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PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:56 pm 
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Latest presidential advice: vote twice!

https://theweek.com/10things/935600/10- ... ber-3-2020

Quote:
1. Trump urges North Carolinians to test system by illegally voting twice
President Trump on Wednesday said during a trip to North Carolina, a battleground state, that people should vote by mail and then cast another ballot in person, to test safeguards against double voting. "If their system's as good as they say it is, then obviously they won't be able to vote," said Trump, who has claimed without evidence that widespread mail-in voting will result in extensive fraud. It is illegal to intentionally vote twice. Attorney General William Barr echoed Trump's claim, telling CNN that mail-in voting "is very open to fraud," and people advocating expanded mail-in voting due to the coronavirus pandemic "are playing with fire." Barr also said that racism isn't "as common as people suggest" in protests against police shootings of unarmed Black men and women. [The Washington Post, CNN]


Yeah... do that... throw your vote away *and* get the bonus felony charges. :doh: :nono:

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:00 pm 
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What any good, upstanding, honest leader would encourage people to do! :roll: He's so off his rocker.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:36 pm 
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Not surprisingly (because I am me), I have been following the 538 election forecast closely over the last few weeks (despite everything). It has consistently showed Biden with between a 69% and 71% chance of winning. I checked it this morning, and that number had jumped to 74% (and Trump was at 25%, so the 74% is probably rounded down). Why the sudden jump? Is it the new revelations in Michael Cohen's book? I don't think so. I think it is Bob Woodward's book, featuring Trump's own words, particularly the revelation that he knew how bad the coronavirus pandemic was and deliberately played it down. Will it have a lasting impact? Hard to say.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:50 pm 
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The polls usually lag the big news like that by a couple days. I suspect it's more a reaction to the revelations about Trump's low regard for veterans. The COVID news isn't even 24 hours old yet. The Wilson Administration took the exact same strategy with the 1918 flu, BTW...if you want to know how that one ended, there's an excellent book on the subject (
Spoiler: show
it ends with bodies stacked like cordwood
).

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:55 pm 
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Yes, I once asked my mother if she remembered the end of WWI. She would have been 5 at the time. She said, no, she didn't but she DID remember the coffins stacked up at the railway station, where her father was the station agent. It would have made a big impression on her, because her mother lost her only sibling (a brother) to the flu. :cry:

This cartoon perfectly captures my reaction to the Woodward interview:


Attachments:
Trump and Woodward.jpg
Trump and Woodward.jpg [ 55.09 KiB | Viewed 242 times ]

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:41 pm 
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V, what was the error range of the 71%? Maybe 74% is within that.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:46 pm 
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Have heard of veterans removing their 'Trump' campaign signs from their lawns, and tossing them in the trash due to the report first published in The Atlantic!

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:31 pm 
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538's model is based polls, but they generate their forecast by plugging the poll values into a simulation, running that simulation 40000 times, and then picking 100 results. Today's forecast has Trump winning 25% of the time, Biden winning 74% of the time, and a tie in the Electoral College 1% of the time. It does not report error bars. This forecast does not guarantee either candidate a win or a loss.

Today's official COVID-19 death toll in the US is 191K. My family's last normal day was March 12, 2020. That evening, the schools shut down. The next day, we started rotating people in and out of the office. Because biotech is essential, I was given a letter to carry in case I got stopped on my way to work when my state went under stay-at-home orders. I was never stopped. The orders have relaxed. I still carry the letter.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:57 pm 
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Knowing what Trump knew and when he knew it, considering the spread and number of deaths, the distinct impression is that the "don't want to create a panic" concern was aimed at the stock market/economy more so than concern for public health. Knowing he knew early on that the virus affected the young/children while he was telling the public that the young were practically immune, is damning, imo. That he was willing to discuss these things (and other sensitive national security issues) with an investigative reporter for a book on tape demonstrates an ENORMOUS lack of judgement. Now that the likes of Jim Mattis and John Kelly are no longer being gatekeepers he's just running unfettered. No National security is safe with him. Loose lips sink ships.

Thomas Friedman has a piece in the NYT this week about the motivation of many Trump supporters which he feels is based not on policy, but on humiliation. They like that Trump humiliates those whom they hate and that is the appeal. That is why some of his supporters will never see (or perhaps do not care about) the incompetence.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:11 am 
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Joe Rogan has offered to moderate a 4-hour debate between the presidential candidates with no live audience, and Donald Trump has agreed. I doubt that Joe Biden would also agree, but I'd find it fascinating if it went ahead (Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard all appeared on Rogan's podcast during the campaign).


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:06 am 
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No comment.

However, this is interesting.
Trump campaign hammered for blowing $800 million with nothing to show for it as election heats up: report



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:28 am 
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Voronwë the Faithful wrote:

Smells scammy.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:51 am 
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I don't think very highly of Joe Rogan and I don't think we need to inject any more celebrity attention grabbing idiocy into our political process. Trump already treats the presidency as a reality TV show and his concern for 'ratings' is just ridiculous. He does not focus on the things he should be. He thinks the stock market is the same thing as the economy. Enough.

Trump doesn't have the nearly limitless questionably funded NRA slush fund this time around.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:28 am 
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I like Rogan because he never pretends to have knowledge which he doesn’t, and asks the sort of simple and common-sense questions which a lot of interviewers don’t seem to. At times he stands in for the ordinary voter of no strong political opinions, who could go one way or the other. And I think the fact that this is even being discussed recognises the importance of new media. A lot of people, particularly young people, would go to Rogan’s podcast for political news and commentary ahead of traditional outlets like CNN. Or another Youtuber of their preference, but Rogan is the biggest.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:19 pm 
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Why would a candidate agree to do a debate moderated by someone who has explicitly stated that he supports the other candidate, and who has made vile insults directed at the candidate because of a disability that the candidate has?

To say that I am not a fan of Rogan would be a vast understatement.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:02 pm 
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Joe Rogan (often referred to as 'Brogan') is what I'd call a toxic male, which is why his audience is overwhelmingly male. He somewhat fits in that category that used to be filled by Howard Stern before Howard got therapy and came to realize what a jerk he had been. Rogan offered to host which I'm guessing isn't the same as moderating a (real) debate. Why would Biden accept such a stupid offer considering how biased Rogan is? He's made plenty of derogatory comments about Biden and supports Trump, so he's far from neutral. Of course Trump would accept. He loves biased spectacle. This is the type of thing Trump and his cohorts cook up to keep them in the media/distract from what's really going on. Like getting Kanye West on the birthday party ticket. Rogan & Trump are cut from a similar cloth. Dabbling in pseudo-science and conspiracy theories when it suits them.

Rogan once tweeted that women who don't like kids reminded him of dogs who eat their own shit. I put no stock in such people.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:32 pm 
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Túrin, I want to apologize if I came across as 'shutting you down'. That wasn't my intention. It's a vast understatement that what passes for proper political discourse here in the states is beyond frustrating and the current administrations focus on ratings and spectacle is overwhelming. That Trump & his administration do nothing to quell outrageous conspiracy theories, promotion of lies, and incitement to violence is stomach churning. Our government has turned into a circus and it's not good for our nation. I believe a 'debate' 'moderated' by Joe Rogan would be nothing short of (another) shit-show for many reasons, not all of which would be due to Joe Rogan.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:59 pm 
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No problem - I appreciate Rogan has said a lot of things people find offensive and I don't think anyone needs to feel compelled to like him or his influence on public debate. I think a debate moderated by him would be far more interesting and less artificial than a debate on a mainstream media platform like CNN or Fox, but I can understand if others would find it a farce.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:24 am 
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Túrin, I have no idea what is available in your country that we see on a daily basis so our opinions likely form from exposure to different sources. Stephen Colbert has also offered to moderate such an extended debate (he is definitely on Team Biden). With other candidates such debates might be interesting but under the current circumstances I just do not see them as productive or helpful. Australian reporters have come here & been shocked at what they have seen and heard and what has passed as 'news conferences'. From day one Trump continued his rallies aimed at 'his base' and he treats news conferences pretty much the same way. He has never made an attempt to be a leader to the entire country or address the country as a whole but paints us as enemies. He does not treat anyone who is not his 'base' as full citizens. After yesterday's Town Hall, The NY Times’s Trip Gabriel tweeted: “When @JoeBiden debates Trump, he’ll be faced with what’s on display tonight: rapid fire falsehoods, free-ranging personal attacks, over the top claims of his achievements.” When people have no regard for facts, it's no longer a 'debate' or even a proper discussion. To me, Trump is little more than a Circus barker.

My sister works in a bar. She hears a lot and she says people aught to 'shut their pie-holes'. Lots of people in the US have guns. She says their will be blood shed before all of this is done. It's not a joke. It's not a circus. We don't need more spectacle.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:52 am 
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What Rose said.

I am a fan of Colbert and I think he would do a good job, but he is primarily a comedian. This debate needs to be moderated by someone who would focus on the issues, not on ratings, and who would force the candidates to stay on topic and back their statements with facts. Fat chance of that happening.

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