Canadian and NZ elections

[Túrin Turambar]

While the U.S. election is dominating global headlines, it’s worth noting that both Canada and New Zealand are in the midst of election campaigns themselves (Canada goes to the polls on October 14, and NZ on November 8 ).

In both cases, a minority Government is facing re-election, in the same global political and economic climate. Still, they will probably turn out differently. In Canada, Stephen Harper has only been leader of the Opposition since 2002 (first as Leader of the Canadian Alliance, then as leader of the Conservative Party) and Prime Minister since 2006. In New Zealand, Helen Clark has led Labour since 1993 and been Prime Minister since 1999. So while the fairly youthful Harper Government is facing its first bid for re-election, the older Clark one is aiming for a fourth term.

Both countries use the Westminster Parliamentary system, which I imagine most of our posters here will by now be familiar with. As it is relevant to both countries, though, I’ll comment briefly on the difference between a minority and majority Government. A majority Government is one in which one party or coalition of parties holds more than 50% of the seats in a Parliament, and thus can govern in its own right. A minority Government occurs where no one party or coalition holds more than 50% of the seats, and therefore the Government depends on the support of minor parties and independents. In the Parliamentary system, a Government must be able to pass its budget and supply bills (bills authorising it to spend money) through Parliament. Therefore, minority governments need minor parties and independents to vote for its budget and supply bills and support it in confidence votes. Should it loose, then it is defeated and the Opposition forms Government or else the Parliament is ‘hung’ (no-one can form a Government) and a new election is held.

The Canadian Parliament is modelled on the British one in both form and function. It consists of the House of Commons, which is made up of 308 members elected from single-member electoral districts (called ‘ridings’) by first-past-the-post voting, and the Senate, which is made up of 89 Senators appointed by the Government (there have been numerous calls for Senate reform in Canada, to either make the Senate elected or abolish it). We need only concern ourselves with the House of Commons, which presently looks like this –

Conservative Party (Stephen Harper): 127 seats
Liberal Party (Stephane Dion): 95 seats
Bloc Québécois (Gilles Duceppe): 48 seats
New Democratic Party (Jack Layton): 30
Greens (Elizabeth May): 1
Independents: 3
Vacant: 4

155 seats are needed to form a majority Government. The Conservatives are currently in minority Government, with the support of the Bloc Québécois in supply and confidence votes.

The New Zealand Parliament consists of one house, the House of Representatives. It is elected using a variant of the German Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system. The country is divided into 63 general electorates, and, overlapping them, 7 Maori electorates, all of which return one member by first-past-the post. On top of that, it also has a varying number of members elected through proportional representation, with a threshold of 5% of the vote or 1 single-member seat. There are expected to be 50, making for 120 seats, but ‘overhangs’ and ‘underhangs’ are possible (at the moment, there are 121 seats due to an overhang). The current composition of the House is –

Labour Party (Helen Clark) – 50
National Party (John Key) – 48
NZ First (Winston Peters) – 7
Greens (Russel Norman / Jeanette Fitzsimons) – 6
Maori Party (Tariana Turia / Pita Sharples) – 4
United Future (Peter Dunne) – 3
Association of Consumers and Taxpayers/ACT (Rodney Hide) – 2
Progressive Party (Jim Anderton) – 1

This roughly comes out to:

‘Left’ – Labour/Greens/Progressives: 57
‘Right’ – National/ACT: 50
‘Other’ – NZ First/Maori/United Future: 14

Assuming that 120 MPs are returned, 61 seats will be needed to form a majority government. At the moment, the country is being run by a Labour-Progressive Coalition with support from NZ First, United Future and the Greens.

In Canada, the two main issues are the economy (pushed hard by the Conservatives) and the environment (pushed hard by the Liberals). Opinion polls suggest that the Government will be returned. In new Zealand, the economy and incumbent fatigue are the major issues, and opinion polls suggest that the Government will be defeated and John Key will be the next Prime Minister.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks, Lord M! We in the U.S. tend to think the whole world revolves around us, so its good to be reminded of what is going on elsewhere.

[Túrin Turambar]

Thanks, Lord M! We in the U.S. tend to think the whole world revolves around us

Well, by and large it does.

[Holbytla]

What is all this talk of there being a world outside of the US? I don't believe it for a second.

I can't claim to follow other countries elections or appointments or hostile takeovers more than briefly. I have a hard enough time dealing with ours. It would have to be pretty decent sized news for it to filter down to me unfortunately. Something I should try to do is be more aware at least.

I did use to watch British Parliament, but that was a while back. I know something of the goings on in Canada and Mexico for obvious reasons, but I can't claim to know much about what is going on down under.

Unless we are attacking you or you are attacking us, it isn't likely news of your country is going to make a splash here.

[Lurker]

Guide for 2008 Federal Election from the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops

15 September 2008
(CCCB – Ottawa)… With a federal election campaign underway, the Social Affairs Commission of the Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops (CCCB) has issued a guide inviting Catholics to vote but to do so with discernment.

In its “Federal Election 2008 Guide”, the Commission “encourages Catholics to become better informed about the issues, to voice their concerns with the political candidates … and, most of all, to vote.” The four-page text goes on to list some basic principles from Catholic moral and social teaching to help voters examine and evaluate public policy and programs.

These principles include respect for life and the dignity of the human person, as well as the preferential option for the poor. The text also addresses the question of the war in Afghanistan and the debate on the environment. The four Bishops who signed the document call on the political parties to “engage in a peace process for Afghanistan” and to ensure that “future generations … can have a healthy environment.”

The Social Affairs Commission admits that “choices can be tough” for Catholics when a political candidate or a political party holds “values that are not fully in line with Church teaching.” Citing the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, the CCCB Social Affairs Commission points out that “a well-formed Christian conscience does not permit one to vote for a political program or an individual law which contradicts the fundamental contents of faith and morals.”

Full text could be found on this site: http://www.cccb.ca/site/content/view/26 ... /lang,eng/

[Inanna]

ugh.

[Túrin Turambar]

Bit of Canadian psephology:

There’ve been a few rumours of an NDP ‘surge’ kicking around, so I went and checked out the wiki page on the opinion polling for the Canadian election.

As it turns out, the NDP vote does appear to be rising, but only slightly. The Conservatives are also polling a little better (maybe a point or two) than their 2006 result, although both parties are within the margin of error of their 2006 totals. The trend lines for the other three parties interest me more, though. The Liberals are clearly behind, by at least five points and very possibly more. The Bloc is also behind their 2006 result, although only by a few points. And the Greens have remained consistently well ahead by up to five points.

This is good news for the Conservatives – under Canada’s first past-the-post voting system, any gain by the NDP or the Greens at the expense of the Liberals is likely to see Liberal seats fall to the Conservatives, even if the Conservative vote stays constant.

[vison]

I think Harper will get a majority this time.

The Liberals are dead in the water out west, as usual. And Stephane Dion is incomprehensible in English, I'm not kidding. I usually have no trouble with accents, but this guy is hopeless. They play clips on the radio and have prizes for anyone who can decipher what he's saying. I long for Jean Chretien or Pierre Trudeau. Chretien had an accent, but he was easily understood by the most hidebound Anglo. Trudeau spoke perfect English, of course.

It's hard to read the NDP. Jack Layton isn't much liked.

[Lurker]

Yup, my parents are from Quebec and they couldn't understand what Dion is saying half the time.

I read Harper's mini-bio in the papers the other day and I am really impressed. The funny thing is he has an uncanny resemblance to Dion in his HS yearbook. I swear! Princess showed me Harper's HS picture and she goes "Guess who?" I go, "Dion!" She goes "Wrong, Harper!" I didn't realize he was a track star in HS, too. (yes, I have to insert that. )

I hope it's a majority I want that Young Offender's Act repealed. I want those kids do the time for their crime and their names out there.

In fact, I volunteered at the university fair a few days ago and I can't believe I had to go through too much security just to get in. I mean it's like getting in the airport. My bags were checked, I went through a metal detector as well. What in the world is happening to our kids!!!

[Túrin Turambar]

I think Harper will get a majority this time.

That's 29 new Conservative seats, isn't it? I'm trying to figure out what the vote totals would need to look like for that to happen, but it's difficult with so many parties holding seats.

[Frelga]

What is all this talk of there being a world outside of the US? I don't believe it for a second.

I don't if it's to or to

[Primula Baggins]

Sweden but not Norway? HEY!!!

Seriously, we are pretty pathetic.

[Túrin Turambar]

It's hardly only Americans who are guilty of that. How many non-Canadians or non-NZers follow Canadian and NZ politics? Still, elections in sizeable western democracies, especially those who have members on this board, are newsworthy enough to start a thread about IMHO.

Edit: I suppose I’m a little annoyed that half the posts in this thread have been about how people aren’t paying attention to the events being discussed in it. Obviously the average person doesn’t follow politics in other countries. That said, we obviously have a far more educated, politically involved and internationally-minded group of people here than in the population at large. It isn’t too hard to get up to speed with the political situation in another country enough to comment on it (and I'm certainly not a Canadian or New Zealander), or to ignore it if it doesn’t interest you that much (and I wouldn't blame you if it didn't).

[Primula Baggins]

Absolutely, Lord M. Please do carry on. How, otherwise, is the idea that there are other countries, with people living in them and everything, ever going to wedge itself into the cerebellar tissue of the board's Americans?

Edit: It's a little difficult at the moment to distract us, to be honest, with an election so critical to our country coming up so soon.

[Frelga]

I do apologize, Lord M. Honestly, my attention span will become global again come November 5.

[Túrin Turambar]

I'm not blaming anyone for not following elections halfway around the world. I was only complaining about the thread being full of posts to the affect of "ha, we're too dumb/uneducated to follow the events being discussed here!".

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Canada is closer to every single one of us Americans who post here than the state where one of the vice presidential candidates in our election is from. What happens there directly affects us here. I certainly am interested in what happens there (that is not to say I am not interested in New Zealand, but it does have less of a direct affect on me.)

[vison]

Yup, my parents are from Quebec and they couldn't understand what Dion is saying half the time.

I read Harper's mini-bio in the papers the other day and I am really impressed. The funny thing is he has an uncanny resemblance to Dion in his HS yearbook. I swear! Princess showed me Harper's HS picture and she goes "Guess who?" I go, "Dion!" She goes "Wrong, Harper!" I didn't realize he was a track star in HS, too. (yes, I have to insert that. )

I hope it's a majority I want that Young Offender's Act repealed. I want those kids do the time for their crime and their names out there.

In fact, I volunteered at the university fair a few days ago and I can't believe I had to go through too much security just to get in. I mean it's like getting in the airport. My bags were checked, I went through a metal detector as well. What in the world is happening to our kids!!!

The Young Offenders Act?

Well, there you are. It won't be repealed, although it might be altered somewhat. I'm not going to get into a debate over it with you, but I am going to say I am unalterably opposed to "tougher" measures for young offenders. The name issue? Meh, I'm not bothered much by that. But I am cheezed off that Youth Crime is being used as a talking point in this election, it's such BS, youth crime is NOT a big problem in Canada, there are many more important things to worry about. Like Afghanistan, for one thing. Etc.

And as for security, the Harper campaign often won't let reporters into a room and ask him questions, doing so under the pretext of "security". Yeah. He took too many lessons from G. W. Bush. I don't care if he was a fast runner in high school, that sort of stuff is meaningless to me. I loathe the man, so I better stop talking right now.

[Túrin Turambar]

And in some parochial news, it emerges that Stephen Harper’s 2003 speech supporting the Iraq War was plagiarised from John Howard. The speechwriter (now a campaign manager) has resigned over the issue.

Here’s a video from the Liberal campaign comparing the speeches.

[Túrin Turambar]

Well look at that - a week out from the election an support for the Conservative party has dived.

Did Dion soundly beat Harper in the debate or something? Or is it the stock market?