Election Predictions

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I moved the discussion about long lines to the "Voting Concerns" thread

[Túrin Turambar]

Alright, here goes:

I. Presidency

1. Who will win the Presidency?

Barack Obama

2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?

(a) Popular Vote 53-46
(b) Electoral Vote 393-145

3. Which states will go for which candidates?



Obama to carry all Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

II. Senate

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. Senate?

The Democrats.

2. What will be its composition?

59-41, including the two independents in the Democratic Caucus.

III. House of Representatives

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. House of Representatives?

The Democrats.

2. What will be its composition?

251-183

I'm feeling bold.

[yovargas]

Man, I'd be really happy if my problem-child state of Florida went my way and went to Obama.

[Túrin Turambar]

Florida seems fairly likely to go to Obama. My two long shots are Georgia and North Dakota - Obama is still slightly behind, but he's come up from way behind, so I'm taking a punt that he'll close the last couple of points this week.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

You might as well give him Arizona, too.

[Dave_LF]

My two long shots are Georgia and North Dakota

I think you've got more long shots than that, but I also expect people who still call themselves undecided to break strongly for McCain if they vote at all. Also, early voter data is showing that while blacks are indeed voting in record numbers, young people are not (and it seems like the youth would be the group most likely to vote early, if they were going to do it at all). In that spirit, I'll crosspost my secondary prediction here: close states where Obama is polling below 48% on Monday will go for McCain, even if McCain appears to be polling even lower. States where he's between 48% and 50% will be close.

The exception could be Montana, where Ron Paul will be on the ballot. I think that state is the one mostly likely to deliver a surprise Obama upset.

Edit: This prediction is very detailed and well reasoned. By which I mean that it mostly agrees with my own.

[axordil]

In many states that have early voting, first-time voters (meaning a chunk of young voters) cannot use it.

In any case, I have to disagree about young voters being the most likely to vote early. Historically it's always been the opposite.

[Dave_LF]

Well, young people tend to be more enthusiastic (this year), which is a factor that contributes to early voting. However, they also tend to be procrastinators, which pushes in the opposite direction. And if first-time voters can't vote early, that would be another push. So you might be right. :knock knock:

[Maria]

This completely unbased on any kind of logic or research: 297 electoral votes for Obama. I don't even know if that's possible, but that's what popped into my head when I guessed.

[River]

In many states that have early voting, first-time voters (meaning a chunk of young voters) cannot use it.

In any case, I have to disagree about young voters being the most likely to vote early. Historically it's always been the opposite.

I voted today. The early voting polling place I went to was on campus. The back of the line was at the 100 foot limit and people were piling in behind me. I was one of the oldest people in the line...and I'm 27!

[Cerin]

What is the '100 ft. limit', River?

[Dave_LF]

This completely unbased on any kind of logic or research: 297 electoral votes for Obama. I don't even know if that's possible, but that's what popped into my head when I guessed.

It is possible. For example, you could get it by giving Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada to McCain, and Virgina, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico to Obama (NV and NM could be the other way around since they're both worth 5). 538's simulations came up with that number about 3.5% of the time yesterday.

[River]

What is the '100 ft. limit', River?

I think that's how close you can come with campaign slogans or something. There was a big sign marking it and a bunch of people in Obama t-shirts had to strip to get past it.

Fortunately, they were prepared and were wearing undershirts.

A couple students, no idea who they were affiliated with, worked the line with free snacks and bottles of water. That was nice.

[Frelga]

306 - 232 Obama

Here's a cool toy for you all - an interactive map where you can assign states to each candidate (it starts with Kerry/Bush results so you don't have to do ALL the work) and see results, here: http://douweosinga.com/projects/thenextpresident

[Maria]

Thanks Dave! I was too lazy to look into that myself.

[WampusCat]

Obama 320, McCain 218.

Popular vote: 53-47 Obama

I simply can't be optimistic enough to call North Carolina for Obama.

[Túrin Turambar]

Just bumping to make a final call for predictions.

[Primula Baggins]

I made a big electoral vote prediction, and every time I think about coming in here to walk it back, I feel this sort of subterranean rumbling.

We'll see. It might be something I ate.

[halplm]

hello all. I feel tomorrow will be pretty crazy. thought I'd weigh in with a different view.

Obama takes Popular vote 51-47, due to massive wins in states he will easily carry.

McCain wins electoral college 273-265, causing massive chaos throughout the country as the election "must have been stolen."

My reasoning... that the polls are massively distorted for Obama, which pushes all swing states to basically even... Also, I think turnout will match traditional ratios, although it will be up on all sides. The net result is an advantage to McCain in swing states, leading him to win what he needs... the key in my opinion, is New Hampshire.

[Primula Baggins]

Well, Obama just took Dixville Notch, NH, 15-6. But that isn't determinative; Bush won in '04 and Kerry took the state.

We'll see what we see, Hal. I do want to point out that a 4-point popular vote margin would probably preclude a loss in the electoral vote. But again, we'll see.

About a third of us have already voted, too.