The Battle of the Five Armies: Predictions

[Beutlin]

It is that time of the year again. Tomorrow, December 1st, the last part of “The Hobbit” trilogy will premiere in London. Just like last year, I would like to hear your reception-predictions for this film. I would like to make clear that I do not put much stock in those numbers. “Tomatometers” and box-office numbers do not represent a film’s true value for me. Still, it is a fun little game to predict how a film will be received (in the near future – what the distant future holds remains to be seen.)

This year the prediction categories shall be:

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics
2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics
3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd)
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday)
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday)
6.) Total North American Gross
7.) World Wide Gross
8.) Oscar Nominations
9.) Oscar Wins

Explanations:

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics: The “Tomatometer” represents the percentage of professional critic reviews that are positive for a given film or television show. It is mainly used in film discussions by idiots who think that a film’s value can be scientifically quantified. “All critics” means that this “Tomatometer” represents all “professional” critics on “Rotten Tomatoes” which could amount to nearly 300 critics for this movie.
2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics: This Tomatometer only represents the main North American publications such as The New York Times or the Washington Post. The number of reviews never exceeds fifty.
3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd): Metacritic is a website that aggregates reviews of music albums, games, movies, TV shows, DVDs, and formerly, books. For each product, a numerical score from each review is obtained and the total is averaged.

Results for the last films:

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
1.) Tomatometer – All Critics: 64%
2.) Tomatometer – Top Critics: 46%
3.) Metascore: 58
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday): $84,617,303
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday): -
6.) Total North American Gross: $303,003,568
7.) World Wide Gross: $1,017,003,568
8.) Oscar Nominations: 3
9.) Oscar Wins: none

THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG
1.) Tomatometer – All Critics: 74%
2.) Tomatometer – Top Critics: 66%
3.) Metascore: 66
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday): $73,645,197
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday): -
6.) Total North American Gross: $258,366,855
7.) World Wide Gross: $958,366,855
8.) Oscar Nominations: 3
9.) Oscar Wins: none

Predictions 1-7 must be handed in until Sunday, December 7th. Oscar predictions can be made until January 14th. Predictions should be precise numbers (for example: 81% instead of 70–80%)

The overall winner wins a box of “Manner Schnitten” from me: http://www.manner.at/en

[yovargas]

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics 80%
2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics 77%
3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd) 73%
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday) $78 mil
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday) $90 mil
6.) Total North American Gross $301 mil
7.) World Wide Gross $1 bil
8.) Oscar Nominations 3
9.) Oscar Wins none

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'll need to give this some thought, but my initial sense is that yov's guesses are pretty good.

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[Voronwë the Faithful]

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics 79%
2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics 74%
3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd) 71
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday) $72 mil
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday) $94 mil
6.) Total North American Gross $297 mil
7.) World Wide Gross $1.05 bil
8.) Oscar Nominations 3
9.) Oscar Wins none

[Passdagas the Brown]

1.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – All Critics 76%
2.) Tomatometer (as of Monday, December 22nd) – Top Critics 74%
3.) Metascore (as of Monday, December 22nd) 70%
4.) North American Opening Weekend (Friday – Sunday) $83 mil
5.) North American Opening Five Days (Wednesday – Sunday) $94 mil
6.) Total North American Gross $320 mil
7.) World Wide Gross $1.1 bil
8.) Oscar Nominations 4
9.) Oscar Wins 1

[Smaug's voice]

Rotten Tomatoes All critics: 79%
Rotten Tomatoes Top Critics: 75%
Metascore: 68/100
Oscar noms: 5
Oscar wins: none

[yovargas]

Well, it seems PtB was the closest to predicting the awful RT score, though we were all way off....

[Passdagas the Brown]

What do I win?

[Beutlin]

What do I win?

The overall winner wins a box of “Manner Schnitten” from me: http://www.manner.at/en

Nothing yet, my friend. You have (most definitely) only won in three categories so far.

[Passdagas the Brown]

I love “Manner Schnitten”! Though I will never concede that they deserve the title of Neapolitan wafer.

[Beutlin]

Just to clarify: I will post the first five results on Monday evening. Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter is predicting that BOFA will make nearly $80 million dollars in the first five days:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... -80-757332

[Elentári]

Well, well... only 1 Oscar nomination for BotFA - Sound Editing...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Wow! I'm sorry, but that is ridiculous.

[yovargas]

I saw 4 out of 5 of the other FX nominees and I agree that those 4 had better effects than BOFA. Guardians should probably win.


I am Groot.

[Elentári]

I'm sad for Costumes and Production Design...they definitely deserved something.

[Smaug's voice]

Totally ridiculous.
I've seen all of those vfx films. I have no idea what was so special about the Capt.America 2 sfx.
BOFA I think has the best effects of the 3 TH films - far better than AUJ anyway which had got a Nóm.

The other ridiculous omission is Lego Movie from animation.

And of course, surprised by so few noms for Selma.

[Dave_LF]

Even this list of snubs snubbed them:
http://theweek.com/articles/533825/87th ... scar-snubs

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Totally ridiculous.
I've seen all of those vfx films. I have no idea what was so special about the Capt.America 2 sfx.
BOFA I think has the best effects of the 3 TH films - far better than AUJ anyway which had got a Nóm.

Interestingly, the Visual Effects Society did NOT nominate Captain America for "Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Photoreal/Live Action Feature Motion Picture" even though they had six nominees, compared to five for the Oscars. In addition to BotFA, they all nominated Maleficent as well as the other four that were nominated by the Academy.

BotFA was also nominated for three other awards by the VES, Outstanding Models in any Motion Media Project, Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal/Live Action Feature Motion Picture, and Outstanding Compositing in a Photoreal/Live Action Feature Motion Picture.

And of course, surprised by so few noms for Selma.

I'm not surprised. The Academy hates controversy, and there has been considerable (and ridiculous) controversy over the film's portrayal of Lyndon Johnson.

[Frelga]

I saw 4 out of 5 of the other FX nominees and I agree that those 4 had better effects than BOFA. Guardians should probably win.


I am Groot.

And the raccoon is pretty spectacular, especially since I understand fur is hard to animate.

[Smaug's voice]

Well, doesn't matter. It's far from the first time I've disagreed with the Academy's (biased) methods.