Canadian and NZ elections

[SirDennis]

-- casting an eye further up the thread to Wilma's thoughts on the chances of a Harper majority --

It's worth noting that even though Harper's party won more seats, a whack of his former cabinet ministers lost theirs. It's almost as if high profile members were turfed in favour of members of other parties, but in ridings where a Con hadn't displayed their quality already (such as Ontario) people were willing to give Harper's party a chance. That or what people are saying is true: the conservative gains in Ontario were the result of a backlash against the provincial Liberal government. I guess we'll find out this coming autumn.

[Túrin Turambar]

Also, L_M , I did not know wiping out parties was unique. Why do you think that is?

I honestly have no idea. It happens in other countries, but nowhere near to the extent that it does in Canada.

[SirDennis]

Well it's started... the cuts to government workers that is. Two smallish cuts have affected me personally. One was the loss of 300 jobs in this community due to the loss of a government contract. The other is cuts to a department I was actually merit listed to be hired into this fall. While they haven't yet said they will no longer be hiring us, I can't see how they can when a few dozen people are losing their existing jobs. On top of that the jobs that will be lost are in a community that is already devastated economically. Worser and worser -- the jobs were part of the infrastructure that saves hundreds of lives each year on Canadian waters. (Oh that's right the neocons call landlocked Alberta their spiritual home.)

How exactly conservatives believe that messing with people's hopes and livelihoods, and making the world riskier by cutting public safety workers creates economic stability I can't fathom...

In just over a month we went from having a minority government that was adding jobs to the economy to a majority government that is slashing jobs instead. I can't believe the majority of people that voted Harper in (actually a minority of voters, thank you opponents to proportional representation) fell for his Conservative Reform Alliance Party (that's right CRAP). Now we are stuck with him and I am seriously pissed.

[vison]

Well it's started... the cuts to government workers that is. Two smallish cuts have affected me personally. One was the loss of 300 jobs in this community due to the loss of a government contract. The other is cuts to a department I was actually merit listed to be hired into this fall. While they haven't yet said they will no longer be hiring us, I can't see how they can when a few dozen people are losing their existing jobs. On top of that the jobs that will be lost are in a community that is already devastated economically. Worser and worser -- the jobs were part of the infrastructure that saves hundreds of lives each year on Canadian waters. (Oh that's right the neocons call landlocked Alberta their spiritual home.)

How exactly conservatives believe that messing with people's hopes and livelihoods, and making the world riskier by cutting public safety workers creates economic stability I can't fathom...

In just over a month we went from having a minority government that was adding jobs to the economy to a majority government that is slashing jobs instead. I can't believe the majority of people that voted Harper in (actually a minority of voters, thank you opponents to proportional representation) fell for his Conservative Reform Alliance Party (that's right CRAP). Now we are stuck with him and I am seriously pissed.

I am with you. I heard interviews with fishermen in Newfoundland, on the CBC radio.

And then, the new prisons. And "tougher on crime". And shutting down the safe injection sites in Vancouver.

Argh.

You know, most Canadians just LOVE hearing that he's going to be "tougher on crime". Yeah, because it worked so well in the US. Let's try it.

Insane.

[River]

Okay, first of all, when conservatives prattle on about economic stability what they're really talking about is making the rich richer at the expense of the poor and the middle class. Look what's happened to the US middle class over the past 30 years or so. That whole thing about the wealth trickling down turns out to be a myth. Second, would it not be wise for you Canucks to learn from your neighbor's mistakes?

[vison]

Okay, first of all, when conservatives prattle on about economic stability what they're really talking about is making the rich richer at the expense of the poor and the middle class. Look what's happened to the US middle class over the past 30 years or so. That whole thing about the wealth trickling down turns out to be a myth. Second, would it not be wise for you Canucks to learn from your neighbor's mistakes?

Of course it would be wise. Therefore . . . it won't happen.

[Infidel]

Okay, first of all, when conservatives prattle on about economic stability what they're really talking about is making the rich richer at the expense of the poor and the middle class. Look what's happened to the US middle class over the past 30 years or so. That whole thing about the wealth trickling down turns out to be a myth.

According to this analysis of data from the Current Population Survey of the Census Bureau (from Oct 2008):

Last, we need to address the assertion that "the middle class is disappearing." Sounds like a bad thing, doesn't it: rich get richer, and so forth. So, I asked myself the question, Where is the middle class going? Once again using the Census Bureau's data, I think I figured it out: The middle class of yesteryear is indeed disappearing: it is getting squeezed, like toothpaste from a tube, into the income category labeled "greater than $100,000." Here's a crude movie depicting the squeezing of the middle class — into the unbounded top category of income. (Watch the number of earners in the far-right category grow over time.)

The "crude movie" is fourth graph down:
http://www.optimist123.com/optimist/200 ... about.html

[Túrin Turambar]

I keep meaning to post something about Jack Layton's death but I keep forgetting. There is an element of tragedy that, having built his party up to the point of becoming Opposition Leader, he held the position for only about a month. As far as the future goes, can the NDP maintian their success without him? Micharl Ignatieff was a gift to both the NDP and the Conservatives, and I have to wonder whether the whole system won't correct itself at the next election (assuming that the Liberals don't simply continue to put up unelectable leaders as they seem to have been doing since Paul Martin retired).

[vison]

I keep meaning to post something about Jack Layton's death but I keep forgetting. There is an element of tragedy that, having built his party up to the point of becoming Opposition Leader, he held the position for only about a month. As far as the future goes, can the NDP maintian their success without him? Micharl Ignatieff was a gift to both the NDP and the Conservatives, and I have to wonder whether the whole system won't correct itself at the next election (assuming that the Liberals don't simply continue to put up unelectable leaders as they seem to have been doing since Paul Martin retired).

I confess I am rather surprised at the outpouring of emotion over Layton's death. I was not a particular fan of his, although the quote I am using as my signature is from him. It's hard to argue with sentiments such as he expressed there.

I think that the last election showed a sort of firming up in Canadian politics between the Right and the Left. Canadians are famously middle-of-the-road people, but more of us are now going to one side or the other. Since I can't at all enter into Mr. Harper's mould of Conservatism, I am, perforce, pushed Left.

I am sorta secretly Left anyway, with large extrusions to the Right.

[SirDennis]

I used to be a member of the NDP.

Apart from Jack Layton's popularity and Quebecois finally realizing they were Social Democrats at heart, two important things happened within the NDP that helped vault them to official opposition status. One is they distanced themselves from the CAW who were always at odds (since splitting from the UAW) with the other big private union backing the NDP, the USWA. That is to say that it brought a level of internal peace the party hadn't known in years... though many CAW members remain(ed) true to the NDP.

The other, and I hate to say it, is that after years of languishing, due in part to our messed up first past the post voting system, the NDP chose a charismatic male as party leader. The sad apparent truth is that as egalitarian as Canadians are, we as a people (wide brushes be darned) are not ready for a woman in charge. This is not to say that I ever had a problem with prior leaders, obviously since when I was active, it was in the years between Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough (both recipients of the Order of Canada I might add). But for years this was a fear among activists; though the party's dramatic turn around in the number of seats can be attributed in part to what happened in Quebec and on the union front, it does seem to confirm the gender bias among voters as well.

Needless to say Jack Layton's death is a blow to the party, has lessened the brightness of the political landscape, and will prove a loss to our country over the next few years.

[vison]

I can't disagree with what you say except to say that a charismatic woman would have done as well. Who? Don't know. I bet there's one out there, though.

[SirDennis]

Yes maybe it was just that the past two leaders lacked that certain je ne sais quoi rather than the gender question? It really is hard to say...

[vison]

Yes maybe it was just that the past two leaders lacked that certain je ne sais quoi rather than the gender question? It really is hard to say...

Too bad there isn't a Mlle. Trudeau.

[Túrin Turambar]

Fun article on the difficulty of translating the insults of Quebecois parliamentarians into English.

[Hachimitsu]

I confess I am rather surprised at the outpouring of emotion over Layton's death.

I kind of wanted to point out that at least in Ontario, Jack Layton, even if a person didn't always agree with his politics, he came off as genuinely sincere. He wasn't paying lip service to things he said, and he was quite charismatic about everything he said. Also he he had a long career in Toronto as a city councillor and his actions backed up what he was saying. He genuinely did care about poor people and the homeless.

Also while I was growing up (and I noticed this from people younger then me), was that Layton and his wife would always go on MuchMusic . Which frankly is a channel aimed at people who aren't old enough to vote. No other party leaders would make that effort. So, when Jack Layton said he cared about Canadian youth, young people knew he meant it. That sort of sticks in a persons mind.

So when he got ill and when he did die, at least here, people felt we lost one of the few genuine caring politicians, hence the outpouring of emotion.

[Túrin Turambar]

I’m watching the returns from the current New Zealand election on TV now. On the whole, the right-leaning parties have had a good night. The Nationals are back in Government with 49% of the vote, although they seem to have fallen a seat short of a majority (they’re projected to win 60, they need 61). But their coalition partners, the libertarian ACT, have apparently been wiped out. United Future, the religious conservative party, haven’t done too well either, but between them those three parties should have a workable majority.

The other big news is the return of Winston Peters and his populist New Zealand First Party, which lost all its seats in 2008. The Greens have apparently pulled 10% of the vote and 13 seats, a record for them, although possibly short of their expectations.

Whether all this says anything about the attitude of Kiwis towards the financial crisis I don’t know. As I said upthread, Key is, like Stephen Harper, a pretty boring politician, and like Harper, has probably benefitted from being seen as a steady and competent leader for difficult times. The rise of NZF is interesting, and mirrors the rise of similar populist and nationalist movements in Europe of late.

The other major news is that, in a referendum held with the election, New Zealand has voted to retain its Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.

[SirDennis]

The other major news is that, in a referendum held with the election, New Zealand has voted to retain its Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.

Now there's a reason to celebrate. I doubt Harper would ever bring MMP to a plebiscite, at least not without also running a pretty hard anti-MMP campaign concurrently.

[Túrin Turambar]

I was going to comment on the recent Parti Quebecois victory in Quebec, but the entire thing has been overshadowed by the fatal shooting at the PQ victory rally.

The PQ appears to have given up agitating for another referendum on outright separation. I think this is wise, as I can’t see Quebec leaving Canada as anything other than a mad idea. It would cut itself off from the oil and mining wealth of the north and west for, as far as I can tell, nothing it doesn’t already have. Instead, they’re arguing for more control over certain policy areas, such as, interestingly, immigration. The Quebecois demand a level of integration from immigrants that I suspect an English-speaking province would not get away with, but nonetheless immigrants still tend to look upon themselves as Canadians first and Quebecois second. I suspect that immigration has been one of the factors eroding support for separatism, and I also suspect the PQ is aware of that.

Otherwise the election has probably been dominated, like elections everywhere else these days, by the economy and spending cuts (see the endless student protests in the streets all summer). One probably shouldn’t read all that much into the defeat of the incumbent Liberal Government for that reason.