cut lots of funding to the SUNY system (TAP, EOP, etc.) to make the SUNY system appear more prestigious. It would have hurt a good number of students, though. EOP allows many from inner cities to go to college, and TAP is helpful to lower middle class people. I'm glad he's not running for re-election. Then there was one of his opponents (Golisano) who was going to make college free.... pipe dreaming Dems.
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The Watcher
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Post by The Watcher »

nerdanel -

Excellent post. Post graduate education in many cases is alarming in terms of its costs. I am also extremely disheartened about the posture the current federal government takes on funding of secondary education all together - if you are not willing to invest in your future (i.e. the highly educated workers and trained citizens that we need to continue America going forward) and ALSO are seeking to curtail immigration, all I see given the current barriers being put into place is an even more polarized and economically segregated populace going forward. After spending some ridiculous amount to even get a four year BA or BS, that young adult will be fortunate to land a job that even starts out paying $35,000. While the CEO of the firm more than likely is bringing home a multi million dollar compensation package.

Maybe this should be a different thread, but THERE is a major sore spot with me. The compensation for top executives in American corporations is OBSCENE, and has grown at a simply phenomenal rate since the 1980's. The leadership is no better, employee morale is no better, returns for investors are no better - so why is this viewed as such a necessary part of American corporate mindset? Really, is it impossible to live high on the hog on a mere $1 million a year salary, do we need to be paying these people packages that often go into the multiple millions of dollars range?
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Ellienor
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Post by Ellienor »

An interesting question is what our "needs" are, how they are modulated by the times, and the fact that we perceive ourselves to "need" things today - even to find them vitally necessary as a matter of safety - despite the fact that people neither had nor "needed" these things 15, 20, 50, or 100 years ago.
Thanks Nerdanel. That was a very nice post. What I would like to add to that is the difficulty us first world types have in avoiding consumerism. Earlier in this thread I had talked about the book, COLLAPSE, by Jared Diamond, which analyzed societies which did collapse and societies that have continued for thousands of years without collapsing. One theme is both resilient environments (like in Europe) and resource conservation (not causing a net loss in resource, at least over a several hundred year time frame).

So, my take home from all this is to try to refrain from consuming resources. And in our household, we really try! I buy many clothes and toys for my kids at second hand shops (in a wealthy community, second hand shops have really great stuff! :D ), and we try hard to buy only what we "need". We try to keep to a minimum buying stuff, try to buy high quality that will last and do without until we can afford it. But in the First World, it is so hard to refrain from consuming! We are considering a new big TV to replace the 25 year old 19" guy that we have. But, of course, we don't "need" it. Ditto a new couch--what's wrong with the 15 year old Sears model that we currently have? Nothing really, other than its ugly and looks cheap. :) But I'd like to have those new items :blackeye: .

Regarding private education--my parents would only pay the equivalent of state school tuition, and I could go to whatever school I chose. I chose not to saddle myself with loans and went to the state school. :) My husband's parents sent him to a very expensive private university. We both ended up with the same degree, and has my husband's private school given him an advantage that mine did not? NO would be the correct answer. :) That being said, I do think that there are private schools that do give you extra prestige and open doors, which schools those are vary depending on the field of study. Want to open doors in engineering? Go to MIT or Stanford. Want to have carte blanche in law? Go to Harvard. ;)
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TheEllipticalDisillusion
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Post by TheEllipticalDisillusion »

""It's a required part of our everyday life. We have a refrigerator, we have running water, we have cellphones."
This is what happens when people get too comfortable, too complacent in their lifestyle; we begin viewing too many items as 'necessities' in life. They are necessities for our current standard of living, but they are not as necessary as food, shelter and clothing. It's dangerous to hoist these technological luxuries onto pedastals of need because when they breakdown, people panic, and forget how to be without them. Cell phones make things a lot easier, but personally, I went years without a cell phone and never viewed things as harder, just different.

My friend's mom gave her a cell phone back in the beginning of college just in case she got mugged. Neither of us saw the point since no mugger is going to let you call before forking over your possessions.

The student outrage at the cell phone ban is ludicrous. You don't need a cell phone at school. If you need to get in touch with your parents, use the school's phones in the office! I did that when I was in high school. I used to teach SAT prep and I had all the kids turn off their cell phones during class (or at least shut off the ringers). I did the same with mine. We could all survive those two and half hours without taking phone calls.
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Maria
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Post by Maria »

nerdanel wrote:20, 50, 100 years from now, people will have conveniences, technological and otherwise, that we have not even yet imagined. If history is any guide, OUR lives are going to seem hard (in ways we're not fully aware of) to people of the future.
I hope so, but fear that we will be telling our grandchildren of impossible technological marvels that are unavailable to them- stuff that will become the basis for new folk tales later on.

Ellienor wrote:I buy many clothes and toys for my kids at second hand shops (in a wealthy community, second hand shops have really great stuff! ), and we try hard to buy only what we "need".
Up until just a few years ago, I got all my kid's clothes from garage sales. I was very methodical about it, too, buying several sizes ahead that they would need through the winter as they grew, when garage sales were no longer being held. This didn't work so well after adolescence, but as pre-teens, they were quite happy with the clothes we'd find.

I still take spells of "garage saling" and plan a whole morning armed with newspaper ads and computer map printouts and drive around the city seeing what I can find. Just last year I found an AWESOME collection of old sci fi books, and bought about 50 or more at 10 or 25 cents apiece! :D:D That kind of find makes it all worthwhile.

I don't always find what I am looking for- I spent three weekends looking for a bigger bed for my son (he's gotten too tall for a twin bed, now) and eventually went to a furniture store out of sheer frustration- but I usually do OK.
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Post by Jnyusa »

Now that my girls are grown and both live in places that they have to furnish themselves, we've entered a wonderful phase of furniture swapping.

GD#1 just graduated to a 'big bed' passed down from D#2; I got back the coffee table loaned to D#1 and S-i-L#1 three years ago; and one of my bedrooms is storage for the dressers and desks that will be redistributed back to D#2 and S-i-L#2 when she finishes school and they look for a house. And the bed for GS#1 is just waiting for him to be big enough to use it.

Luckily one of us has always had either a spare bedroom or an unfurnished apartment that needed furnishing, and the surplus has rotated to whomever needed it. :)

We got all our baby furniture second-hand and turned around and gave it away to someone else who needed it when it became obsolete for us. I don't know how families could live if they didn't share things like that with one another because children outgrow everything so fast and what's the point of having baby furniture in your basement waiting for the next generation if someone else with a baby can use it right now?

We got lots of our baby clothes second-hand, too, and gave them away when they were outgrown. We figure ... about three babies to a onesie. :)

I wasn't lucky enough, though, to get through the pre-teens on second-hand clothing. By the time my daughters hit 5th grade, everything HAD to be new.

Jn
A fool's paradise is a wise man's hell.
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